Agile Estimation? I guess. Elevating the art of guesswork 

When can I have it? How much will it cost? What will I get? 

But They’re Really Asking Can we get this to market before … — The competition does? — Customers ask for something else? — I change my mind? — The market shifts? 

They Need Options 

Our 1st Reaction 

Our 2nd Reaction 

Fear of Commitment 

How DO We Answer? 

The Challenges 

The Cone of Uncertainty 100% 200% 400% 50% 25% Time Actual Completion Realistic Projections Typical Projections 

The “Confidence” Factor Earliest possible 200% Confident 50% Confident 

Precision 3.1415926535897932 384626433832795 3.14 3 

Precision vs Accuracy Precise, but … WOW, Both!! On average, accurate 

Predicting the Future 

Ever Moved Before? 

How Many Boxes? 

Whew, we’re done !!! 

Or, are we? 

Projects Can Be Much Like Moving 

Agile 

Agile Software Manifesto Fundamentally it is the application of continuous improvement and common sense to methodology www.agilealliance.org We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: –  Individuals and interactions over processes and tools –  Working software over comprehensive documentation –  Customer collaboration over contract negotiation –  Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more 

Agile Software Development Manifesto Individuals and interactions Processes and tools over Working software Comprehensive documentation over Customer collaboration Contract negotiation over Responding to change Following a plan over That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more. We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: http://www.agilemanifesto.org 22 

What is “Agile” all about? — “Agile” is an umbrella term used to describe a variety of methods that encourage continual alignment of development with the needs and expectations of the customer. —  Extreme Programming (XP) —  Scrum Development (Scrum) —  Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC) —  Dynamic Systems Development Method (DSDM) — The Agile Manifesto provides a concise statement of beliefs held in common by the developers of these varied methods. 23 

How Agile Works Product Backlog Iteration Plan(s) Release Chart Iteration Chart(s) Release Cycle Preliminary demonstrations occur here Product release occurs here Finished work items appear as accomplishments Product 

Agile Planning — There are two major approaches to controlling any process: —  A “Defined” process model which assumes every piece of work to be completely understood. —  An “Empirical” process model which expects the unecpected by frequent observation of results. —  Agile is an empirical process model which recognizes that software by its nature cannot be completely known in advance. —  Research shows an average of 20-40% requirements change over the course of product development. 25 

Estimation Exercises 

Seats in Here? 

Collective Years of Experience? 

Conference Attendees? 

Different Methods Intuitively Analytically Empirically 

A Brave New World 

Agile Programming 32 

Inverting the Iron Triangle Fixed Estimated Resources Time Features Requirements Resources Time Waterfall is Plan Driven Agile is Feature Driven 33 

5 Levels of Planning Daily Sprint Release Roadmap Vision 

Roadmap Planning Release Planning Sprint Planning Themes Epics Stories Tasks Daily Planning Finer Levels, Finer Detail 35 

Themes Epics Stories Tasks Finer Detail, Finer Estimates 36 

Estimating Stories 

User Stories 38 

User Stories as Units “A user story is a software system requirement formulated as one or two sentences in the everyday language of the user.” As a guest I would like to book a cruise. As a guest I would like to book a cruise. 39 

Independent Negotiable Valuable Estimable Small Testable INVEST in Stories As a , I want so that . Verify that: - - … 

Estimating Volume 

Estimating Circles 

Estimating Squares 

All Shapes & Sizes 

Theory of Relativity 

Our Scale 

Planning Poker 

Why Fibonacci? 

Evidence 

Stacking the Deck 

Scope of Estimation 

Agile Practices Performed By The Team Collaborating Defining Planning Tracking Developing Testing Releasing Whole Team Sitting Together Stand-Up Meetings Information Radiators Sustainable Pace Ubiquitous Language Incremental Requirements User Stories Executable Requirements Estimating Vision Planning Game Release Planning Iteration Planning Risk Management Schedule Buffer Reporting Iteration Demos Root-Cause Analysis Spike Solutions Retrospectives Coding Standards Pair Programming Refactoring Simple Design Test-Driven Development Collective Ownership Acceptance Tests Test First Performance Optimization Exploratory Testing Unit Tests “Done Done” No Bugs Version Control Ten-Minute Build Continuous Integration Post-Hoc Documentation 52 

You Need a “Done” Checklist —  This is NOT the same as Acceptance Criteria —  It applies to ALL stories —  It should start with … —  All tests to confirm the story have been agreed —  All tests to confirm the story have been written —  All tests to confirm the story have been passed —  The story has no defects —  It should end with … —  The code is production quality —  The product is ready for production, if the Product Owner accepts it —  It should include … —  Whatever the team agrees is necessary to produce a quality product —  Whatever the business team agrees is necessary to make it operational 

Estimating Tasks 

Task Planning As a , I want so that . Verify that: - - … a Story card Task cards 

As a , I want so that . Verify that: - - … Stories & Tasks Task #5 Task #4 Task #3 Task #2 Task #1 

As a , I want so that . Verify that: - - … Well-Defined Tasks Task #5 Task #4 Task #3 Task #2 Task #1 Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant Time-bound 

Task Sizing 

Task Sizing 

Are You Gonna Be Done? 

Re-Estimate 

The Ideal Leading Indicator Knows how much work remains Knows how many work hours remain 

Forecasting the Future 

Velocity 

Yesterday’s Weather 

Release Burnup Chart 6.25 11 18 25.5 24 28 36 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Points Sprints Release Progress Cumulativ e Points Description Simple tool for Team to track progress during a Sprint. Key Characteristics "   Shows work remaining, not work completed "   Allows analysis of true Team capacity Managed by Team, ScrumMaster 66 

Story Point Burn-up Story Points 67 

A Very Cool Tool 

Audience Feedback 69 

[email protected]