1 Dr Ian Philips i.philips@leeds.ac. uk The 'oil vulnerability'of commuter patterns: A case study from Yorkshire and the Humber, UK University of Leeds Dr Robin Lovelace R.Lovelace@leeds. ac.uk

2 2 Overview of the paper Main metrics (focus on Cfp) Impact of Low oil prices What next Structure of the paper

3 3 Lovelace &Philips 2014 Geoforum doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.11.005

4 4 Paper overview Concepts of ‘commuter oil vulnerability’ are considered. •Four quantitative metrics • Case study •Geographically variable & individually variable •Individual circumstances affect vulnerability, •Ultimately, the distribution of oil vulnerability depends on visions of the future.

5 5 Context

6 6 Metrics overview From the results of the spatial microsimulation model the metrics were as follows: •Economic vulnerability: defined as commuter fuel poverty ( Vcfp ), the proportion of people spending more than 10% of their income on work travel. •Energy based metric 1: proportion of energy use expended on work travel ( Ve ) •Energy based metric 2: proportion of individuals spending more than 10% of their ‘energy budget’—including gas, electricity and travel energy use—on work travel in each area ( Vei ). •Hybrid vulnerability index based on distance to employment centre, dominance of cars and the average energy costs of commute ( Vh ).

7 7 Impact of low oil prices on relevance of paper •Price change over time •Keep it in the ground (COP15???) •Potential geopolitical crises •Rockstrom et al planetary boundaries •Unfashionable metrics have a persuasive function Falling fuel prices in the UK Environment and social justice lower on agenda Peak Oil receeded as an issueAusterity 2.0

8 Results

Results

10 Cfp = commuting costs income Continued relevance Income inequality increases Cfp Car fuel “subsidy” privileges some groups

11 11 Further work Potential for impact 11 11 11 11 11 Problem 1 11 11 Where Next? 11 Links to other indicators

12 12 Links to other indicators Potential for impact Further work? What next?

13 13 Linking with other metrics example 1: Capacity to walk and Cycle

14 14 Linking with other metrics example 2: Potential for cycling based on commuter flow data

15 15 •Metrics of vulnerability VIPER – regressive impact? CfP Potential for impact

16 16 Questions and comments 16 Dr Ian Philips i.philips@leeds.ac. uk Dr Robin Lovelace R.Lovelace@leeds. ac.uk

17 17 Oil is cheap now so .. •Cheap oil now means we can have high oil prices later: •Peak oil has receeded but •Keep it in the ground (COP15???) •Potential geopolitical crises •Rockstrom planetary boundaries