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3 Messerli, (2012), New England Journal of Medicine : 0.79 P < 0.0001

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4 or GDP GDP or GDP 0.79 P < 0.0001

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7 : Campomanes+14, J. Am. Chem. Soc. : Moneta+12, Oxford B Econ. Stat. : Mills-Finnerty+14, NeuroImage (t) (t) (t) R&D(t) (t+1) (t+1) R&D(t+1) (t+1) (t+2) (t+2) R&D(t+2) (t+2) : Rosenstrom+12, PLOS ONE or ?

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() . 1 2 10 x y x y x y xy a. b. c. ( ) i i i i e x f x , =

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) ( ( 2 ) !"!# !$ ( 3 ) 3 13 ) ) (

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: 12 x3 x1 x2 x3 x1 x2 x3 x1 x2 x3 x2 x1 V x2x3 x1

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( B ( B ) C B 2 : ( B 2 : I 13

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16 ( ) i i i i e x f x , =

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17 • • Z MLN • Z P S I U RJHP ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) i i i i i i i i i i x j ij i e x f f x e x f x e x f x i + = + = + = - å 1 , 1 2 , - 9A 2.3 8 6+. 39 9AB 104 . , 8 + !" = ∑ $"% !% + &" 104 • • (2 ) (Wenjuan et al., IJCAI2018) !"

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18 ! ! ú û ù ê ë é ú û ù ê ë é = ú û ù ê ë é 2 1 21 2 1 1 0 1 e e b x x " # " $ % 2 1 21 2 1 1 e x b x e x + = = A s x ! ! ú û ù ê ë é ú û ù ê ë é = ú û ù ê ë é 2 1 12 2 1 1 0 1 e e b x x " # " $ % A s x 2 2 1 2 12 1 e x e x b x = + = A : (ICA) x1 x2 e1 e2 x1 x2 e1 e2

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2 !"!# !$ ) 3 (3 9 13 3

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R GH 5 aS M A 7 ))( C JL . 9 7 7 : & 021 R I V 7 : ,21 ) ( ) ( ) ( 0 t t t k e x B x + - = å = t t t 20 Moneta+12, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (t) (t) (t) R&D(t) (t+1) (t+1) R&D(t+1) (t+1) (t+2) (t+2) R&D(t+2) (t+2) Growth rate = log( x(t) ) – log ( x(t-1) )

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i i j j ij Q q q iq i e x b f x + + = å å ¹ =1 l WS HGI WS HGIM ) 8 + 21 A R 0 ( ) , , 1 ( Q q f q ! = q f 2 e 1 e 1 f 2 f • • a ) 8 + • L J ) 1 + 4 4; +

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i i j j ij Q q q iq i i e x b f x + + + = å å ¹ =1 l µ 2 e 1 e 1 f e 2 f e 2 e 1 e 1 : 1 f e f 2 : 2 f e f 1 f 2 f ú û ù ê ë é ú û ù ê ë é = ú û ù ê ë é ú û ù ê ë é = ú û ù ê ë é 2 1 22 21 11 22 21 11 2 1 0 0 2 1 f f a a a e e a a a f f f f

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