Policy Officer, ECDPM Global Green Agenda and its Implications for African Economies Dr. Koen Dekeyser

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Agenda • Key takeaways • What is the global green agenda? • Impact depends on how you are connected • What are possible outcomes? • Ways forward • Key takeaways

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Key takeaways 1. The most important external green agenda for African food systems seems the EU’s Green Deal 2. Impacts depend on how the food systems are connected 3. There is a mix of both opportunities and challenges for African food systems in the green transition 4. Identify those opportunities and challenges with your development plans, and seek coalitions

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR What is the global green agenda? • Set of initiatives, policies and agreements to address climate change and other sustainability issues • Paris Agreement, several SDGs, CBD… But… these are not the most important ones! • These initiatives are more impactful: European Green Deal, USA’s Inflation Reduction Act, China’s green transition support, Africa’s green growth plans. • The EU has been very busy: Deforestation Regulation, Farm to Fork Strategy, Cross Border Adjustment Mechanism • Why does the EU do this? Competition (first mover), security, sustainability. To avoid leakage – creating a level playing field

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR What is the global green agenda? • How does the EU do it? • Stricter regulatory framework • Higher standards • Levies • Guiding public investments • … …What can this mean for African food systems?

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Impact depends on how you are connected • How are we connected? • Trade! • Science! • Investments! • Pollution! • Development cooperation! • Direct impact will depend on • Country • Value chain • Farming and marketing structure • …

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR What are possible outcomes? • Higher standards -> the more wealthier farmers will gain, others will seek different markets (continental, Asia) • Higher food prices (less production, more costs) -> producers can gain, consumers will suffer • Externalisation of pollution (the EU as a green island) • Limiting of development space (eg, limiting nitrogen fertilizer investments, expand agricultural land) • The issue is that the EU and African food systems are at different development points, with different priorities, needs and wants. • For example, SSA food security will depend more on food trade. While it might not come from the EU, EU policy will impact global food prices and thus SSA’s consumers. => mix of opportunities and challenges.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Ways forward • Identify the opportunities and challenges that the green transition brings to your particular context • Identify the alignment and tensions between your development plans and the plans of others • Bring potential impacts of EU et al. policies in your food system to their tables, so that the global dimension is taken more seriously in their policy-making • Increase and deepen dialogue with the partners you need to make your vision come true, starting from the complexity of food systems and how connected they are with each other.

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Key takeaways 1. The most important green agenda for African food systems seems the EU’s Green Deal 2. Impacts depend on how the food systems are connected 3. There is a mix of both opportunities and challenges for African food systems in the green transition 4. Identify those opportunities and challenges with your development plans, and seek coalitions

THANK YOU [email protected]