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Cliometric analysis with a Pareto frontier of urban planning after the Chile tsunami Satoki Masuda, University of Tokyo Eiji Hato, University of Tokyo Rena Koseki, University of Tokyo Takuya Iizuka, Hitachi, Ltd 2021/9/23 IDRiM 2021 Young Scientists Session

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Motivation 2     Tohoku region has experienced tsunamis repeatedly. Meiji Sanriku tsunami Showa Sanriku tsunami Chilean earthquake tsunami Great East Japan Earthquake What if more people had lived in higher ground? What if there had been more evacua6on routes? https://www.gsi.go.jp/johofukyu/kani_ortho_1.html Google Earth 2010 1977 inunda&on area of 2011 tsunami

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sea tsunami inundation area station (3) Population increase on high ground (2) Population increase in low land (1) Historical fact Objectives of this study 3 Research Ques+on: How good was the urban planning a:er the 1960 tsunami compared with the op?mal urban planning? What is the optimal urban planning? How to reproduce evacuation behavior? Network Design Problem (NDP) Behavioral Modelling (BM) Framework of Cliometric analysis Population scenarios (1960 - 2010) NDP BM Counterfactuals =optimal road expansion after 1960 under ・scenario(1) ・scenario(2) ・scenario(3) Fact 1960-2010 Compare Compare

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Model Framework 4 Lower-level: how do evacuees behave? Upper-level: which road to expand? Bi-level optimization Evacuees behave as they maximize the sum of the current utility and the future utility, !!(#" ). Data of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Parameter estimation Decision variable: capacity of each link 1. Maximizing the number of successful evacuees 2. Minimizing cost Scenarios of an urban se=ng (1960 – 2010) Evaluated by Pareto fronBer Network assignment … Pareto solution 1 Pareto solution 2 Pareto solution N %#$ the deterministic utility component random term the future utility time discount rate Dynamic evacua&on model Mul+-objec+ve network design problem: Recursive structure … t = 1 t = 2 t = T … Origin Stopover

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Case Study 5 メッシュ内人口 (2010年) 0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 675 メッシュ内人口 (2010年) 0 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 400 400 - 675 Grids with development and population increase (+703) after the 1960 tsunami Rikuzentakata Total population in grids: 15013 Population in a grid in 2010 The Rikuzentakata bypass in the inundation area ex-Rikuzentakata station Rikuzentakata, Iwate, Tohoku Historical fact 1960-2010 AEer the 1960 tsunami, • UrbanizaJon in the inundaJon area • A bypass that go through the inundaJon area • Development and populaJon increase on high ground

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Optimal road expansion Capacity-enhanced links at the Pareto solutions (average) (1) historical fact (3) further development on high ground Rikuzentakata Ofunato (2) no development on high ground (3) Population increase in high ground (1) Historical fact (2) Population increase in lower land 6 (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on hi Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on h inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on high ground (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on high ground inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52

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Optimal road expansion 7 Capacity-enhanced links at the Pareto solutions (average) (1) historical fact (3) further development on high ground Rikuzentakata Ofunato (2) no development on high ground (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on hi Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on h inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on high ground (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on high ground inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 Links corresponding to the bypass are expanded. (3) Population increase in high ground (1) Historical fact (2) Population increase in lower land

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Optimal road expansion 8 Capacity-enhanced links at the Pareto solu+ons (average) (1) historical fact (3) further development on high ground Rikuzentakata Ofunato (2) no development on high ground (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on hi Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on h inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on high ground (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on high ground inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 Links connecting low and high ground are expanded (3) Population increase in high ground (1) Historical fact (2) Population increase in lower land

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Optimal road expansion 9 Capacity-enhanced links at the Pareto solutions (average) (1) historical fact (3) further development on high ground Rikuzentakata Ofunato (2) no development on high ground (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on hi Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on h inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 (5) no development on high ground (3) further development on high ground (2) no development on high ground (6) further development on high ground inundation areas of the 2011 tsunami average capacity enhancement (20veh/1.5min./lane) 0 - 0.10 0.10 - 0.63 0.63 - 1.25 1.25 - 3.52 Links connec6ng low and high ground are expanded The road construction after the 1960 tsunami was part of optimal solutions, but there should have been more roads connecting lower and high ground. (3) Population increase in high ground (1) Historical fact (2) Population increase in lower land

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800 850 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : num z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (4) historical fact (5) no development in up (6) further devlopment in 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : number of people evacuated to safe places ÷ 20 z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (1) historical fact (2) no development in upland (3) further devlopment in upland ཮લߴాࢢ Pareto frontier Pareto frontier No development on high ground More development on high ground successful evacuees × 20 ආ೉ ं྆௨ա্ݶͷ֦ுྔͷ૯අ༻ Historical fact No development on high More development on hi Historical fact z2 : cost of road capacity enhancement z1 : the number of successful evacuees Pareto frontier 10 Pareto frontier: the set of best solutions that decide which road to expand (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3 Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground ( inundation areas of the 20 average capacity enhancement 0 - 0.10 (1) historical fact (5) no de Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no dev ex. ex. (2) Population increase in lower ground (1) Historical fact (3) Population increase on high ground

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800 850 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : num z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (4) historical fact (5) no development in up (6) further devlopment in 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : number of people evacuated to safe places ÷ 20 z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (1) historical fact (2) no development in upland (3) further devlopment in upland ཮લߴాࢢ Pareto frontier Pareto frontier No development on high ground More development on high ground successful evacuees × 20 ආ೉ ं྆௨ա্ݶͷ֦ுྔͷ૯අ༻ Historical fact No development on high More development on hi Historical fact z2 : cost of road capacity enhancement z1 : the number of successful evacuees Pareto frontier 11 Pareto fron?er: the set of best soluJons that decide which road to expand The inclina6on becomes gentle as popula6on on highG ↗. (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3 Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground ( inundation areas of the 20 average capacity enhancement 0 - 0.10 (1) historical fact (5) no de Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no dev ex. ex. (2) Population increase in lower ground (1) Historical fact (3) Population increase on high ground

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800 850 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : num z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (4) historical fact (5) no development in up (6) further devlopment in 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : number of people evacuated to safe places ÷ 20 z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (1) historical fact (2) no development in upland (3) further devlopment in upland ཮લߴాࢢ Pareto frontier Pareto frontier No development on high ground More development on high ground successful evacuees × 20 ආ೉ ं྆௨ա্ݶͷ֦ுྔͷ૯අ༻ Historical fact No development on high More development on hi Historical fact z2 : cost of road capacity enhancement z1 : the number of successful evacuees Pareto fron?er 12 Pareto frontier: the set of best solutions that decide which road to expand The inclina6on becomes gentle as popula6on on highG ↗. = efficiency of investment ↗ (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3 Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground ( inundation areas of the 20 average capacity enhancement 0 - 0.10 (1) historical fact (5) no de Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no dev ex. ex. (2) Population increase in lower ground (1) Historical fact (3) Population increase on high ground effect of road expansion

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800 850 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : num z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (4) historical fact (5) no development in up (6) further devlopment in 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 0 20 40 60 80 z1 : number of people evacuated to safe places ÷ 20 z2 : amount of capacity enhancement (1) historical fact (2) no development in upland (3) further devlopment in upland ཮લߴాࢢ Pareto frontier Pareto frontier No development on high ground More development on high ground successful evacuees × 20 ආ೉ ं྆௨ա্ݶͷ֦ுྔͷ૯අ༻ Historical fact No development on high More development on hi Historical fact z2 : cost of road capacity enhancement z1 : the number of successful evacuees Pareto fron?er 13 Pareto frontier: the set of best solutions that decide which road to expand (1) historical fact (5) no development on high ground (3 Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no development on high ground ( inundation areas of the 20 average capacity enhancement 0 - 0.10 (1) historical fact (5) no de Rikuzentakata Ofunato (4) historical fact (2) no dev ex. ex. (2) Population increase in lower ground (1) Historical fact (3) Population increase on high ground The development on higher ground enabled effecJve investment, and further development would have had more effect. The inclina6on becomes gentle as popula6on on highG ↗. = efficiency of investment ↗

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Conclusions 1. Cliometric analysis that evaluates the past urban planning We proposed a method to evaluate the past urban planning quan@ta@vely with Network Design Problem and dynamic evacua@on behavioral model. 2. Roads connec6ng low and high ground are important. The road construc@on aGer the 1960 tsunami was part of op@mal solu@ons, but there should have been more roads connec@ng lower ground and high ground. 3. The popula6on growth on high ground enabled effec6ve investment. In Rikuzentakata, the development on higher ground increases the effec@veness of road capacity enhancement on evacua@on, and further development would have had more effect. Points for discussion • What hinders the implementa6on of such disaster preven6on measures, and how can we address that problem? 14

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Thank you for listening!