Island  Climate  Update  175   Forecast  period:   April  –  June  2015   Teleconference  Wednesday  1  of  April  2015   (12:30  PM  NZ  Bme)   31/03/15   1   

1)  Some  words  on  Rainfall  /  ConvecBon  and  SST  anomalies  last  month   (March  2015)   2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system):  situaBon  and  forecast     3)  Madden-­‐Julian  OscillaBon  (MJO)  diagnosBcs  and  forecasts     4)  METPI  Rainfall  Forecast     5)  METPI  SST  Forecast     31/03/15   2   Outline     

1)  Recent  Rainfall  (+Convec

Rainfall  averages  and  anomalies  (TRMM)     31/03/15   4   

31/03/15   5   hSp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml   

1/04/15   6   •  Well  below  =  <  40  %  of  normal   •  Below  =  between  40  and  80  %   •  Normal  =  between  80  and  120  %   •  Above  =  between  120  and  160  %   •  Well  above  =  >  160  %   Past  6  months  rainfall  anomalies  for  ICU  Islands  group  (TRMM)   

SST  anomalies  February  2014   SST  anomalies  March  2014   1/04/15   7   

1/04/15   8   

2)  ENSO  (Pacific  Ocean  –  Atmosphere  system)  situa

SOI  and  SST  NINO  INDICES   31/03/15   Datasource  =  BoM  (hSp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/)   10   

The  ENSO  Precipita

Surface  equatorial  SST  and  Zonal  Wind  anomalies   31/03/15   12   hSp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   31/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   

Ocean  sub-­‐surface  temp  anomalies  (TAO)   31/03/15   14   From  hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evoluBon-­‐status-­‐fcsts-­‐web.pdf     

31/03/15   http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 15   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml   hSp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-­‐10/ wksl_anm.gif   Ocean  heat  content  anomalies  (0  –  300  m)  and  sea  level  anomalies   

ENSO  forecast     ©  NIWA  (Na)onal  Climate  Centre  Na)onal  Guidance)       31/03/15   16   IRI/CPC  Mid-­‐Month  Plume-­‐Based  ENSO  Forecast   ProbabiliBes   Season   La  Niña   Prob.   Neutral   Prob.   El  Niño   Prob.   AMJ  2015   0%   31%   69%   JAS  2015   2%   28%   70%   OND  2015   11%   30%   59%   

3)  MJO  diagnos

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

Madden  Julian  Oscilla

4)  METPI  Rainfall  forecasts   31/03/15   21   

31/03/15   22   

1/04/15   23   METPI  rainfall  results   Kiribati (Western) 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 35 45 ABOVE High Kiribati (Eastern) 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Tokelau 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High FSM 33 33 33 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate Society Islands 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Northern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High New Caledonia 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Niue 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tonga 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Tuamotu Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW High Marquesas 45 35 20 BELOW High Papua New Guinea 45 35 20 BELOW High Vanuatu 45 35 20 BELOW High 

1/04/15   24   METPI  rainfall  results   

6)  METPI  SST  forecasts   31/03/15   25   

1/04/15   26