Lightning Activity Predictions For Single Buoy Moorings Andrew B. Collier Exegetic Analytics [email protected] http://1.bp.blogspot.com/

2 Oceanic lightning... … is difficult to investigate. Brooks, C. E. P. (1925). The Distribution of Thunderstorms over the Globe. Geophysical Memoirs, 3(24), 147–164. “... not much happening over the oceans...”

3 Trent, E. M., & Gathman, S. G. (1972). Oceanic thunderstorms. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 100(1), 60–69. doi:10.1007/BF00880227. ocean:land area ratio between 3:1 and 1:1 72% of the Earth covered by ocean sparse lightning over ocean

5 Oceanic lightning... … was difficult to investigate.

6 Christian, H. J., Blakeslee, R. J., Boccippio, D. J., Boeck, W. L., Buechler, D. E., Driscoll, K. T., Goodman, S. J., et al. (2003). Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D1). doi:10.1029/2002JD002347.

7 Füllekrug, M., Price, C., Yair, Y., & Williams, E. R. (2002). Intense oceanic lightning. Annales Geophysicae, 20, 133–137. doi:10.5194/angeo- 20-133-2002

8 World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)

9 http://www.lankhorstropes.com/files/uploads/Offshore/scenarios_TLWPwFPSO_SBM_Atlantia.jpg SBM = Single Buoy Mooring

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12 http://samsa.org.za/

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14 WWLLN data partitioned into ● 15 min time bins ● 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 km ● 4 quadrants Model ● Input: lightning counts ● Output: lightning presence

16 A B1 B2 B3 B4 C1 C2 C3 C4 D1 D2 D3 D4 E1 E2 E3 E4 2506 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2507 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2509 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2726 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2729 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2733 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2796 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2880 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2882 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2884 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2886 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2887 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 2890 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2891 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 2892 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 2893 TRUE 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 2 4 0 1 0 1 2894 TRUE 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 5 0 3 1 2 0 3 0 0 2895 TRUE 0 0 3 4 0 2 1 6 1 3 0 1 0 17 0 0 2896 TRUE 2 0 0 2 0 11 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 23 0 0 2897 FALSE 0 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 1 18 0 1 0 6 0 0 2898 FALSE 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 17 15 0 3 0 7 0 1 2899 FALSE 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 16 29 0 0 0 8 0 0 2900 FALSE 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 30 0 0 5 14 0 2 2901 FALSE 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 16 28 0 0 5 11 0 0 2902 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 14 8 0 0 12 41 1 0 2903 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 15 64 0 1 2904 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 24 59 0 1 2905 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 45 32 1 0 2906 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 17 0 0 2907 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 66 10 0 0 2908 FALSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 31 2 0 0

18 Confusion Matrices Neural Network observed predicted FALSE TRUE FALSE 12681 65 TRUE 15 48 Conditional Inference Tree observed predicted FALSE TRUE FALSE 12690 92 TRUE 6 21 Random Forest observed predicted FALSE TRUE FALSE 12696 32 TRUE 0 81 Support Vector Machine observed predicted FALSE TRUE FALSE 12696 22 TRUE 0 91 false positive false negative

19 http://www.davey.com/elements/skin/home_tree.png

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22 Random Forest Results

24 Alexander Stepanovich Popov 1895

25 … susceptible to type I errors.

26 Conclusion ● Lightning warnings → disaster prevention ● Few false positives ● Multiple applications