Introduction to the SPF UK Climate Resilience Programme Suraje Dessai and Kate Lonsdale Programme Champions University of Leeds 

Need and urgency for building resilience • Impacts of extreme weather and climate change permeate through society affecting lives and livelihoods UK Flooding Events 2007 UK Heatwave 2018 

Potential UK impacts summarised in CCRA2 

The Strategic Priorities Fund • Building on Sir Paul Nurse’s vision of a ‘common fund’ • Drive an increase in high-quality, multi- and interdisciplinary research and innovation • Ensure that UKRI’s investment links up effectively with Government departments’ research priorities and opportunities • Ensure the system is able to respond to strategic priorities and opportunities. 

Funding and management • The UK CR programme funded under Wave 1 of SPF • Jointly led by NERC (on behalf of AHRC, ESRC and EPSRC) and Met Office • Workshop held in September 2018 to help draw the community together • Ministerial announcement in October 2018 UKRI 

Scope The UK Climate Resilience Programme will draw together fragmented climate research and expertise to deliver robust, multi- and inter-disciplinary climate risk and adaptation solutions research ensuring the UK is resilient to climate variability and change and powerfully positioned to exploit the opportunities of adaptation and green growth. 

Objectives 1. Climate related risks: The robust characterisation, quantification and communication of climate-related risks. 2. Effective adaptation strategies: Develop risk-informed resilience and optimise the opportunities from a transition to a low carbon future. 3. Climate services: Co-produce and pilot end-to-end climate services. 

UKRI funded projects • A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters • Building UK climate resilience through bridging the qualitative-quantitative data divide • CROP-NET: Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields • Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector • Climate Resilience of Care Settings • Climate Risk Indicators: developing indicators of climate risk using UKCP18 to support risk assessments and enhance resilience • Coastal resilience in the face of sea-level rise: making the most of natural systems • Delivering resilience to climate impacts on UK freshwater quality: towards national-scale cyanobacterial bloom monitoring and forecasting • Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management - Integrated & Interactive Tools (DRAW-IT) • Erosion Hazards in River Catchments: Making Critical Infrastructure More Climate Resilient • FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage • Financial risk and the impact of climate change • Forecasting Risk of Environmental Exacerbation of Dissolved Organic Matter - Building Climate Change Resilience (FREEDOM-BCCR) • Impacts and Risk Assessment to better inform Resilience Planning (IMPRES) • Mobilising Citizens for Adaptation: building local flood resilience through cooperative rainwater harvesting (MOCA) • Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields • Smart Systems Approaches for Climate Resilient Livestock Production • Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of UK peatland systems • Understanding UK Perceptions of Climate Risk and Resilience (RESILRISK) • Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate http://gotw.nerc.ac.uk/list_them.asp?them=UK+Climate+Resilience 

Quantifying and minimising transition risks Overview of Met Office led work packages www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2018, Met Office Extend application of UNSEEN Observational data recovery Event attribution for impacts Drivers of NAO Analysis of CPM simulations Lower forcing scenario PPE GEV on UKCP18 data Review of risk assessment approaches Risk communication approaches Impact relevant metrics in UKCP18 Testing of approaches from cat modelling Initial risk estimates Assembling exposure and vulnerability components Scoping of terrestrial resilience service needs Scoping of marine resilience service needs Demonstrators for urban, coast and water Consideration of national guidance standards 

Next steps • Scoping stage to shape next round of calls and programme activities • Further open calls will be announced in 2019. https://nerc.ukri.org/research/funded/programmes/ukclimate/ Stay in touch: • Website in development • Contact us at: Twitter: @UKCRP_SPF E-mail: [email protected] 

Climate Resilience- The Importance of Research for NI Policy 

Climate Change Act 2008 12 

NI Climate Change Adaptation Cycle UK Climate Change Act 2008 UK 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 UK 2nd Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 NI 2nd Adaptation Programme 2019 UK Climate Change Projections 2018 13 NI 3rd Adaptation Programme 2024 

Purpose Development Limitations 4 Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) 

15 Evidence report: Priorities for the next 5 years UK 2nd Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 (CCRA2) 

16 UK Synthesis Report Northern Ireland Summary Scotland Summary Wales Summary England Summary Natural Environment Infrastructure People & Built Environment Business International Dimensions Cross Cutting Report & National Summaries Technical Chapters CCRA2 Evidence Report Content 

Northern Ireland Summary: Urgency Categories 7 

NI Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019 -2024 (NICCAP2) 18 Priority areas for climate change adaptation actions 1. Natural Capital (Terrestrial/Coastal/Marine/Freshwater ecosystems, soils and biodiversity) 2. Infrastructure Services 3. People and Built Environment 4. Disruption to Businesses & supply chains 5. Food Security/Global Food Production 

19 Opportunity to monitor progress, update delivery plans with planned actions and indicators prior to the completion of the programme Comprehensive mid – programme review NICCAP2 is expected to evolve 19 NICCAP2 : A Live Working Programme 

20 CCRA2 : Summary of actions and further research needed 

21 

22 CCRA3 Evidence Report : Development is underway Committee on Climate Change has been commissioned to develop a 3rd CCRA Evidence Report Purpose is to inform the 3rd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) CCRA3 Evidence Report expected to contain (as a minimum):  Synthesis Report  National Summaries  Technical Chapters under the following categories: 1. Natural environment and natural assets 2. Infrastructure 3. People and the built environment 4. Business and industry 5. International dimensions of risk 

23 CCRA3 Evidence Report : Overview of recent call for evidence  Probability and magnitude of extreme weather events in the current climate, including historically unprecedented events  Projected changes in extreme events in the future, on timescales from the next few years to the end of the 21st Century and beyond, including consideration of a range of possible future greenhouse gas emissions and other climate change drivers  Risk Assessment methodologies  Climate change risks and opportunities within the UK, and related adaptation (both current and potential) under the following categories:  Natural environment and natural assets  Infrastructure  People and the built environment  Business and industry  Risks to the UK due to climate change impacts elsewhere in the world, and current and potential adaptation to address these 

24 Thank you Arlene McGowan DAERA Climate Change Unit Environmental Policy Division Gasworks Business Park Belfast: BT7 2JA Email: arlene.mcgowan@daera-ni .gov.uk Tel 02890569484 

Flavour of projects funded through the SPF UK Climate Resilience Programme Suraje Dessai and Fai Fung University of Leeds and Met Office 

UKRI funded projects • A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters • Building UK climate resilience through bridging the qualitative-quantitative data divide • CROP-NET: Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields • Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector • Climate Resilience of Care Settings • Climate Risk Indicators: developing indicators of climate risk using UKCP18 to support risk assessments and enhance resilience • Coastal resilience in the face of sea-level rise: making the most of natural systems • Delivering resilience to climate impacts on UK freshwater quality: towards national-scale cyanobacterial bloom monitoring and forecasting • Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management - Integrated & Interactive Tools (DRAW-IT) • Erosion Hazards in River Catchments: Making Critical Infrastructure More Climate Resilient • FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage • Financial risk and the impact of climate change • Forecasting Risk of Environmental Exacerbation of Dissolved Organic Matter - Building Climate Change Resilience (FREEDOM-BCCR) • Impacts and Risk Assessment to better inform Resilience Planning (IMPRES) • Mobilising Citizens for Adaptation: building local flood resilience through cooperative rainwater harvesting (MOCA) • Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields • Smart Systems Approaches for Climate Resilient Livestock Production • Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of UK peatland systems • Understanding UK Perceptions of Climate Risk and Resilience (RESILRISK) • Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate http://gotw.nerc.ac.uk/list_them.asp?them=UK+Climate+Resilience 

RESIL-RISK: Understanding UK Perceptions of Climate Risk and Resilience • Will investigate how people currently conceptualise the relationship between climate risks, resilience and adaptation options/policy, to help inform the design of climate change risk communications in practice • Will involve a nationally representative survey (of 3000 people), including some experimental ‘framing’ components to test potential communication strategies • Will improve our theoretical understanding of links between climate risk perceptions, resilience, adaptation options and communication strategies 

Building UK climate resilience through bridging the qualitative-quantitative data divide • Historical records can contest and contextualise claims of uniqueness, unparalleled magnitude or severity often associated with contemporary extreme storms, floods, droughts or coastal flooding; addressing the data gap presented by short records • Build an interdisciplinary network of researchers and end-users from across a range of disciplines (including humanities, sciences, engineering and social sciences) to build a scoping network that will identify an approach to bridge the qualitative-quantitative data gap in the climate and hydrological sciences Universities of Liverpool, Bath and West of England 

Climate Risk Indicators • Stakeholder informed policy-relevant indicators of climate hazard relating to extreme weather (heat/cold), hydrological indicators, and agri- climate indicators • Calculation of selected indicators for current and future climates, using UKCP18 projections for low and high emissions scenarios, and also at defined levels of increase in global temperature • Construction of a small number of spatially- coherent, multi-indicator scenarios for current and future climate risks Universities of Reading and Leeds and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology 

Improving hazard understanding Extend application of UNSEEN Observational data recovery Event attribution for impacts Drivers of NAO Analysis of CPM simulations Lower forcing scenario PPE GEV on UKCP18 data RCP2.6 simulations produced with UKCP18 HadGEM3.05 set-up now produced and available for analysis 

From hazard to risk Review of risk assessment approaches Risk communication approaches Impact relevant metrics in UKCP18 Initial risk estimates Assembling exposure and vulnerability components Quantifying and minimising transition risks Testing of approaches from cat modelling Starting to make indicators more relevant – next step is to combine with exposure into a risk index 

Pilot climate services Initial scoping of terrestrial resilience service needs Scoping of marine resilience service needs Demonstrators for urban, coast, health and water Consideration of national guidance standards Deep scoping for transport, energy, food A need for resilience building, but where should this programme focus? 

Dr Jennifer McKinley Queen’s University Belfast UKRI & Met Office Climate Resilience Event 2nd May 2019 UKRI & Met Office Climate Resilience Programme 

Recording the evidence: Past, present and future climate dynamics Dating past environmental change: 14C dating (Reimer) Dendrochronology (Brown) Tephrochronology (Plunkett) Age-modelling (Blaauw) Reconstructing past environmental change: Vegetation change and land-use using palynology (Plunkett) Peatland proxies (Plunkett, Blaauw, Roe) Volcanic impacts (Plunkett) Past human-environment relationships (Plunkett, Rabett, Basell) Climate Change, Peatlands and Economics (Flynn, Doherty, Ruffell, McKinley) Intact peatlands Net Carbon Sink remove CO2 from atmosphere, are major store of carbon and source of methane(CH4) Degraded peatland is Net Carbon Source Blanket bog hydrology and ecosystem services. Hydrological processes to blanket bog decomposition and the cost to society Conservation and restoration programmes 

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Providing the evidence base: Present and future climate dynamics, periodicity and rhythms Sea-Level change and Coastal Geomorphology: (Orford, Flood) Estuarine-Deltaic depositional systems Sea-level change: biological and chemical proxies of past sea-level variability What drives potential rhythmic variation in extreme surge? Role of pertinent atmospheric and oceanic forcing:  NAO: direct hemisphere air pressure control – decadal-plus  AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - indirect sea-temperature control – warm/cool periods Extreme surge shows both sub-century and multi-decade rhythms Periodic extreme surge relates to both AMO and NAO interaction Future estimates of extreme sea level (RP changes) need to reconsider impact of future AMO/NAO surge forcing as well as SL rise 

Impacts and Resilience: Future climate models and scenarios The impact of microbial diversity (McGrath, Creevey & Leavitt)  Microbial members of ecosystems are intrinsically the most sensitive and thus rapid indicators of environmental resilience and change.  How does microbial community diversity and function change in response to environmental perturbation both occurring now and in future climate change scenarios?  Can microbial models be used to predict change at the ecosystems level?  What is the impact of these changes on the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus.  Development of novel technologies for the mitigation of green house gas emissions from the agri-food sector.  Establish a ‘Sustainability Platform’ to promote the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Agenda – with respect to food, waste, climate, economic development and protection of the environment 

Impacts and Resilience Place based Climate Action Network (PCAN) - Barry  Engagement, impact, and the co-creation and sharing of knowledge.  Creation of Energy Transition and Climate Resilience commission  Business engagement and green finance;  An active outreach strategy will connect place-based activities and inform wider climate action by co-producing, synthesising and communicating decision-relevant analysis. https://www.cccep.ac.uk/place-based-climate-action-network-p-can/ Nuala Flood, Architecture An Integrated Heterogeneous Wireless Systems (IHWS) for extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (Duong) A novel scheme to monitor flood by using LiDAR models updated with drone network (low-cost) based on fog computing and machine learning (ML) to develop a real- time flood monitoring system with improved prediction accuracy and response time. (Ofterdinger, Duong, McKinley) 

Climate Action: Sustainability for land and sea 

Biotic impacts (Reid)  Predicting global changes in species ranges - Poleward or elevational shifts in distribution  Assessing vulnerability of native species  Threat from non-native alien species  Biological community turnover  fluxes from land management 

Thank you for listening Contributing Authors • Gerard Barrett • John Barry • Laura Basell • Maarten Blaauw • Dave Brown • Chris Creevey • Rory Doherty • Trung Duong • Nuala Flood • Rory Flood • Ray Flynn • Gary Hardiman • Evelyn Keaveney • Peter Leavitt • John McGrath • Jennifer McKinley • Eric Morgan • Donal Mullan • Kieran O’Driscoll • Ulrich Ofterdinger • Julian Orford • Gill Plunkett • Ryan Rabett • Neil Reid • Paula Reimer • Helen Roe • Alastair Ruffell • , 

AFBI Hillsborough Research Farm Waste water management using willow plantations and applied methods to prevent runoff and nutrient losses to waterbodies. Agricultural and Food Economic Branch –Micro Modelling Section Farm level analyses of the motivations and behaviours of Northern Ireland farmers around the adoption of innovative technologies to increase resilience to climate change 

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 tonnes/hectare Wheat Spring barley Winter barley Oats (winter and spring) Yields of cereals on farm in N Ireland to 2014 Historic database of variety performance and phenotyping reflecting changes in the local and global climate • The use of the best genomics as the climate of Northern Ireland changes ensures that crops and grassland are optimally adapted over time. • Information is available on multiple varieties so that the agri-food industry are able to judge the potential value of any variety under growing conditions in N Ireland 

Modifying plant gene expression to enhance crop resilience to abiotic and biotic stress no drought drought drought + seaweed extract Pretreatment with biostimulant increases plant tolerance to drought 

CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH SCHOOL OF GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ULSTER UNIVERSITY https://twitter.com/UlsterUniGES 

Our research on the geological record helps understand the processes of large-scale and long-term climate change with a strong focus on ice sheets • NERC - Britice Chrono - improving ice sheet forecasting in a warming world, predict sea level rise • EU Marie Curie ITN - Glaciated North Atlantic Margins improving understanding of importance of ice sheet interactions on continental margins • NERC - Glacial outburst floods and climate forcing in, Nunivik, Arctic Canada - how ice sheets force climate chance ICE SHEETS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Dr Paul Dunlop and Dr Sara Benetti 

 Distributional shifts in fish species of economic and conservation importance, NW European margin More frequent coastal storms & higher intensities – Examining impact of storms on north coast sandy beaches: long-term monitoring (15 years) – recovery and adjustment MARINE AND COASTAL IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE  Identifying data gaps in NI coastal data to understanding future processes (National Trust report 2018)  Interreg project MarPAMM (2018-2022) – Murlough SAC/Dundrum Bay: • Assessing existing (and future) coastal processes • Examining scenarios and modelling of future shoreline behaviour in the context of projected climate and sea level changes • Indicate future extents of coastal flooding and erosion potential. Dr Chris McGonnigle, Prof. Andrew Cooper, Prof. Derek Jackson 

GIS - ENERGY EFFICIENCY HOMES  Geographic Information Systems (GIS) fuel poverty mapping project in collaboration with local authorities in NI – used to locate homes most at risk and target them for retrofit schemes to improve thermal quality  Fuel poverty is a big regional issue - estimated to affect over 40% of homes in NI - Mainly due to inefficient buildings  Cold homes can lead to excess winter deaths, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and impacts on mental health.  Retrofitting homes, improved building regulations and low carbon energy sources produce warmer, healthier and more economical homes that require less energy.  Benefits are - average home saves approx. £500 and over 2 tonnes of CO2 pa – important for meeting CO2 reduction Dr Paul McKenzie, Dr Sally Cook 

How climate change affects ecological responses to other stressors / environmental changes 1. Chemical pollution (pharmaceuticals), 2. Biodiversity loss 3. Sediment and nutrient inputs Hunter et al. (2016) Dr Billy Hunter 

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AT THE MICROBIOLOGICAL SCALE • Interdisciplinary research collaboration Geography and ES and Biomedical Sciences - Dr Joerg Arnscheidt - Prof James Dooley Dr Nigel Ternan, Dr Patrick Naughton, Prof Ibrahim Banat • Climate change is impacting on freshwater cycles which is changing the distribution of disease causing organisms and facilitating producing of new antibiotic strains: • GCRF Safe water – delivering low-cost water treatment to developing countries, identifying the main disease causing organisms in the water, cost effect methods of water treatment. • Antibiotic resistance - Demonstration of transfer of antibiotic resistance genes between organisms in the natural environment • Identification of bacterial reservoirs in human and animal waste • Distribution of disease causing microorganisms (bacteria, fungi and protozoa • Estimation of novel patterns of distribution of pathogens in the environment monitored