フィジカルな店舗小売が意味を変える中、商業施設の未来はどのようになるのか / With physical retail changing its meaning, what does the future hold for commercial property

by Mizuki Takenobu

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ࡀɺࣇʢখֶੜɾ༮ࣇʣͷ෕ɻ େֶ೥ͷ݄ʹ݁ࠗͨ͠ɺݩ ֶੜύύɻ ஛৴ ਸ਼جʢ͚ͨͷͿ Έ͖ͣʣ BEQU04 1SPEVDU0XOFS 3FTFBSDIFScͨ·ʹ ళ௕ ̍ ̎ ̏ !NJ[VLJ@UBLFOPCV ৽ଔ͸ϦΫϧʔτɻ 508/803,"QQ1E.ˠ+1ͷ )3෦໳ -FBE"OBMZTU NJ[VLJUBLFOPCV $06/5&3803,4ɿΠϯλʔϯˠۀ຿ҕୗˠਖ਼ࣾһɻ ۀ຿ҕୗͱͯ͠ମݧܕళฮʮBEQUʯ্ཱͪ͛Λߦ͍ɺ BEQU041SPEVDU0XOFSͱͯ͠ೖࣾɻ

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8 57ͷফඅ࣌ؒྔਪҠ ωοτɺܞଳɺεϚϗͷফඅ࣌ؒྔਪҠ ग़యɿ.$3೥ ʗ .$3FY೥ ౦ژLNݍ உঁࡀ ফඅऀͷ࣌ؒফඅͷʮεϚϗγϑτʯ ੜ׆ऀͷมԽɿߦҝΛܾΊΔϝσΟΞ઀৮

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9 ̍ϝσΟΞͷ৘ใ͕෼ࢄԽ͍ͯͨ࣌͠୅ ݸʑਓ͕֤ʑͷ޷ΈΛ࣋ͪɺผʑͷझ޲ੑΛ͍࣋ͬͯͨ ݸੑͷڧ͍ʢʹ৘ใ֨ࠩͷେ͖ͳʣ࣌୅ ̎ςϨϏ͕ू໿తͳ৘ใऩूखஈͩͬͨ࣌୅ Ұఆͷ৴པ౓ͷ͋ΔϝσΟΞ͕தԝूݖతʹ৘ใൃ৴͍ͯͨ͠ ಉ͡৘ใΛڗड͠ɺಉ͡΋ͷΛߪೖ͠ɺಉܳ͡ೳਓΛ޷͖ʹͳΓʜ ݸʑਓͷझຯᅂ޷͕ू໿Խɾಉ࣭Խ͍ͯͨ͠ ̏εϚϗͰΠϯλʔωοτΛ௨ࣗ͡Β৘ใΛऔಘ͠ʹ͍࣌͘୅ ৘ใ͸ڗड͢Δ΋ͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɺࣗΒ๬ΜͰऔಘ͠ʹߦ͘ ݸਓͷᅂ޷ੑΛڧ͘൓өͨ͠৘ใऩू͕༰қ͔ͭ௿ίετʹ ݁Ռͱͯ͠ɺݸʑਓͷझຯ͕ਂԽ͠΍͘͢ɺࡉ෼Խ͍ͯ͠Δ ～70s 80s～00s 10s～ ੜ׆ऀͷมԽɿϝσΟΞ઀৮͔ΒมΘΔଶ౓ม༰

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10 ڵຯ͕ࡉ෼Խ͞ΕΔதɺ&$த৺ͷখن໛ɾଟ༷ͳϒϥϯυ͕૿Ճɻ ͜Ε·Ͱͷϒϥϯυ A C ԯ ԯ B ԯ େྔੜ࢈େྔফඅΛഎܠʹ࡞ΒΕ͍ͯΔ Ϛεड͚͠΍͍͢ϒϥϯυ͕ओྲྀɻ ͜Ε͔Βͷϒϥϯυ " # $ % & ' ( ԯ ԯ ԯ ԯ ສ ສ ԯ ༷ʑͳνϟωϧͰ৘ใྲྀ௨͢ΔΑ͏ʹͳΓ Ձ஋؍΍޷Έ͕ଟ༷Խɻ খͯ͘͞΋࣋ଓՄೳͳ঎ച͕രൃతʹ૿Ճɻ Ϧςʔϥʔ ςφϯτͷมԽɿڵຯͷࡉ෼Խ &$ຄڵʹ߹Θͤͨϒϥϯυ૿

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11 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ଟ਺ͷϓϨΠϠʔ͕ গ਺ͷڧ͍ϑΝϯΛ֫ಘ গ਺ͷڧ͍ϓϨΠϠʔ͕ ଟ਺ͷϑΝϯΛ֫ಘ ैདྷϒϥϯυ ࿏໘΍঎ۀࢪઃ ͷৗઃళฮ Ϛε޿ࠂ౳Ͱͷϒϥϯ σΟϯάɾೝ஌֦େ ଟళฮల։ ൢച໘ੵͷ֦େ ϦεΫͷখ͞ͳ &$Ͱͷग़ళ &$Ͱͷച্૿Ճ ৽ڵϒϥϯυ 4/4Ͱͷ֦ࢄޱίϛ Ͱೝ஌֦େ Ϧςʔϥʔ ςφϯτͷมԽɿϒϥϯυͷ੒௕ϞσϧͷมԽ

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12 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ۙ೥ͷਓ݅අߴಅɺ೥ͷফඅ૿੫ʹՃ͑ɺ$07*%ʹΑΔ٬਺େ෯ݮ͔Βɺ ച্ʹର͢Δৗઃళฮͷίετൺ཰͕ߴ͍اۀ΄ͲɺܦӦϦεΫ͕ߴ·Δɻ Ϧςʔϥʔ ςφϯτͷมԽɿ<"GUFS$07*%>ΑΓΩϟογϡγϏΞͳ؀ڥʹ 12 ਓ݅අߴಅʹՃ͑ফඅ૿੫ΛཁҼʹɺ ೥౓ͷҿ৯ۀͷ౗࢈݅਺͸աڈ࠷େϨϕϧʹɻ ۓٸࣄଶએݴޙɺ౗࢈݅਺͕Ճ଎౓తʹ૿Ճɻ ཱྀߦɾҿ৯ɾҥྉখച͕ 501 リーマンショック東日本大震災消費税 8%に消費税 10%に ೥ʮҿ৯ۀ౗࢈ಈ޲ʯௐࠪʢגࣜձࣾ౦ژ঎޻Ϧαʔνʣ IUUQTXXXUTSOFUDPKQOFXTBOBMZTJT@IUNM ʮ৽ܕίϩφ΢Πϧεʯؔ࿈౗࢈ঢ়گʢגࣜձࣾ౦ژ঎޻ϦαʔνʣIUUQTXXXUTSOFUDPKQOFXTBOBMZTJT@IUNM 宿泊・旅行関連を中心に先行自粛後、さらに飲食・衣料小売に徐々に波及

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14 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ● ফඅऀ ● ςφϯτ Ϧςʔϥʔ ● ঎ۀෆಈ࢈σϕϩούʔ ঎ۀࢪઃͷมԽɿʮ঎ۀෆಈ࢈ͷϚΫϩ؀ڥͷߏ଄มԽʯ͕͞ΒʹՃ଎ ΦϯϥΠϯετΞ (PPHMF5SFOETIUUQTUSFOETHPPHMFDPKQUSFOETFYQMPSF RΦϯϥΠϯετΞ 3&*4 ΞϝϦΧ -%$ ΠΪϦε 14 ۓٸࣄଶએݴҎ߱ɺʮΦϯϥΠϯετΞʯͷݕࡧ͕ٸ্ঢ͠ɺ ݄࣌఺Ͱલ೥ಉ݄ൺ ഒҎ্ʹ ΞϝϦΧɾΠΪϦεͷ঎ۀࢪઃ ฏۉۭࣨ཰ ਪҠʢ ʣ :P:9 (PPHMF5SFOE ೔ຊʹ͓͚ΔʮΦϯϥΠϯετΞʯͷ੒௕཰ʢ ʣ ೔ຊΑΓઌߦͯ͠খചͷ &$Խ͕ਐΉถࠃɾӳࠃͱ΋ʹɺ ঎ۀࢪઃͷۭࣨ཰͕೥ʑ্ঢ͠ɺৗઃళधཁ͕ݮୀ ୳ࡧࡐʢௐ΂Ε͹ػೳ͕Θ͔Δ΋ͷʣΛத৺ʹɺʮΦϯϥΠϯετΞͰߪೖʯ͢ΔྲྀΕՃ଎ɻ ࣮ళฮͰͷച্ݮɻۓٸࣄଶએݴԼʹΑΔΩϟογϡγϏΞͳঢ়ଶ͔Βʮৗઃళ͔ΒͷୀళʯՃ଎ɻ ʮطଘখചۀෆৼʯͱʮৗઃళϦεΫ֦େʯʹΑΔɺʮ௕ظݻఆ௞ିෆಈ࢈ͷआΓखʯݮɻ

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16 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ۜͷ஄ؙͰ͸ͳ͍ʮΦϯϥΠϯʯɿ૿͑Δళฮɺ಄ଧͭՄॲ෼࣌ؒɺܹԽ͢Δڝ૪ ৘ใ௨৴നॻ ૯຿ল IUUQTXXXTPVNVHPKQKPIPUTVTJOUPLFJ ֤ࣾ*3ΑΓूܭ͠ɺ$06/5&3803,4ʹͯ࡞ਤɻ 16 ओཁΦϯϥΠϯετΞͷग़ళళฮ਺ਪҠ ● &$Խ཰͸৳ͼΔ΋ɺʮ&$ࢢ৔੒௕཰ ΦϯϥΠϯετΞ਺ͷ૿Ճʯ ͱ ΦϯϥΠϯ্Ͱͷڝ૪͕ܹԽɻ ● ୅ͷεϚϗอ༗཰͸ ׂҎ্ͰʮϢʔβʔ਺͕಄ଧͪʯɻεϚϗར༻࣌ؒ΋ ׂ͸ 4/4Ͱɺʮγϣοϐϯά͸ ׂະຬʯɻ ೥Ͱ ഒ ೥Ͱ ഒҎ্ ೔ຊͷ&$ࢢ৔ͷ੒௕ਪҠ

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17 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ਐΉ ΦϜχνϟωϧ ɿʮମݧͷ৔ʯͱͯ͠ͷ࣮ళฮͷ׆༻͕ϢχοτΤίϊϛΫεΛߴΊΔ 0NOJ$IBOOFM3FUBJM3FQPSU(FOFSBUJPOBM$POTVNFS4IPQQJOH#FIBWJPS$PNFT*OUP'PDVT*UT*NQPSUBODFJO&DPNNFSDF CJHDPNNFSDFIUUQTXXXCJHDPNNFSDFDPNCMPHPNOJDIBOOFMSFUBJMXIZVTDPOTVNFSTTIPQXIFSFUIFZTIPQ 8IBUJT0NOJDIBOOFM.BSLFUJOH #FTU1SBDUJDFTGPS&DPNNFSDF PNOJTFOEIUUQTXXXPNOJTFOEDPNCMPHPNOJDIBOOFMNBSLFUJOH 17 ● &$Խ཰͕ΑΓਐΉΞϝϦΧͷফඅऀௐࠪͰ͸ɺ࣮ళฮͷՁ஋ͱͯ͠ʮࢼணɾମݧʯ͕େ͖͘઎ΊΔɻ ● ࣮ࡍʹΦϯϥΠϯͱ࣮ళฮΛซ༻͢Δ͜ͱͰ ߪೖ཰ɾߪೖֹɾܧଓར༻཰ ͕ ͢΂ͯվળ͢Δ܏޲ɻ → ࣄۀ֦େʹ͓͍ͯʮೝ஌ɾૹ٬ʯΛߴΊΒΕΔ࣮ళฮͱɺʮܨ͕Γɾ࠶ߪങʯΛߴΊΔΦϯϥΠϯͰͷΦϜχνϟωϧઓུͰͷڝ૪ʹɻ 顧客接点を長く持ち続けるほど積み上がる「レイヤーケーキ」 ళฮɾ8FCɾΞϓϦɾ4/4ͱෳ૚తͳλονϙΠϯτ૑ग़Ͱ ച্ͷϨΠϠʔέʔΩߏ଄Λ࡞Δɻ ࣮ళฮͰߪೖ͢Δཧ༝ͱͯ͠ଟ͘ͷੈ୅Ͱ ʮࢼணɾମݧʯΛڍ͍͛ͯΔ ࣮ళฮͱΦϯϥΠϯετΞΛซ༻͢Δ͜ͱͰ ߪೖ཰ɾߪೖֹɾܧଓར༻཰ͷ͢΂͕ͯվળ͢Δ

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ԷചɺҕୗൢചɺৗઃళฮͳͲ ଟ༷ͳΦϑϥΠϯൢചνϟωϧ׆༻ ϙοϓΞοϓΛத৺ͱͨ͠ ΦϑϥΠϯઓུ&$ ϦεΫͷখ͞ͳ&$ͷΈग़ళ ֤ࠃͷ&$Խ཰ 18 ग़ॴɿ*/5&3/&553&/%4 ݻఆඅֻ͕͔ΒͣɺΠϕϯτతʹू٬Ͱ͖ΔʮϙοϓΞοϓετΞʯ͕࣍ͷ伴ɻ ৽͍͠੒௕Ϟσϧ Ձ஋͸Կ͔ɿϙοϓΞοϓετΞ͕ খചͷ੒௕Ϟσϧͷ伴 ʹɻ

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19 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ʮళฮͰͷମݧ ച্૿ޮՌʯ͸࢒Δ͕ɺৗઃళίετ ೥ؒܖ໿͸ϦεΫ͕ߴ͘ɺض؋ళʹߜΒΕΔ͔ɻ ϙοϓΞοϓετΞͰ୹ظؒͰग़ళͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͠ɺඞཁͳ৔ॴɾ࣌ظʹߜͬͯ௿ίετʹมಈඅԽɻ ίετѹॖ͠ͳ͕Βɺ࣮ళฮͰͷఏڙՁ஋Λɺ޿͘ॊೈʹఏڙ͢Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ΔΑ͏ʹɻ ৽͍͠੒௕Ϟσϧ Ձ஋͸Կ͔ɿϙοϓΞοϓετΞʹΑΔళฮͷมಈඅԽ 19 ঎ۀళฮͷग़ୀళʹؔ͢Δ࣮ଶௐࠪ βΠϚοΫε૯ݚ IUUQTTPLFOYZNBYDPKQTVSWFZ@PO@SFUBJMFS ϒϥϯυͷχʔζʹدΓఴͬͨΦʔϧΠϯϫϯϙοϓΞοϓεϖʔε ʮ10161/08ʯͷఏڙΛ։࢝ $06/5&3803,4IUUQTXXXDPVOUFSXPSLTKQOFXT 4)01$06/5&3IUUQTTIPQDPVOUFSKQ ࿏໘ళͰ΋঎ۀࢪઃͰ΋਺೥ʙे೥Ҏ্ͷܖ໿͕ओɻ ߴ·Δਓ݅අɾ௞ྉͷதͰৗઃళӡӦ͸ϋΠϦεΫʹɻ ظؒݶఆͰग़ళͰ͖ΔϙοϓΞοϓετΞ͕૿Ճɻ 4)01$06/5&3Ͱ͸ɺ࿏໘ళɾӺφΧɾ঎ۀࢪઃͳͲ ೔ຊશࠃ Ҏ্ͷ༷ʑͳۭ͕ؒ୹ظར༻Մɻ ೔͔Β࣮ళฮΛ։͚ΔϙοϓΞοϓετΞͷ ίετ͸ৗઃళͷҎԼɻ ݻఆඅͰ͸ͳ͘ɺมಈඅʹͰ͖Δ఺΋ಛ௃ɻ ϙοϓΞοϓετΞʹΑΔ౤ࢿֹͷѹॖޮՌ ௞आళฮͷॳճܖ໿ظؒͷ෼෍ʢOʣ

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20 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ظؒݶఆʹͳΔ͜ͱͰɺ݁Ռͱͯ͠ݶఆੑ͕ग़ͯɺಛผͳମݧͩͱײ͡ΒΕΔΑ͏ʹɻ ΑΓΠϕϯτੑΛߴΊΔల։ํࣜΛՃ͑Δ͜ͱͰɺΦϯϥΠϯͰ௫Έ੾Ε͍ͯͳ͍঎ݍ֦େͳͲͷࡍʹ΋ ৽نͷํ͕ʮཱͪدΔཧ༝࡞ΓʯΛ࡞Δ͜ͱ΋Ͱ͖·͢ɻ ৽͍͠੒௕Ϟσϧ Ձ஋͸Կ͔ɿϙοϓΞοϓετΞʹΑΔళฮͷΠϕϯτԽ 20 ΦϯϥΠϯಈը޿ࠂͰೝ஌ͱػೳཧղΛ޿͘ଅ͠ɺ ֤஍ͷϙοϓΞοϓͰମݧɾݕ౼͍ͨͩ͘ܗࣜͰల։ɻ ΦϯϥΠϯܾࡁͰɺߪೖޙ΋ؔ܎ҡ࣋Ͱ͖ΔΑ͏ʹɻ ମݧܕϙοϓΞοϓετΞʮBEQUʯͰ͸ ͦͷ৔Ͱ͔͠ମݧͰ͖ͳ͍ΨδΣοτମݧΛఏڙɻ औࡐ΋ଟ਺ू·Γɺళ಺ͷ೐Θ͍Λݟͯདྷళׂ͕ɻ JOTUBHSBNΛத৺ʹϑΝϯͱܨ͕Γɺ ϙοϓΞοϓͰݶఆ෺ൢͱΠϕϯτͰָ͠ΊΔۭؒʹɻ ݹணঁࢠ͞ΜͷϙοϓΞοϓετΞͷ༷ࢠ ίΞϥϚοτϨε͞ΜͷϙοϓΞοϓετΞͷ༷ࢠ

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21 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. &$Ͱͷ ച্૿Ճ ϙοϓΞοϓ΍ ϦΞϧ΁ͷల։ 4)01$06/5&3͕ղফ ϦΞϧళฮɾ ৗઃళฮग़ళ ҆ՁʹςετϚʔέςΟϯάՄೳ ମݧʹΑΔ֦ࢄɾ৽نϑΝϯ֫ಘ ΦϯϥΠϯͰग़ళ·Ͱ׬݁ ैདྷϒϥϯυ ৽ڵϒϥϯυ ඇΧόʔΤϦΞ΁ͷظؒग़ళ ϝσΟΞ࿐ग़ɾ֦ࢄ૿Ճ λʔήοτʹ߹Θͤͨల։ 13ɾళฮ ͷޮ཰Խ εϙοτͰͷ ϙοϓΞοϓ΍13 4)01$06/5&3͕ղফ ଟళฮల։ ൢച໘ੵͷ֦େ ৽͍͠੒௕Ϟσϧ Ձ஋͸Կ͔ɿैདྷͷϒϥϯυͰ΋࢖͑ΔʮϙοϓΞοϓετΞʯ

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24 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ৽͍͠੒௕Ϟσϧ Ձ஋͸Կ͔ ɿ঎ۀෆಈ࢈ऩӹͷύϥμΠϜγϑτ ʮzͨͩz ෆಈ࢈Λି͢ʯϞσϧ͔Βɺ ʮ৔ɾσʔλɾαʔϏεΛఏڙ͢ΔʯϏδωεϞσϧ΁ͷస׵ʹ൐૸ɻ ● དྷؗऀͷχʔζΛσʔλΛݩʹ௫Έɺ঎ۀࢪઃͷϢʔβʔΤΫεϖϦΤϯεɾू٬ޮ཰Λվળɻ ● ςφϯτ΁ͷޮ཰తͳσʔλఏڙʹΑΔ ʮςφϯταʔϏεͷඪ४ԽɾলྗԽɾߴ౓Խʯͱʮ৽͍͠Φϓγϣϯऩӹͷ૑ग़ʯɻ ● ෛՙ͕ߴ͘ͳ͍ͬͯ͘ςφϯταʔϏεɾϦʔγϯάΛɺσʔλͱιϑτ΢ΣΞΛݩʹޮ཰Խ͢Δɻ

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26 © 2020 COUNTERWORKS Inc. ڠۀύʔτφʔͷืू খച ঎ۀࢪઃͷ੒௕Λࢧ͑Δ %9ύʔτφʔͰ͢ɻ Ұॹʹ খച ෆಈ࢈ ͷະདྷΛ࡞Γ·ͤΜ͔ʁ ঎ۀࢪઃΛ͓࣋ͪͷ ෆಈ࢈σϕϩούʔ ঎ࣾͷօ༷ ɾϙοϓΞοϓετΞʹΑΔ ۠ըͷར׆༻ ઱౓޲্ ɾσʔλ ϦςʔϧαʔϏεʹΑΔ ৽͍͠ऩӹΦϓγϣϯͷ૑ग़ ɾσʔλαʔϏεʹΑΔ ࢪઃӡӦ Ϧʔγϯάͷ࠷దԽ ళฮΛ͓࣋ͪͷ খചࣄۀऀͷΈͳ͞· ɾϙοϓΞοϓετΞͰͷ ళ಺ΠϕϯτʹΑΔ৽نऩӹͷ૑ग़ ɾσʔλ ϦςʔϧαʔϏεʹΑΔ ৽͍͠ऩӹΦϓγϣϯͷ૑ग़ ɾσʔλαʔϏεʹΑΔ ళฮӡӦͷ࠷దԽ 104ɾΦϯϥΠϯνϟωϧ ͱͷ࿈ܞ ੜ࢈ऀͱܨ͕Γͷ͋Δ ࣄۀऀͷΈͳ͞· ɾϙοϓΞοϓετΞʹΑΔ ੡඼ྲྀ௨ɾϚʔέςΟϯάͰͷڠۀ