Process of thinking in the hypothesis formulation ○Daiki Nakamura* Takuya Matsuura* *Graduate School of Education, Hiroshima University 2016-10-3 全23枚＋補 

Formulate a hypothesis Outline of research Purpose of this Study The purpose of this study is to reveal the process of thinking in formulating an explanatory hypothesis. 2 Create an experimental method ? Formulate an explanatory hypothesis Recognize a problem What process of thinking is undergone in formulating an explanatory hypothesis? 

Presentation process 3 I. Definition of hypothesis formulation III. Framework of survey II. Background of research IV. Results and considerations 

What is a hypothesis? 4 ◆Wenham (1993) Tentative causal explanation regarding an observed effect. ◆Quinn & George (1975) Testable explanation of an empirical relationship among variables in a given problem situation. Definition of Hypothesis in previous research 

What is hypothesis formulation? 5 ◆Fisher et al. (1983) Hypothesis generation is the process of creating possible, alternative explanations for a given set of information. Definition of Hypothesis formulation in previous research Definition of Hypothesis formulation in this study Creation of the best framework to explain phenomena Based on these studies… 

Presentation process 6 I. Definition of hypothesis formulation III. Framework of survey II. Background of research IV. Results and considerations 

Background of research ｜Framework of PISA2015 7 Scientific Literacy ② Evaluate and design scientific inquiry ③ Interpret data and evidence scientifically ① Explain phenomena scientifically → It includes ability to “Offer explanatory hypotheses” → It can be said that the development of ability to formulate a hypothesis is one of the important objectives. (OECD, 2016) 

Background of research ｜Importance of hypothesis formulation 8 1 For subsequent phases (planning of experiments, consideration of results, etc.) 2 Development of ability to think and reason 3 Acquisition of scientific thinking 4 Effects on conceptual change Why is importance placed on hypothesis formulation? 5 Development of an attitude to reconsider oneself and one’s independence 

Background of research ｜Importance of hypothesis formulation Curriculum guidelines for Elementary school ⚫ Objective of science ”Conduct observation and experiment with a prospect” Curriculum guidelines for Junior high school ⚫ Objective of science ”Conduct observation and experiment with a sense of purpose” 9 In conducting an observation and experiment, it is important to have a prediction and hypothesis based on a question found by the learner himself/herself from a natural event. from the curriculum guidelines for 2008 

Background of research ｜Actual state in previous research There are many students who have difficulty in predicting even though they are aware of the importance of prediction. Only 28% of the teachers consider that “ability to formulate a hypothesis about a question” has been established. 10 Both learners and teachers find difficulty in formulating a hypothesis in science class. (Tsunakawa, 2006) (Imada/Kobayashi, 2004) Awareness of junior high school students about prediction and hypothesis Questionnaire survey for junior high school teachers 

Formulate a hypothesis Purpose of research Purpose of this Study The purpose of this study is to reveal the process of thinking in formulating an explanatory hypothesis. 11 ? Formulate an explanatory hypothesis Recognize a problem ◼ Revealing process of thinking may lead to problem resolution in formulating a hypothesis. 

Presentation process 12 I. Definition of hypothesis formulation III. Framework of survey II. Background of research IV. Results and considerations 

Framework of survey｜Outline 13 Subject 16 university and graduate students in Hiroshima Period February 2016–April 2016 Survey method Interview survey using questions to request formulation of a hypothesis 

Framework of survey｜Interview method 14 Details of the process (a concept that was considered but was not directly used, etc.) may not be figured out only with a question about how the hypothesis is formulated. think-aloud (Ericsson & Simon, 1984) ＋ semi-structured interview (Marcia, 1966) We use… 

Framework of survey ｜Interview method think-aloud ⚫ A method to request to say anything that comes into one’s headbefore the achievement of the task semi-structured interview ⚫ An interview method in which questions are prepared in advance but are flexibly changed or added according to the situation 15 Next… Why… A is more… First… Make a person realize unconscious operation of his/her thoughts 

Framework of survey｜Example of survey questions 16 ⚫ An example of survey questions Put into the water directly Put into the water after powdering Pumice stone Float Sink Disposable chopsticks Float Sink Why do a pumice stone and disposable chopsticks have the same properties that they float when they are a solid material but sink when they are made into powder? Formulate a hypothesis. 

Framework of survey｜Method 17 Provide a question for hypothesis formulation Request to formulate a hypothesis by using think-aloud method Process of thinking Interview process Conduct semi-structured interview Coding Analysis of process of thinking Sort out composition elements of process of thinking n = 16 Study on need for cognition Total of 6 questions 

Presentation process 18 I. Definition of hypothesis formulation III. Framework of survey II. Background of research IV. Results and considerations 

Results and considerations ｜Process of thinking in hypothesis formulation 19 a. Understand the circumstances of problem (UC) b. Consider goal (CG) c. Identify variables (IV) d. Realize causal relationship (CR) e. Think critically about hypothesis (TC) f. Express the idea as own hypothesis (EH) Composition elements of process of thinking → Protocol data classified in six categories 

II. Survey on the condition of process of thinking ｜Process of thinking in hypothesis formulation 20 Row → Column (total frequency) UC CG IV CR TC EH UC - 40 49 8 0 0 CG 2 - 42 6 0 2 IV 1 9 - 114 2 7 CR 2 2 34 - 14 84 TC 0 1 4 6 - 13 EH 1 0 3 2 10 - ⚫ Adjacency matrix of a thinking process 

Results and considerations ｜Common process of thinking 21 There are common processes of thinking composed of 5 processes. ⚫ Main process of thinking (total frequency > 16) UC IV CR CG EH TC 40 49 84 34 114 42 

Results and considerations ｜Common process of thinking 22 (1) Understand the circumstances of problem (2) Undergoing or not undergoing the process to consider the goal and direction (3) Move to identification of variables (4) Repeatedly realize causal relationship (5) Express the idea as their hypothesis ⚫ Main process of thinking in hypothesis formulation 

Summary 23 ⚫There is a common process of thinking in formulating a hypothesis. ⚫An effective intervention may be achieved if teachers conduct their classes with an awareness of the process of thinking. 

研究の背景｜Historical reasons Old Scientific Outlook Hypothesis formulation is… • Free creation • Insight • Not to need logical analysis New Scientific Outlook Hypothesis formulation is… • Logical/rational process • include various psychological factors 24 ⚫ Some researcher in the area of science education and philosophy of science are not interested in the process of generating a new hypothesis.（Park, 2006） 1960s~ ~1960s