Island Climate Update 184 Forecast period: January – March 2016 Teleconference Tuesday 12th of January 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Ame) 12/01/16 1 

1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecAon and SST anomalies last month (December 2015) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaAon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaAon (MJO) diagnosAcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 12/01/16 2 Outline 

1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec

Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 12/01/16 4 

12/01/16 5 hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml 

12/01/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM) 

SST anomalies November 2015 SST anomalies December 2015 12/01/16 7 

12/01/16 8 

2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa

SOI and SST NINO INDICES 12/01/16 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10 

The ENSO Precipita

Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 12/01/16 12 

Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 12/01/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml November 2015 December 2015 Last 5 days (January 9) 

12/01/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies 

ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 12/01/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliAes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliAes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. JFM 2016 0% 0% 100% AMJ 2016 0% 29% 71% JAS 2016 37% 48% 15% 

12/01/16 16 Recent Pacific Westerly Wind Burst 

12/01/16 17 

3) MJO diagnos

Madden Julian Oscilla

Madden Julian Oscilla

Madden Julian Oscilla

4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (JFM 2016) 12/01/16 22 

12/01/16 23 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for JFM 2016 

12/01/16 24 METPI rainfall results January – March 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Cook Islands (Northern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Tuamotu Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Papua New Guinea 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Solomon Islands 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate Fiji 50 30 20 BELOW High Samoa 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 60 30 10 BELOW High FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is 

12/01/16 25 METPI rainfall results 

6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16) 12/01/16 26 

12/01/16 27 SST anomalies For December 2015 SST forecasts for JFM 2016