Lightning Activity Predictions For Single Buoy Moorings

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September 12, 2013

Lightning Activity Predictions For Single BuoyĀ Moorings

A short talk that I gave at the LIGHTS 2013 Conference (Johannesburg, 12 September 2013). The slides are a little short on text because I like the audience to hear the content rather than read it. The objective with this project was to develop a model which would predict the occurrence of lightning in the vicinity of a Single Buoy Mooring (SBM). I used data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). I considered four possible models: Neural Network, Conditional Inference Tree, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. Of the four, Random Forests produced the best performance. The preliminary results of the model are very promising: there is good agreement between predicted and observed lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the SBM.



September 12, 2013