Warm, dry, healthy homes and peak electricity demand Ben Anderson [email protected] / [email protected] @dataknut Wham-wham or win-win?

@dataknut What’s the problem? 2 Total NZ electricity demand per half hour (June) Source: Electricity Authority GW (sum)

@dataknut Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Demand Response in New Zealand Fig. 3 illustrates electricity generation by time of day on GWh per half-hour trading period. Times of peak electricity generation are characterised by a higher electricity supply and demand at certain times and occur in early morning and evening hours in winter 2017. The maximum power on an average day in winter 2017 was 6.2 GW (equi- valent to 3.1 GWh per half-hour) and 5 GW in summer. Times of electricity peaks change by season. In summer 2017, the evening peak was much flatter and occurred slightly earlier compared to winter of the same year. This change in the electricity supply pat- tern is caused by weather conditions in December that do not necessitate appliances such as electrical heating systems to be activated, coupled with daylight saving and also longer daylight hours for summer, a lower use of lighting technologies in the early even- ing. All figures and calculations in this report consider New Zealand daylight saving. Fig. 3| Daily average half-hour electricity generation profile in summer and winter 2017 Source: Based on (Electricity Authority, 2018c) Increased demand during time intervals of high electricity demand are largely supplied by hydro electricity generation. Hydro electricity generation as depicted in Fig. 4 rep- resents a significant part of New Zealand’s electricity supply and necessitates active Page 17 of 113 Why is ‘peak’ a problem? • ‘Dirty’ energy (?) Carbon problems: • Higher priced energy Cost problems: • PV & Wind Renewables mis-match • Inefficient use of resources; • ‘Local’ (LV network) overload; Infrastructure problems: 3 Filling the trough Peak load Depends on hydro levels in Feb – April Khan et al (2018) 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.309

@dataknut Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Demand Response in New Zealand Fig. 3 illustrates electricity generation by time of day on GWh per half-hour trading period. Times of peak electricity generation are characterised by a higher electricity supply and demand at certain times and occur in early morning and evening hours in winter 2017. The maximum power on an average day in winter 2017 was 6.2 GW (equi- valent to 3.1 GWh per half-hour) and 5 GW in summer. Times of electricity peaks change by season. In summer 2017, the evening peak was much flatter and occurred slightly earlier compared to winter of the same year. This change in the electricity supply pat- tern is caused by weather conditions in December that do not necessitate appliances such as electrical heating systems to be activated, coupled with daylight saving and also longer daylight hours for summer, a lower use of lighting technologies in the early even- ing. All figures and calculations in this report consider New Zealand daylight saving. Fig. 3| Daily average half-hour electricity generation profile in summer and winter 2017 Source: Based on (Electricity Authority, 2018c) Increased demand during time intervals of high electricity demand are largely supplied by hydro electricity generation. Hydro electricity generation as depicted in Fig. 4 rep- resents a significant part of New Zealand’s electricity supply and necessitates active Page 17 of 113 Why is ‘peak’ a problem? • ‘Dirty’ energy (?) Carbon problems: • Higher priced energy Cost problems: • PV & Wind Renewables mis-match • Inefficient use of resources; • ‘Local’ (LV network) overload; Infrastructure problems: 4 Filling the trough Peak load Depends on hydro levels in Feb – April Khan et al (2018) 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.309

@dataknut Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Demand Response in New Zealand Fig. 3 illustrates electricity generation by time of day on GWh per half-hour trading period. Times of peak electricity generation are characterised by a higher electricity supply and demand at certain times and occur in early morning and evening hours in winter 2017. The maximum power on an average day in winter 2017 was 6.2 GW (equi- valent to 3.1 GWh per half-hour) and 5 GW in summer. Times of electricity peaks change by season. In summer 2017, the evening peak was much flatter and occurred slightly earlier compared to winter of the same year. This change in the electricity supply pat- tern is caused by weather conditions in December that do not necessitate appliances such as electrical heating systems to be activated, coupled with daylight saving and also longer daylight hours for summer, a lower use of lighting technologies in the early even- ing. All figures and calculations in this report consider New Zealand daylight saving. Fig. 3| Daily average half-hour electricity generation profile in summer and winter 2017 Source: Based on (Electricity Authority, 2018c) Increased demand during time intervals of high electricity demand are largely supplied by hydro electricity generation. Hydro electricity generation as depicted in Fig. 4 rep- resents a significant part of New Zealand’s electricity supply and necessitates active Page 17 of 113 What makes up peak demand? What might be reduced? Who might respond? And what are the network consequences? What to do? •Levelling the load Storage •Reducing the load Demand Reduction •Shifting the load somewhere else in time (& space) Demand Response 5

@dataknut Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Demand Response in New Zealand Fig. 3 illustrates electricity generation by time of day on GWh per half-hour trading period. Times of peak electricity generation are characterised by a higher electricity supply and demand at certain times and occur in early morning and evening hours in winter 2017. The maximum power on an average day in winter 2017 was 6.2 GW (equi- valent to 3.1 GWh per half-hour) and 5 GW in summer. Times of electricity peaks change by season. In summer 2017, the evening peak was much flatter and occurred slightly earlier compared to winter of the same year. This change in the electricity supply pat- tern is caused by weather conditions in December that do not necessitate appliances such as electrical heating systems to be activated, coupled with daylight saving and also longer daylight hours for summer, a lower use of lighting technologies in the early even- ing. All figures and calculations in this report consider New Zealand daylight saving. Fig. 3| Daily average half-hour electricity generation profile in summer and winter 2017 Source: Based on (Electricity Authority, 2018c) Increased demand during time intervals of high electricity demand are largely supplied by hydro electricity generation. Hydro electricity generation as depicted in Fig. 4 rep- resents a significant part of New Zealand’s electricity supply and necessitates active Page 17 of 113 What makes up peak demand? Light Hot water Heat Some examples… •Levelling the load Storage •Reducing the load Demand Reduction •Shifting the load somewhere else in time (& space) Demand Response 6

@dataknut Data: NZ GREENGrid 7 Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 • Sample of ~ 40 households • Circuits measured: • Hot water • Lighting • Heat pumps • Kitchen • Bedrooms • etc • Data: • Household survey • Mean power (W) per minute (GridSpy)

@dataknut Reduce: Lighting 8 Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 VERY small n…

@dataknut Reduce: Lighting 9 Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 VERY small n…

@dataknut Reduce: Lighting (seasonal) 10 Real world heterogeneity VERY small n… Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 For whom might LEDs reduce demand?

@dataknut Shift: Hot water 11 Complexities Ripple control Gas Timers Energy cultures Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334

@dataknut Shift: Hot water 12 Complexities Ripple control Gas Timers Energy cultures Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 We know this (don’t we?)

@dataknut Shift: Hot water 13 Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 VERY small n…

@dataknut Shift: Hot water 14 Complexities Ripple control Gas Timers Energy cultures Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 What might shift demand? Real world heterogeneity

@dataknut Shift: Heat (pumps) 15 Complexities Thermostats Radiant heaters Woodburners Household practices Norms of 'comfort' Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334

@dataknut Shift: Heat (pumps) 16 Complexities Thermostats Radiant heaters Woodburners Household practices Norms of 'comfort' Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 VERY small n…

@dataknut Shift: Heat (pumps) 17 Complexities Thermostats Radiant heaters Woodburners Household practices Norms of 'comfort' Get the data: https://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-853334 What might shift demand? Real world heterogeneity

@dataknut Why bother? 18 • We can’t shift light • => More efficient lighting Lighting • Randomisation (ripple) • Hot water storage • PV? Hot water • Heat pump into thermal mass (insulated solid floor?) • Use other fuels (wood?) for ‘peak’? Heat Source: Dortans, C (2019) Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Household Appliances to Reduce Daily Peak Electricity Demand in New Zealand: MSc Thesis, University of Otago Could take up to 780 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 700 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 1000 MW out of winter morning peak Could take up to 280 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 320 MW out of winter morning peak Current adoption levels Huntly Power Station

@dataknut Why bother? 19 • We can’t shift light • => More efficient lighting Lighting • Randomisation (ripple) • Hot water storage • PV? Hot water • Heat pump into thermal mass (insulated solid floor?) • Use other fuels (wood?) for ‘peak’? Heat Source: Dortans, C (2019) Estimating the Technical Potential for Residential Household Appliances to Reduce Daily Peak Electricity Demand in New Zealand: MSc Thesis, University of Otago Could take up to 780 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 700 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 1000 MW out of winter morning peak Could take up to 280 MW out of winter evening peak Could take up to 320 MW out of winter morning peak Current adoption levels Huntly Power Station ~ -30% of winter peak load Network cost efficiencies of ~ $164m/year And EVs are coming…

@dataknut What do we need? § Energy Cultures: • Stephenson et al (2015) • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.03.005 § Better data • HEEPS2 might provide it… § Questions? • @dataknut • [email protected] 20 But do we have the data? We have the tools