Win ratioとは何か？

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8JOSBUJPͱ͸Կ͔ɻྟচݚڀʹͲ͏࢖͏͔ɻ ࠤ౻ढ़ଠ࿕ ௕࡚େֶපӃྟচݚڀηϯλʔ TIVOUBSPTBUP!OBHBTBLJVBDKQ 5XJUUFS!4IVOUBSPPP

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ྲྀΕ 2 ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ w ԿͰඞཁʁˠݕग़ྗෆ଍ w Կ͕໰୊ʁ ରࡦ w 8JOSBUJP w ૣ͘ىͬͨ͜ࣄ৅ͷ৘ใ͔͠࢖Θͳ͍ w ֤ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷྟচతͳॏΈ͸ແࢹ w ΞϧΰϦζϜ w ࢦඪͷҙຯ w ϦεΫൺɺΦοζൺɺϋβʔυൺͷҙຯΛ࠶ߟ w ྑ͍఺ͱ՝୊ ᶃ 8JOSBUJP

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3 ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ

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ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτʢ$PNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUʣ 4 ؔ৺ͷ͋Δෳ਺ͷΤϯυϙΠϯτ͔Βߏ੒͞ΕΔΤϯυϙΠϯτ $7EFBUI )'IPTQJUBMJ[BUJPO ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ ֤ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷΠϕϯτൃੜස౓͸௿͍ ݕग़ྗ͕௿͍ ΤϯυϙΠϯτΛ·ͱΊΔ ݕग़ྗ্͕͕Δ αϯϓϧαΠζݮগˠࢼݧίετݮগ ෳ߹   ΤϯυϙΠϯτ ৽ن࣏ྍ͸ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷൃੜස౓Λม͑ͨ ղऍ ԋऀ࡞੒

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ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ໰୊఺ 5 'FSSFJSB(PO[ÂMF[* #VTTF+8 )FFMT"OTEFMM% .POUPSJ7. "LM&" #SZBOU%. FUBM   1SPCMFNTXJUIVTFPGDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTJODBSEJPWBTDVMBSUSJBMTTZTUFNBUJDSFWJFXPGSBOEPNJTFEDPOUSPMMFEUSJBMT#.+"QS ͷ'JHVSF ᶃ %FBUI ᶄ $SJUJDBM 4USPLF ᶅ .BKPS /POGBUBM.* ᶆ .PEFSBUF )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPO ᶇ .JOPS $IBOHFJOCMPPEQSFTTVSF w ॏ঱౓͕ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺ   ޮՌ͕খ͍͞ w ॏ঱౓͕௿͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺ   ޮՌ͕େ͖͍ w ॏ঱౓͕௿͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτΑΓɺΠϕϯτΛൃੜ͠΍͍͢ w ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͸ɺUJNFUP fi STUFWFOUͷ৘ใΛ༻͍Δ ॏ঱౓͕ߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ৽نͷ࣏ྍޮՌΛద੾ʹධՁͰ͖͍ͯͳ͍͔΋͠Εͳ͍ ৽ن࣏ྍ͸ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷൃੜස౓Λม͑ͨ ϛεϦʔσΟϯά

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6 8JOSBUJP

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8JOSBUJP 7 ΞϧΰϦζϜ ᶃ ৽ن࣏ྍ܈ʢҎԼɺ࣏ྍ܈ʣͱରর܈ͷରϖΞΛ࡞Δ ᶄ ࣄલʹΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ༏ઌॱҐΛܾΊΔ ᶅ ༏ઌॱҐͷߴ͍ΤϯυϙΠϯτ͔Βɺ   Πϕϯτ͕ൃੜ͢Δ·Ͱͷ࣌ؒΛ࢖ͬͯɺ࣏ྍ܈ͷʮ8JOʢউͪʣʯʮ-PTFʢෛ͚ʣʯΛܾΊΔ ᶆ ʮ5JFʢҾ͖෼͚ʣʯͷ৔߹ɺԼҐͷΤϯυϙΠϯτͰಉ͡Α͏ʹධՁ͢Δ ᶇ 8JOOFSTͷ૯਺ͱ-PTFSTͷ૯਺ͷൺΛ8JOSBUJPͱ͢Δ 1PDPDL4+ "SJUJ$" $PMMJFS5+ 8BOH%5IFXJOSBUJPBOFXBQQSPBDIUPUIFBOBMZTJTPGDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTJODMJOJDBMUSJBMTCBTFEPODMJOJDBM QSJPSJUJFT&VS)FBSU++BO r w ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτΛߏ੒͢ΔΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ༏ઌॱҐΛߟྀͨ͠ࢦඪ w ޮՌࢦඪͱ৴པ۠ؒ΋ಘΒΕΔ w ݩͷΞΠσΞ͸ɺ'JOLFMTUFJO4DIPFOGFMEݕఆʢϊϯύϥϝτϦοΫݕఆʣ

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ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶃϖΞΛ࡞Δ 8 5IFNBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDI 5IFVONBUDIFEQBJSTBQQSPBDI 3JTLTDPSF ಉ͡ϦεΫΛ࣋ͭਓಉ࢜ΛϖΞʹ͢Δ ࣏ྍ܈ ରর܈ w ϞσϧʹΑΓɺҰਓҰਓͷ3JTLTDPSFΛܭࢉ͢Δඞཁ w ݪஶ࿦จͰ͸નΊΒΕ͍͕ͯͨ w ࣮༻తͰͳ͍ͱɺஶऀΒࣗ਎΋೥ޙͷ࿦จͰݴٴ 3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IF XJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBMHVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVT FYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD r ͢΂ͯͷ૊Έ߹ΘͤΛϖΞʹ͢Δ ࣏ྍ܈ /5 ରর܈ /$ w 3JTLTDPSF͸ෆཁ w ݩͷϦεΫ͕ۃ୺ʹ཭Ε͍ͯΔਓಉ࢜ΛϖΞʹ ͍ͯ͠Δ w ࣮༻త ϖΞͷ਺ /5º/$

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ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶄ༏ઌॱҐΛܾΊΔ 9 3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBM HVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD rͷ5BCMF

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ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶅᶆ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO -PTF 5JFͷ൑ఆ 10 ྫɿ$7EFBUI)PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͰߏ੒͞Εͨෳ߹Ξ΢τΧϜ $7EFBUIͰ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO͕ܾ·Δύλʔϯ ଧͪ੾Γ ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ͸ରরΑΓ΋ૣ͘ )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠Δ͕ɺ ༏ઌॱҐ͕ߴ͍$7EFBUIΛධՁͯ͠ ͍ΔͨΊແࢹ w ͲͪΒ΋$7EFBUIΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͍৔߹ɺ   ੜଘظ͕ؒશ͘ಉ͡৔߹ɺ )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͷධՁ΁ w ؍࡯ظؒΛ୹͍ํʹͦΖ͑ͨͱ͖ʹɺͦͷ࣌఺ʹ$7EFBUIΛ ى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͚Ε͹ɺ )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͷධՁ΁ ࣏ྍ ରর ଧͪ੾Γ )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOͰ࣏ྍ܈ͷ8JO͕ܾ·Δύλʔϯ ଧͪ੾Γ ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ ରর ࣏ྍ܈͸$7EFBUIΛى͍ͯ͜͠Δ͕ɺ   ؍࡯ظؒΛͦΖ͑ͨ৔߹ɺ   Ҿ͖෼͚ʹͳΓɺ Ͱ൑ఆ͢Δύλʔϯ w ͲͪΒ΋)PTQJUBMJ[BJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͍৔߹ɺ   ൃੜظ͕ؒશ͘ಉ͡৔߹ɺ5JFʢҾ͖෼͚ʣ൑ఆ w ؍࡯ظؒΛ୹͍ํʹͦΖ͑ͨͱ͖ʹɺͦͷ࣌఺ʹ )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPOΛى͍ͯ͜͠ͳ͚Ε͹ɺ5JFʢҾ͖෼͚ʣ൑ఆ ࣏ྍ ରর 1PDPDL4+ "SJUJ$" $PMMJFS5+ 8BOH%5IFXJOSBUJPBOFXBQQSPBDIUPUIFBOBMZTJTPGDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTJODMJOJDBMUSJBMTCBTFEPODMJOJDBMQSJPSJUJFT&VS)FBSU+ +BO rͷ'JHVSFΛࢀߟ

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ΞϧΰϦζϜɹᶇ8JOSBUJPͷܭࢉ 11 ࣏ྍ܈ /5 ରর܈ /$ ਓ ਓ 300 × 312 = 94224 ϖΞ 5JFT / 8JOT /8 -PTTFT /- 5JFT / 8JOT /8 -PTTFT /- $7EFBUI )PTQJUBMJ[BUJPO 5PUBMXJOT 5PUBMMPTTFT 27060 + 15270 = 42330 18532 + 7745 = 26277 8JOSBUJP 5PUBMXJOT 5PUBMMPTTFT $*UP 1 3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBMHVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF &VS)FBSU+%FD rͷ'JHVSFΛࢀߟ

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8JOSBUJPͷղऍ 12 8JOSBUJP 5PUBMXJOT 5PUBMMPTTFT = NW NL = NW NT × NC NL NT × NC ࣏ྍ܈͕উͭ֬཰ ࣏ྍ܈͕ෛ͚Δ֬཰ 3JTLSBUJP ࣏ྍ܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى֬͜͢཰ ରর܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى֬͜͢཰ 0EETSBUJP ࣏ྍ܈ͷΦοζ ରর܈ͷΦοζ ࣏ྍ܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى֬͜͢཰ ࣏ྍ܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى͜͞ͳ͍֬཰ ରর܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى֬͜͢཰ ରর܈ʹ͓͍ͯΠϕϯτΛى͜͞ͳ͍֬཰ )B[BSESBUJP ࣏ྍ܈ͷϋβʔυ ରর܈ͷϋβʔυ ࣏ྍ܈ͷॠؒΠϕϯτൃੜ֬཰ ରর܈ͷॠؒΠϕϯτൃੜ֬཰ ˡղऍ͠΍͍͢ ˡղऍͮ͠Β͍ ɹղऍʹ஫ҙඞཁ w Ͳͷࢦඪ΋ղऍʹ͸஫ҙ͕ඞཁ w Ͱ͖Δ͚ͩɺϦεΫͷߟ͑ํʹ͍͖͍࣋ͬͯͨʢཁݚڀ͔ʁʣ ԋऀ࡞੒

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8JOSBUJPͱ)B[BSESBUJP 13 3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBM HVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD rͷ5BCMF

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8JOSBUJPͷྑ͍఺ͱ՝୊ 14 3FEGPST# (SFHTPO+ $SPXMFZ" .D"OESFX5 #FO:FIVEB0 4UPOF(8 FUBM5IFXJOSBUJPBQQSPBDIGPSDPNQPTJUFFOEQPJOUTQSBDUJDBM HVJEBODFCBTFEPOQSFWJPVTFYQFSJFODF&VS)FBSU+%FD rͷ5BLFIPNF fi HVSFΛࢀߟ ྑ͍఺ ՝୊ ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτΛߏ੒͢Δ   ͢΂ͯͷΤϯυϙΠϯτͷ৘ใΛ࢖͑Δ ೝ஌͞Εͯͳ͍ ΤϯυϙΠϯτʹରͯ͠ɺ   ྟচతͳ؍఺͔Β༏ઌॱҐΛ͚ͭΒΕΔ ౷ܭղੳ͕೉͍͠ ܁Γฦ͠ΠϕϯτΛൃੜ͢ΔΤϯυϙΠϯτ΋   ૊ΈࠐΊΔ αϯϓϧαΠζͷઃܭ͕೉͍͠ ΠϕϯτൃੜͰଌΕͳ͍ɺ   มԽྔͷΑ͏ͳΤϯυϙΠϯτ΋૊ΈࠐΊΔ 5JNFUPFWFOUͷ৔߹ɺੜଘظؒΛແࢹͯ͠ɺ   ૣ͘ى͔ͬͨ͜Ͳ͏͔ͷ৘ใͷΈ࢖͍ͬͯΔ ֓೦͕Θ͔Γ΍͍͢ ඇৗʹັྗత ˠ࣌ؒ࣍ୈʁ ੜ෺౷ܭՈͱҰॹʹ ݚڀ͢Ε͹ղܾʂ

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͓͞Β͍ 15 ෳ߹ΤϯυϙΠϯτ w ԿͰඞཁʁˠݕग़ྗෆ଍ w Կ͕໰୊ʁ ରࡦ w 8JOSBUJP w ૣ͘ىͬͨ͜ࣄ৅ͷ৘ใ͔͠࢖Θͳ͍ w ֤ΤϯυϙΠϯτͷྟচతͳॏΈ͸ແࢹ w ΞϧΰϦζϜ w ࢦඪͷҙຯ w ϦεΫൺɺΦοζൺɺϋβʔυൺͷҙຯΛ࠶ߟ w ྑ͍఺ͱ՝୊ ᶃ 8JOSBUJP