Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

1 Demo of the tool and software for sustainable transport 2 I: Software 3 II: The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT): context, design and features 4 III: Uses of the PCT 5 IV Future research ideas Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Presentation structure Demo of the tool and software for sustainable transport Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT): design and development Uses of the PCT Future work Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Demo of the tool and software for sustainable transport Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Live demo of the PCT See http://pct.bike/ Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Software as tools Figure 1: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

The wider context Figure 2: for recumbents Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

I: Software Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Transport planning tools: expensive. . . Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

And potentially dangerous! Figure 3: Source: Who will save us from transport models (Hollander 2015) See also work by Robert Bain Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

The solution New breed of software products Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Why open source? The global transition away from fossil fuels is big business Many planners are scrambling to make their cities healthier and cleaner But if solutions cannot be controled and shared, how can they scale? Which companies are ready for a transition away from fossil fuels: Arup? Steer Davies Gleave? Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Tools of the trade: general to specific Figure 5: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

R’s spatial ecosystem Figure 6: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

QGIS Figure 7: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

New software: aequilibrae Figure 8: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

MATSim Figure 9: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

SUMO Figure 10: http://www.dlr.de/ts/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-9883/ 16931_read-41000/ Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Why R? See the free, open source, online tutorial github.com/robinlovelace/Creating-maps-in-R. Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

The packages used Can be installed and loaded in 6 lines of code: pkgs <- c("devtools", "shiny", "rgdal", "rgeos", "ggmap") # of install.packages(pkgs) library(devtools) # enables installation of leaflet gh_pkgs <- c("rstudio/leaflet", "robinlovelace/stplanr") install_github(gh_pkgs) # install packages on github lapply(c(pkgs, "leaflet", "stplanr"), library, character.only Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

RStudio RStudio Desktop is highly recommended for Shiny development. Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Shiny shiny is a framework for creating online interactive data visualisation ‘apps’. A framework for making R output interactive An ‘app’ development framework A (small) growing community of developers centred around RStudio A way to structure online tools: separation of GUI and server via server.R and ui.R files. Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

II: The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT): context, design and features Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Policy context House of Commons Criticising the DfT for using closed models ‘Impact’ and ‘engagement’ increasingly important for research funding Complex data cannot be adequately summarised in a single static graphic Phase I: proof of concept (February - August 2015) Phase II: nationwide deployment (November 2015 - March 2017) National launch: July 2016 See: cedar.iph.cam.ac.uk/research/modelling/npct-tool Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Modelling context Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Interactive online tools AURIN Leeds-Bradford cycle path interactive map DECC’s ‘Energy 2050’ planning tool Walkability index site Interactive download of bicycle paths Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Design criteria Interactive basemap Points, lines and polygons Cascading effects of different scenarios Tidy! Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Early user testing Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

The underlying theory Model works at the ‘desire line’ (or orgin-destination) level Uses ‘distance decay’ + hilliness to estimate which existing trips could be cycled Other factors (e.g. demographics, route network characteristics) could be added Local impacts of meeting national targets Any model could be used to create scenarios of the future - e.g. for local targets Check out our paper: http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.04425 Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Zoom-dependent selection and freeze Scope Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Phase I (Feb - July 2016) Build and test a prototype model Identify ‘desire lines’ of greatest potential Make the tool scalable nationally Create a website that will make the Propensity to Cycle Tool a publicly accessible resource Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Phase II (January 2016 - March 2017) Version 1 - nationwide (V1 launch: June 2016) Route-allocated hilliness, network layer (complete) Include health outcomes (HEAT) National-level results (Anna Goodman) V1.5 - smaller (LSOA) zones (Jan 2017) Training Version 2 - local deployment Include non-commute trips Compatibility with Local Authority trip demand models Micro-level analysis (V 2.2) Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Additional work/spin outs Case studies of use (e.g. Manchester, Kent, Yorkshire) Method for identifying severance Case study along HS2 route ‘Hackathons’ to stimulate the tool’s development Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Interactive map of current flows Figure 12: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Route allocation Figure 13: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Route network analysis Figure 14: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Zoom to a specific area Figure 15: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

III: Uses of the PCT Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

What kind of questions can it help answer? Where should we build for existing cyclists? New cyclists in the medium term? Long-term strategy? The question depends on the city Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

4 scenarios of change Government Target Gender Equality Go Dutch Ebikes Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Scenario shift in desire lines Figure 16: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Scenario shift in network load I Figure 17: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Scenario shift in network load II Figure 18: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Example: Trinity Way, Manchester Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Example: Where to build cycle paths in Leeds? See pct.bike/west-yorkshire Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

IV Future research ideas Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Future development (near term) Estimating cycling rate allocated to the road network with https://t.co/DuzyCQCA50. Looks like streams + rivers! pic.twitter.com/geaV0mVKdG — Robin Lovelace (@robinlovelace) August 17, 2015 Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Potential futures: e.g. community contributed Custom scenarios (e.g. 20% cycling by 2020 in Bristol) Combining with route-network data, e.g. via link to sDNA Scenarios estimating impacts from specific interventions International comparisons of propensity to cycle A global propensity to cycle map? Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

How could transport infrastructure change if people worked from home? Figure 19: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

How best to reallocate space away from cars? Figure 20: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

How transport engineers can encourage car sharing? Figure 21: Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Fork my code! Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53

Links and references R vs QGIS for transport planning: http://robinlovelace.net/r/ 2015/04/20/r-vs-qgis-for-transport.html Aequillibrea: transport planning toolbox - http://www.aequilibrae.com/ Lovelace, R., Goodman, A., Aldred, R., Berkoff, N., Abbas, A., & Woodcock, J. (2015). The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An open source online system for sustainable transport planning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.04425. Use Google and your imagination Code is good but start with a pen and paper! ## [1] FALSE Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds. Modelling cycling potential for sustainable transport planning: the ‘PCT’ 2016-05-09. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace / 53