Search and SEO in 2013, 2023, and 2033: The More Things Change...

Slides from my talk at the Nottingham Digital Summit in June 2023, where I look back at the last 10 years of search and SEO and try to make predictions about the next 10 years for Google.

Transcript

1. #NottmDigital
   #NottmDigital
   SEO in 2013, 2023, and 2033:
   The more things change…
   Barry Adams
   June 2023
   

   View Slide

2. #NottmDigital
   #NottmDigital
   2013
   

   View Slide

3. #NottmDigital
   

   View Slide

4. #NottmDigital
   

   View Slide

5. #NottmDigital
   

   View Slide

6. #NottmDigital
   SEO in 2013
   • Post-Panda SEO;
   Thin & low quality content wasn’t rewarded
   ‘Great content’ started to make sense
   • Penguin in full swing;
   Targeting link schemes & unnatural links
   Penalises keyword stuffing & over-optimisation
   • Hummingbird update confirmed in Sept 2013;
   Full query text considered for rankings
   From ‘keywords’ to ‘topics’
   • Knowledge Graph in its infancy;
   Early stages with limited SERP impact
   

   View Slide

7. #NottmDigital
   SEO in 2013
   • Post-Panda SEO;
   Thin & low quality content wasn’t rewarded
   ‘Great content’ started to make sense
   • Penguin in full swing;
   Targeting link schemes & unnatural links
   Penalises keyword stuffing & over-optimisation
   • Hummingbird update confirmed in Sept 2013;
   Full query text considered for rankings
   From ‘keywords’ to ‘topics’
   • Knowledge Graph in its infancy;
   Early stages with limited SERP impact
   Business as usual
   (more or less)
   

   View Slide

8. #NottmDigital
   2015:
   RankBrain
   

   View Slide

9. #NottmDigital
   RankBrain
   • Enables relevant SERPs for unfamiliar queries
   • First time Google uses Machine Learning in search;
   Reluctantly
   • It opened the door for what came in 2018…
   

   View Slide

10. #NottmDigital
    Amit Singhal
    

    View Slide

11. #NottmDigital
    John Giannandrea
    Amit Singhal
    

    View Slide

12. #NottmDigital
    2018:
    The first ‘core algorithm update’?
    

    View Slide

13. #NottmDigital
    2018–now: ‘Core Algorithm Updates’
    • Machine Learning is increasingly driving SERP rankings;
    Less reliance on manually crafted ranking factors
    BERT & MUM are ML systems working on SERPs
    • Every core update is an improved ML model;
    Constant training on feedback provided by human quality raters
    • ML can do what manual ranking algorithms can’t;
    Deal with the insane chaos that is the World Wide Web
    

    View Slide

14. #NottmDigital
    But what about?
    ✔ Mobile-first Indexing
    ✔ HTTPS
    ✔ Core Web Vitals
    

    View Slide

15. #NottmDigital
    But what about?
    ✔ Mobile-first Indexing
    ✔ HTTPS
    ✔ Core Web Vitals
    Social Engineering Updates
    Intended to change WWW behaviours
    Mostly irrelevant to the bigger picture
    

    View Slide

16. #NottmDigital
    Google 2013-2023: Three Key Trends
    1. Machine Learning & AI;
    Moving away from manual factors
    

    View Slide

17. #NottmDigital
    #NottmDigital
    2023
    

    View Slide

18. #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

19. #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

20. #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

21. #NottmDigital
    Ads
    Local pack
    People also ask
    Organic results
    Related searches
    Knowledge graph
    Related entities
    

    View Slide

22. #NottmDigital
    SERP Features
    

    View Slide

23. #NottmDigital
    Google 2013-2023: Three Key Trends
    1. Machine Learning & AI;
    Moving away from manual factors
    2. SERP Features;
    Increased diversity in ranking types
    

    View Slide

24. #NottmDigital
    SERP Features & Knowledge Graph
    

    View Slide

25. #NottmDigital
    Knowledge Graph
    

    View Slide

26. #NottmDigital
    Knowledge Graph
    

    View Slide

27. #NottmDigital
    Knowledge Graph
    • Topical Authority
    • Authorship
    • E-E-A-T
    Expressions of the
    Knowledge Graph
    

    View Slide

28. #NottmDigital
    Knowledge Graph
    • Underpins most Google SERP features
    • Enables Google to understand entities & relationships
    • Empowered by Structured Data
    • Critical aspect of Google search quality
    

    View Slide

29. #NottmDigital
    Google 2013-2023: Three Key Trends
    1. Machine Learning & AI;
    Moving away from manual factors
    2. SERP Features;
    Increased diversity in ranking types
    3. Knowledge Graph;
    Not keywords, but entities & relationships
    

    View Slide

30. #NottmDigital
    #NottmDigital
    Generative AI
    

    View Slide

31. #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

32. #NottmDigital
    ChatGPT / Bard / SGE = LLM
    • Large Language Models
    • Basically predictive text on steroids
    

    View Slide

33. #NottmDigital
    LLM’s key problem
    

    View Slide

34. #NottmDigital
    Industrial Grade
    Bullshit Generators
    LLM’s key problem
    #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

35. #NottmDigital
    The solution..?
    

    View Slide

36. #NottmDigital
    The solution
    

    View Slide

37. #NottmDigital
    Knowledge Graph
    The solution
    #NottmDigital
    

    View Slide

38. #NottmDigital
    Search in 2033..?
    1. Machine Learning & AI;
    Black box systems
    2. SERP Features;
    Powered by AI and KG
    3. Knowledge Graph;
    Entities & relationships, accuracy
    

    View Slide

39. #NottmDigital
    2013
    

    View Slide

40. #NottmDigital
    2023
    

    View Slide

41. #NottmDigital
    2033?
    

    View Slide

42. #NottmDigital
    Insane* Predictions for 2033
    • Conversational search;
    Not queries, but conversations
    *Probably, maybe
    • Predictive search;
    Your device will give you the answer before you ask
    • Headless websites;
    No front-end, just data for search engines
    

    View Slide

43. #NottmDigital
    #NottmDigital
    Thank You
    barry@polemicdigital.com
    @badams
    /in/barryadams/
    

    View Slide