Island  Climate  Update  180   Forecast  period:   September  –  November  2015   Teleconference  Thursday  3rd  of  September  2015   (11:30  AM  NZ  Dme)   3/09/15   1   

1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecDon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (August  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaDon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaDon  (MJO)  diagnosDcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     3/09/15   2   Outline     

1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec

Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM  /  GPM)     3/09/15   4   

3/09/15   5   hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml   

3/09/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   

SST  anomalies  July  2015   SST  anomalies  August  2015   3/09/15   7   

3/09/15   8   

2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa

SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   3/09/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10   

The  ENSO  Precipita

Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   3/09/15   12   hTp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   3/09/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   July  2015     August  2015     Last  5  days  (1  September)   

3/09/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   

ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       3/09/15   15   CPC/IRI  Early-­‐Month  Consensus  ENSO  Forecast  ProbabiliDes   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliDes     Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   SON  2015   0%   3%   100%   DJF  2015/16   0%   1%   99%   MAM  2016   0%   9%   91%   

3)  MJO  diagnos

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts  (SON  2015)   3/09/15   20   

3/09/15   21   

3/09/15   22   METPI  rainfall  results   September – November 2015 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 20 30 50 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tokelau 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Samoa 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Wallis & Futuna 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High FSM 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 40 20 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 45 35 20 BELOW High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW High Society Islands 45 35 20 BELOW High Solomon Islands 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 50 30 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 50 30 20 BELOW High Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW High Vanuatu 50 30 20 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is an overall assessment of the expected rainfall relative to normal for the time of year. 

3/09/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   

6)  METPI  SST  forecasts  (ASO  2015)   3/09/15   24   

3/09/15   25