Banish the ballpark: How not to suck at project estimation

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H O W N O T T O S U C K A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth

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S O F I R S T LY …

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YOU ARE NEVER NOT GOING TO SUCK AT ESTIMATION

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H O W N O T T O S U C K A S M U C H A T E S T I M A T I O N S U Z E H A W O R T H @suzehaworth

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YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

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ESTIMATING A PROJECT IS LIKE FORECASTING THE WEATHER

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B A N I S H T H E B A L L PA R K

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M Y 1 5 T O P T I P S F O R B E T T E R E S T I M A T I O N

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P E O P L E

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PEOPLE ARE…

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PEOPLE ARE… FUNDAMENTALLY PEOPLE

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DALE SHERMON, BEHAVIOURAL ESTIMATING, 2016 We expect these individuals to act logically, to remain independent and objective, to be appropriately qualified and experienced, to work confidently and rationally, all whilst putting the needs of their organisation before their own needs.

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WE’RE EXPECTING PERFECTION

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1 . T H I N K A B O U T P E R S O N A L T I E S

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P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion

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P E R S O N A L I T Y T Y P E S Extroversion or Introversion Judging or Perceiving

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2 . W O R K T O A P E R S O N ’ S R H Y T H M

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DALLAS CALEY http://bit.ly/2jTnWr3 It doesn’t matter that it only took you 1 minute to answer their question. At that time you were 10 minutes into solving the problem in your head and now you’ve forgotten where you were and have to start all over again.

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3 . P AY A T T E N T I O N T O G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

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OR THINGS COULD GET AS AWKWARD AS THIS…

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Relationship to group Group size Group strength & social identity G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

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Group strength & social identity Group size Relationship to group G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

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Group strength & social identity Relationship to group Group size G R O U P D Y N A M I C S

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4 . T H I N K A B O U T T H E E F F E C T O F T H E P A S T

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D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T THE PEAK END RULE

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D U R A T I O N N E G L E C T 0 17.5 35 52.5 70 April May June July Untitled 1 Untitled 2 Untitled 3 Untitled 4 T H E P E A K T H E E N D

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5 . O V E R C O M E N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M

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O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware

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O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’

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O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity

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O V E R C O M I N G N A T U R A L O P T I M I S M Be aware Use ‘designated drivers’ Group diversity Factor in risk and controls

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T O O L S & T A C T I C S

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A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G Know little? Compare to previous, similar projects

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A N A L O G O U S E S T I M A T I N G Problem This isn't very accurate

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6 . R E F U S E T O E S T I M A T E U N K N O W N S

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MAKE UNKNOWNS MORE KNOWN

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DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS

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DON’T BE SCARED TO ASK QUESTIONS… AND MORE QUESTIONS

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7. W O R K W I T H A S S U M P T I O N S

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THREE POINT ESTIMATING

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G PERT

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P)

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M)

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G 1. Pessimistic cost (P) 2. Most likely cost (M) 3. Optimistic cost (O)

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T H R E E P O I N T E S T I M A T I N G Estimate = P + O + (4 x M)/6

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8 . T H I N K A B O U T H O W T O P R E S E N T R E Q U I R E M E N T S

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59%

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59% 38%

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9 . U S E A B A S E L I N E

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STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES

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1 0 . E S T I M A T E I N R E L A T I V E T E R M S

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R E L A T I V E S C A L E S X feature will take me X hours to build

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S T O R Y P O I N T S Fibonacci scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…

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W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around diﬀiculty of work

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W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? Decisions are made around diﬀiculty of work More accurate over a larger sample

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W H Y R E L A T I V E E S T I M A T I N G ? M A N C H E S T E R M A N C H E S T E R L O N D O N L E E D S

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STOP YOUR TEAM THINKING ABOUT THEMSELVES

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B O T T O M U P E S T I M A T I N G Want the most accurate estimate? Break the work down into the smallest components

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E S T I M A T I N G U P F R O N T

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E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very diﬀicult Extreme but known Extreme and unknown

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E S T I M A T I N G B Y S C A L E Piece of cake Moderate Average Hard Very diﬀicult Extreme but known

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1 1 . S E E A N E S T I M A T E A S A W H O L E

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1 2 . R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

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Talk about it R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

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Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

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Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the client how to handle scope creep R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y

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Talk about it Prioritise ‘must-haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’ Agree with the client how to handle scope creep Provide a conﬁdence level R E C O G N I S E U N C E R T A I N T Y