I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 1 The Greatest CI Effort of Modern Times Keith Brooks Owner - B2B Whisperer

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 2 This session is about the business lessons we can learn from an event, which recently IMHO was one of the greatest CI efforts of modern history. On September 17, a large number of pagers exploded. On September 18, a number of walkie-talkies, and other devices, exploded. "It was a use it or lose it moment," one US official told Axios, describing the reasoning Israel gave the US for the timing of the attack, although officials said Washington was not told of the specifics of the attack.

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 3 The CI Lessons Most of us can barely get through a year or maybe two of a long-term CI effort. The basics of what happened were only 2 years in the making, but it took 18 years to see the vision of their CI actions. Lesson: Without a long-range plan that continuously attacks your competition, are you fulfilling your role well enough? This event demonstrates the advanced infiltration and tactical innovation levels in modern conflicts, where the supply chain and civilian electronics can become vectors for large-scale attacks. This was a complex, calculated operation that served both as a tactical strike and a psychological operation against Hezbollah and its support networks in Lebanon. Lesson: Our job is to cause the competition to fear the unknown, so they make poor decisions or are paralyzed from advancing their products and solutions.

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 4 Maslow CI Hierarchy Timing is Everything Management Decisions Budgeting Planning Data and Conclusions Today’s Topics

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 5 Ground Zero Starting (Minimum Needs) Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 6 News Aggregators, Databases, Social Media Monitoring Basic Information Gathering (Physiological Needs) Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 7 News Aggregators, Databases, Social Media Monitoring Operational Intelligence (Safety Needs) SWOT Analysis, Competitor Benchmarking and Analytics Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 8 News Aggregators, Databases, Social Media Monitoring Market Positioning (Social Needs) SWOT Analysis, Competitor Benchmarking and Analytics Customer Surveys, Brand and Sentiment Analysis Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 9 News Aggregators, Databases, Social Media Monitoring Strategic Foresight (Esteem Needs). SWOT Analysis, Competitor Benchmarking and Analytics Customer Surveys, Brand and Sentiment Analysis Scenario Planning, Predictive Modeling. Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 10 News Aggregators, Databases, Social Media Monitoring Innovation and Market Leadership (Self- Actualization) SWOT Analysis, Competitor Benchmarking and Analytics Customer Surveys, Brand and Sentiment Analysis Scenario Planning, Predictive Modeling. Templates for Battlecards, Sales Enablement, Data Depositories, Comms Innovation The CI Hierarchy

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 11 Planning

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 12 Advanced Planning “They describe a years-long plan that originated at Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv.” “The first part of the plan, booby-trapped walkie-talkies, began being inserted into Lebanon by the Mossad nearly a decade ago, in 2015.” “For nine years, the Israelis contented themselves with eavesdropping on Hezbollah …But then came a new opportunity and a glitzy new product: a small pager.” “The idea for the pager operation originated in 2022… Parts of the plan began falling into place more than a year before Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack that put the region on a path to war.” “Thus was born the idea of creating a kind of communications Trojan horse, the officials said. Hezbollah was looking for hack-proof electronic networks for relaying messages, and the Mossad came up with a pair of ruses that would lead the militia group to purchase devices that seemed perfect for the job — equipment that Mossad designed and had assembled in Israel.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/05/israel-mossad-hezbollah-pagers-nasrallah/

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 13 See The Future Plan for the future, Plan for multiple options, Place breadcrumbs To lead your competitors astray.

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 14 What Future Do You Want? •Bizarre Scenarios – We find aliens on Mars or on Earth •We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know, That We Know We Don’t Know •Reach For The Stars •Cornering your competition

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 15 Strategic BUT Also Tactical • Long-term goals are strategic •The tactical side remains because you need the flexibility to move on data as it changes. •This may involve splitting up the CI role or involving more people to not miss opportunities

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 16 Famous CI Efforts of Magnitude

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 17 •Coke(Tab Clear) vs Crystal Pepsi 92 – 94 • Coca-Cola’s strategy of launching a product that would purposely fail, and while failing, it would cause Crystal Pepsi to fail. Famous CI Rivalries https://www.imthyderabad.edu.in/blog-view/the-genius-strategy-of-coca-cola-beating-pepsi-:-crystal- wars#:~:text=Coca%2DCola%20launched%20a%20product,the%20market%20for%20Clear%20Pepsi.

Budgeting

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 19 Budget Money Budget: > 1.1 Million Euros Payment Dates: March 2023 – June 2024 Parties Involved: Mossad/ Shin Bet ROI: $900,000 + $150,000 + Security(Priceless) Payments: Norta Global Ltd -> BAC Consulting-> Gold Apollo-> Apollo Systems Ltd.-> HK Firm https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/27/middleeast/israel-pager-attack-hezbollah-lebanon-invs-intl/index.html (P:$180x5,000) WT: ($150x1,000)

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 20 When Will We See a ROI? •You need how much money? •This is not a stick within your budget type of plan •We need money without a guarantee it will work •We may never see the ROI, but if we do, it should be big enough for the effort •How much is it worth to you to remove your competition?

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 21 Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total Personnel $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $3,300,000 Tools & Tech $250,000 $250,000 $250,000 $750,000 Training $100,000 $50,000 $50,000 $200,000 Travel & Logistics $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $600,000 Marketing Campaigns $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $1,800,000 Legal/ Compliance $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $150,000 Total $2.1M $2.25M $2.45M $6.8M Budget Estimates

Timing is Everything

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 23 When Management Requested the CI Effort Success is a direct result of the country’s decision to devote far more intelligence resources to targeting Hezbollah after its 2006 war with the Iran-backed terrorist group. The detonation was meticulously planned, set to occur during a critical period of escalating tensions. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/us/politics/hezbollah-israel.html

Management Decisions

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 25 Influence the Outcome If Israel was going high-tech, Hezbollah would go low. It was clear, a distressed Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah, said, that Israel was using cellphone networks to pinpoint the locations of his operatives. “You ask me where is the agent,” Mr. Nasrallah told his followers in a publicly televised address in February 2024. “I tell you that the phone in your hands, in your wife’s hands, and in your children’s hands is the agent.” Then he issued a plea. “Bury it,” Mr. Nasrallah said. “Put it in an iron box and lock it.” According to three intelligence officials, Israel had invested millions in developing the technology, and word spread among Hezbollah and its allies that no cellphone communication — even encrypted messaging apps — was safe anymore. Lesson: If your plans don’t get mentioned by their management, you haven’t pushed hard enough, yet https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html#

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 26 Pitching your Executives • Bring the plan up the hierarchy • Broad strokes with minimal details to start • Let them ask questions for more details • Too many details upfront can create too much friction • Expect pushback, but give them time to mull it over • But not too much time, especially if you have a window of opportunity • Keep their caveats in mind, if they have any, and report on those later • Provide a level of detail when requested

Data

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 28 The Real Data • 6,000+ devices purchased • Lebanon, Syria, and Iran reported device explosions • Sept 30, Israel launches ground operation in Lebanon

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 29 “The secrets of their success come down to a couple of factors,” said Mr. Usher, the former C.I.A. analyst who worked with Israeli intelligence. “They have a fairly defined target deck. That makes it easier for them to bring a tremendous amount of focus to what they do.” “And they’re extraordinarily patient,” he added. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/us/politics/hezbollah-israel.html

I n t el l i C o n B ar c el o n a 2 0 2 4 w w w. s c i p . or g 30 Competitive Intelligence Lessons • Monitoring Supply Chains: Beyond direct competitors, third-party suppliers can be an entry point for disruption. • Scenario Analysis: Planning for worst-case scenarios involving core operational tools is essential. • Technology Redundancy: Ensuring alternative systems are in place can mitigate the impact of targeted disruptions. • Patience and Timing: Once everything is in place, waiting for the right moment is paramount to a productive effort. This incident is a real-world example of how CI can identify vulnerabilities and mitigate risks. It emphasizes the critical role of comprehensive intelligence efforts in safeguarding business operations.

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