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1 ౷ܭత༗ҙࠩ Q஋ Λ८Δ࠷ۙͷ࿦૪ɿ .PWJOHUPB8PSME#FZPOElQ  z தଜ஌ൟ ܚጯٛक़େֶେֶӃ UPNPTIJHFOBLBNVSB!HNBJMDPN 6QEBUFEPO.BZUI ܚጯٛक़େֶࡾాΩϟϯύε

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໨࣍ ‣ ΠϯτϩμΫγϣϯ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰѻ͏಺༰ͱɼൃදͷαϚϦʔ ‣ Q஋ͷ᠘ɻ ‣ Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ ‣ Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δʢ͕͜͜ϙΠϯτʂʣ ‣ Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷ1SJODJQMF ‣ Q஋ͷ໰୊Λड͚ͯɼԿΛ͢΂͖͔ʢ.PWJOHUPBXPSMECFZPOElQzʣ ‣ ʮ౷ܭత༗ҙʯ͔Βͷ୤٫ ‣ "50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇɽ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳΨΠυϥΠϯͱͯ͠ ‣ ࢲ͕ͨͪɺʮQͷੈքʯ͔Β୤٫͢ΔͨΊʹ !2

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໨࣍ ‣ ΠϯτϩμΫγϣϯ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰѻ͏಺༰ͱɼൃදͷαϚϦʔ ‣ Q஋ͷ᠘ɻ ‣ Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ ‣ Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δʢ͕͜͜ϙΠϯτʂʣ ‣ Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷ1SJODJQMF ‣ Q஋ͷ໰୊Λड͚ͯɼԿΛ͢΂͖͔ʢ.PWJOHUPBXPSMECFZPOElQzʣ ‣ ʮ౷ܭత༗ҙʯ͔Βͷ୤٫ ‣ "50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇɽ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳΨΠυϥΠϯͱͯ͠ ‣ ࢲ͕ͨͪɺʮQͷੈքʯ͔Β୤٫͢ΔͨΊʹ !3

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͜ͷϓϨθϯςʔγϣϯͰѻ͏಺༰ ‣ ͜ͷϓϨθϯςʔγϣϯͰ͸ɼҎԼͷ࿦จࢽͷ೥ͷ ಛूʹ͋Δɹ࣍ͷ࿦จΛѻ͍·͢ ‣ ࿦จࢽɿ5IF"NFSJDBO4UBUJTUJDJBO ‣ 7PMVNF ‣ ಛूɿ4UBUJTUJDBM*OGFSFODFJOUIFTU$FOUVSZ" 8PSME#FZPOEQ ‣ ࿦จɿ8BTTFSTUFJO3 4DIJSN" BOE-B[BS/ .PWJOHUPB8PSME#FZPOElQ  z ‣ ࿦จͷ಺༰͸ΠϯλʔωοτͰΞΫηε͢Ε͹ӾཡՄೳͳ ͷͰɼৄࡉͳ಺༰ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼࣗ͝਎Ͱ͓͔֬Ίͩ͘͞ ͍ɽ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰ͸ɼۙ೥ߦΘΕ͍ͯΔʮQ஋ʹ͍ͭͯͷٞ࿦ʯΛ ෼ͰίϯύΫτʹઆ໌͢Δ͜ͱΛ໨ඪͱ͠·͢ɽ !4

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͜ͷϓϨθϯςʔγϣϯͰѻ͏಺༰ ‣ ·ͨɺຊൃදͷ಺༰͸೥݄ʹ/BUVSFͰൃද͞Ε্ͨهͷهࣄͷ಺༰Λ ؚΈ·͢ɻ ‣ ͜ͷهࣄ΋ɺֶज़తͳݚڀʹ͓͍ͯ1஋ͷෆద੾ͳ࢖༻ʢओʹɺ1஋ΛԾઆͷ ཱূͷࠜڌͱ͢Δ͜ͱʣʹରͯ͠ͷܯ৊Λ໐Β͢΋ͷͰ͢ɻ !5

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ˎ஫ ‣ εϥΠυͰ͸ɺQ஋ʹ͍ͭͯͷਖ਼͍͠ཧղͷͨΊʹɺվΊͯQ஋ͱ͸ͳʹ͔ʹ ͍ͭͯهࡌͨ͠εϥΠυ͕͋Γ·͕͢ɺ౰೔۩ମతʹઆ໌͢Δ༧ఆ͸͋Γ· ͤΜɻ ‣ ࠓճ঺հ͢Δ࿦จͰͷQ஋ޡ༻໰୊ͷ૝ఆ͸ֶज़తͳݚڀͰ͕͢ɺࠓճͷΠϕ ϯτ΁͓ӽ͠ͷօ༷ͷதʹ͸ɺϏδωεͰ࢖༻͢Δํʑ΋͍Βͬ͠ΌΔͱࢥ ͍·͢ɻΑͬͯɺ࿦จͷ಺༰Λͦͷ··࿩͢ͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɺඞཁͳՕॴͷΈந ग़ͯ͠ɺൃදऀͷҙݟΛՃ͑ͯهड़͍ͯ͠·͢ɻ ‣ Ҏ্ͷ఺ʹɺྃ͝ঝ௖·͢Α͏͓ئ͍͍ͨ͠·͢ɻ !6

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ൃදͷαϚϦʔ* ‣ ೥ʹ৺ཧֶܥͷ࿦จࢽ#BTJDBOE"QQMJFE4PDJBM1TZDIPMPHZͰɼQ஋ ͷ࢖༻͕ېࢭ͞Εͨɽ ‣ ͦͷ͋ͱɼ/BUVSFɼ4DJFODF/FXT 4UBUJTUJDJBOͳͲͰɼQ஋ʹجͮ͘Պֶత ͳ࿦จ͸ɼ࠶ݱੑͷอূͳͲͷ఺͔Βܯ৊͕໐Β͞Ε·ͨ͠ɽ ‣ ೥ʹ͸ɼ"4"ʢΞϝϦΧ౷ܭֶձʣ͕Q஋ʹؔ͢Δ੠໌ΛൃදɽQ஋ͷ ࢖༻ʹؔ͢ΔͭͷݪଇΛఏࣔɽ ‣ ೥݄ͷ"NFSJDBO4UBUJTUJBOͰ͸ʮQ͔Β୤٫͠ɼσʔλղੳ ͸࣍ͷεςʔδ΁ʯͱ͍͏ಛू͕૊·ΕΔɽ ‣ Q஋Λ༻͍ͨೋݩ࿦తͳൃ૝͔Β୤٫͠Α͏ʂ ‣ ʮ౷ܭతʹ༗ҙʯͱ͍͏ݴ༿ΛࣺͯΑ͏ʂ ‣ Q஋Λཧ༝ʹͨ͠ʮ݁࿦ʯΛ΍ΊΑ͏ʂ ‣ Q஋͕খ͘͞Ͱ΋ؔ࿈͕ͳ͍৔߹΋͋Ε͹ɼQ஋͕େ͖ͯ͘΋ؔ࿈͕͋Δ ৔߹΋͋Δɽ ‣ Q஋͸ɼֶज़తʹҙຯ͕͋Δ͜ͱͱৗʹಉٛͰ͸ͳ͍ !7 ͜ ͜ ਺ ೥ ͷ ྲྀ Ε ࿦ จ ͷ ֓ ུ

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ൃදͷαϚϦʔ** ‣ ʮ౷ܭతʹ༗ҙʯͱ͍͏ݴ༿͕Ռ͖ͨͯͨ͠໾ׂʹมΘΔ΋ͷ͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍ ͕ɼࢲͨͪ͸࣍ͷͭΛҙࣝͯ͠ߦಈ͍ͯ͘͠ඞཁ͕͋Δɽ ‣ "DDFQU6ODFSUBJOUZʢσʔλղੳͷෆ࣮֬ੑΛड͚ೖΕΔ͜ͱʣ ‣ #F5IPVHIUGVMʢσʔλͷղੳʹରͯ͠৻ॏͰɼࢥྀਂ͋͘Δ͜ͱʣ ‣ #F0QFOʢσʔλͷղੳͷϓϩηε΍૝ఆͳͲΛެ։͢Δ͜ͱʣ ‣ #F.PEFTUʢσʔλͷղੳͷ݁Ռʹ͍ͭͯݠڏͰ͋Δ͜ͱʣ ‣ σʔλͷղੳΛධՁ͢ΔࡍͷϙΠϯτ΋ม͍͑ͯ͘ඞཁ͕͋Δɽ ‣ ಘΒΕͨσʔλղੳͷ݁Ռ͸ɼ࠶ݱՄೳͳ΋ͷ͔ʢݚڀ໨తʹରͯ͠ɼσ βΠϯ͕ద੾ʹͳ͞Ε͍ͯΔ͔ɼ·ͨख๏ͷબ୒ͷϩδοΫ͸ద੾͔ʣ ‣ σʔλղੳͷՁ஋͸ʮ݁Ռʯʹ͋ΔͷͰ͸ͳ͍ɽղੳΛߦͬͨʮલఏʯ΍ɼ ͦͷաఔͰஔ͔ΕͨʮԾઆʯ͸े෼ʹٞ࿦͞Εͨ΋ͷ͔ɽ ‣ ྫ͑͹ɼϞσϧબ୒Ͱ໡໨తʹ4UFQXJTF3FHSFTTJPOΛ͍ͯͨ͠Βɼ ͦΕ͸Ϟσϧʹରͯ͠ͷ഑ྀ͕໌Β͔ʹ଍Γͳ͍ͱࢥͬͯྑ͍ɽ !8 ࿦ จ ͷ ֓ ུ

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ൃදͷαϚϦʔ*** ‣ ͜ͷಛू߸ʹدߘ͍ͯ͠Δͷ͸ɼ΄ͱΜͲ͕ݚڀऀͳͷͰɼ಺༰ͷεϙοτ ͸ಛʹݚڀ΁ͱ޲͚ΒΕ͍ͯΔɽ ‣ ࣮ࡍɼ࣏ݧͳͲʹ͓͍ͯ͸Q஋ͷ༗༻ੑʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼ༄઒ ͳͲͰड़ ΂ΒΕ͍ͯΔ௨Γɼঢ়گ࣍ୈͰ͋Δɽ ‣ ͔͠͠ͳ͕ΒɼʮQ஋ͷޡ༻ʯͱʮ౷ܭత༗ҙͷཚ༻ʯ͸ɼσʔλղੳΛߦͬ ͨࡍͷϨϙʔτͰ౓ʑ໨ʹ͢Δɽ ‣ ྫ͑͹ɺճؼϞσϧʹ͓͚ΔʮQʯ΍ʮ"*$ʯͷཚ༻͕͸ͦͷҰྫͰ͋ Δɻ ‣ 4UFQXJTF๏΍-േଇਖ਼ଇԽͰਖ਼͍͠Ϟσϧ͕બ୒Ͱ͖͍ͯΔͱ͍͏Α͏ ͳʮա৴ʯ͕ຮԆ͍ͯ͠Δɽ ‣ ࠓͦ͜ɺσʔλͷऔಘ͔ΒɼϞσϧͷߏஙɼϨϙʔτͷ࡞੒·Ͱͷɼσʔλ ղੳͷϑϩʔΛݟ௚͠ɼࣗ෼ͨͪͷσʔλղੳʹదͨ͠ղੳϑϩʔΛ࡞Γ௚ ͢ඞཁ͕͋Δɽ !9 ࢲ ͨ ͪ ͸ Ͳ ͏ ͢ Δ ͔ Moving to a World Beyond “p < 0.05”

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໨࣍ ‣ ΠϯτϩμΫγϣϯ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰѻ͏಺༰ͱɼൃදͷαϚϦʔ ‣ Q஋ͷ᠘ɻ ‣ Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ ‣ Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δʢ͕͜͜ϙΠϯτʂʣ ‣ Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷ1SJODJQMF ‣ Q஋ͷ໰୊Λड͚ͯɼԿΛ͢΂͖͔ʢ.PWJOHUPBXPSMECFZPOElQzʣ ‣ ʮ౷ܭత༗ҙʯ͔Βͷ୤٫ ‣ "50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇɽ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳΨΠυϥΠϯͱͯ͠ʢൃදऀͷҙݟʣ ‣ ࢲ͕ͨͪɺʮQͷੈքʯ͔Β୤٫͢ΔͨΊʹ !10

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Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔*ʢԾઆݕఆ֓આʣ ‣ ౷ܭతԾઆݕఆͱ͸ʁ ‣ ؼແԾઆΛغ٫͠ରཱԾઆΛࢧ࣋͢Δ͔ɼຢ͸ؼແԾઆΛغ٫͠ͳ͍͔Λ ؍ଌ஋ʹج͍ܾͮͯΊΔͨΊͷ౷ܭతखଓ͖ɻ ‣ ͦͷखଓ͖͸ɼؼແԾઆ͕੒ཱ͍ͯ͠Δʹ΋͔͔ΘΒͣغ٫͢Δ֬཰͕Ћ ҎԼʹͳΔΑ͏ʹܾΊΒΕΔɻ͜ͷЋΛ༗ҙਫ४ͱ͍͏ɻ ‣ 1஋ͱ͸ʁ ‣ ༩͑ΒΕͨσʔλͷ஋ʹରͯ͠ɺؼແԾઆΛغ٫Ͱ͖Δ࠷খͷ༗ҙਫ४ ‣ 1஋ͱ͸ʁʢטΈࡅ͘ͱʣ ‣ 1஋ͱ͸ɺಛఆͷ౷ܭϞσϧͷ΋ͱͰɺσʔλͷ౷ܭతͳཁ໿ʢྫ͑͹ ͭͷ܈ͷฏۉͷࠩɺճؼ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ʣ͕ໃ६͢Δఔ౓Λࣔ͢ࢦඪʂ ‣ ഑෍ࢿྉʹ͸ɺཧ࿦తͳ1஋ͷఆ͕ٛॻ͔Ε͍ͯΔɻ !11

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Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔**ʢԾઆݕఆͷྫɿճؼ܎਺ʣ ‣ &YBNQMFઢܗճؼϞσϧ ‣ ྫ͑͹ɺσʔλʹઢܗճؼϞσϧΛ౰ͯ͸Ίͨ৔߹ͷɺճؼ܎਺Ќʹର͢Δ ݕఆͰ͸ɺɹɹɹɹɹɹ͓ΑͼɹɹɹɹɹɹͰ͋Δɻ ‣ ͜ͷͱ͖ɺ༗ҙਫ४ͷݕఆʢQͰ༗ҙͱ͢Δݕఆʣ͸ɺؼແԾઆ ͕ਖ਼͍͠ʢЌʣͳͷʹɺЌ͸Ͱ͸ͳ͍ͱͯ͠͠·͏֬཰ΛҎԼʹ཈͑ ΔΑ͏ͳݕఆΛߦ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱʹରԠ͢Δɻ ‣ ஫ҙ͢΂͖͜ͱ ‣ 5ZQF**&SSPSʹ͍ͭͯ͸Կ΋ݴٴ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ɻ ‣ σʔλऔಘ΍ɺϞσϧͷਖ਼͠͞ʹ͍ͭͯ͸Ұ੾ݴٴ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ɻ ‣ Өڹͷେ͖͞ʹ͍ͭͯ͸Ұ੾ݴٴ͠ͳ͍ɻ !12 H0 : β = 0 H1 : β ≠ 0

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Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δ* ‣ Ծઆݕఆͷཧ࿦ͷ݁Ռ͸ɺҰൠతʹ ‣ ɹɹɹɹɹ͕౷ܭϞσϧɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹɹ͔ΒϥϯμϜͳඪຊ͕ ಘΒΕͨͱԾఆ͢Δɻ ‣ ͱ͍͏ຐ๏ͷ͜ͱ͹͕࠷ॳʹ͍͍ͭͯΔɻ ‣ σʔλղੳͰ͸ɺ࣍ͷ͕ͭΘ͔Βͳ͍ɻ ‣ σʔλ͕ɺຊ౰ʹ஌Γ͍ͨ฼ूஂ͔ΒϥϯμϜʹऔΒΕ͍ͯΔ͔Ͳ͏͔ ‣ σʔλ͕ɺͲΜͳ෼෍΍Ϟσϧ͔Βੜ੒͞Ε͔ͨ ‣ ࣮ࡍͷղੳͰ͸ɺຐ๏ͷ͜ͱ͹ͷେલఏ͔Βٙ͏ඞཁ͕͋Δɻ ‣ ਪఆྔ΍ɺͦͷݕఆ͸ɺ͜ΕΒʹ͍ͭͯे෼ͳۛຯͱߟ࡯ͷ্ʹ͔͠ҙຯΛ ࣋ͨͳ͍ɻ !13 X1 , . . . , XN {f(x; θ) ; θ ∈ Θ ⊂ R} ݱ࣮͸Ͳ͏ͩʂʁ

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Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δ** ‣ ʲྑ͘ͳ͍ղੳϨϙʔτͷྫʳ ‣ σʔλͷऔಘํ๏ɾղੳϞσϧͷଥ౰ੑʹ͍ͭͯͷใࠂ͕Ͱ͖͍ͯͳ͍ ‣ 1஋΍ɺಛఆͷ౷ܭతͳج४஋͕ߴ͍͜ͱΛɺ൑அͷཧ༝ͱ͍ͯ͠Δɻ ‣ ͜ͷΑ͏ͳ࿦จ͸Ұఆ਺ଘࡏ͍ͯͯ͠ɺ·ͨۀ຿ʹ͓͚ΔσʔλղੳͷϨ ϙʔτͰ΋ࢄݟ͞ΕΔɻ !14 ʲݕূʳ 1஋͸ͦΜͳʹ৴༻Ͱ͖Δͷ͔ʂʁ

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Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δ*** &YBNQMFͦͷ̍ ‣ ҎԼͷϞσϧ͔ΒɺσʔλΛൃੜͤ͞Δɻ ‣ ݁Ռม਺ʹର͢ΔϞσϧ͸ɺ ‣ ͜ͷͱ͖ɺαϯϓϧ਺Λͱͯ͠ɺճ܁Γฦ͠σʔλΛൃੜͤͨ͞ɻ ‣ ൃੜͤͨ͞σʔλʹɺ͢΂ͯͷ9Λઆ໌ม਺ͱͨ͠ઢܗճؼϞσϧΛ౰ͯ͸Ί ͯɺճؼ܎਺Λਪఆ͠ɺQ஋Λܭࢉͯ͠ɺΛԼճͬͨճ਺ΛɺҎԼͷද ʹ·ͱΊͨɻ !15 X1 ∼ N(0,1) X2 = X1 + N(0,1) X3 ∼ Bernoulli(expit(X1 + X2 )) X4 = |X1 + X3 X2 | Y = 0.2X2 + 0.2X3 + N(0,1) X2 X1 X3 X4 ੾ย ༗ҙʹͳͬͨ ճ਺ ܁Γฦ͠ճ਺ճதɺQͰ༗ҙʹͳͬͨճ਺

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Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δ*** &YBNQMFͦͷ ‣ ղੳΛ͍ͯͯ͠ɺɹ͕ޮՌ͕͋ΔΑ͏ͳ݁Ռ͕΄͍͠ͱࢥͬͨʂ ‣ ม਺Λൈ͍ͯΈΑ͏ɻɻɻ ‣ ݁Ռม਺ʹର͢ΔϞσϧʹؚ·Εͳ͍ม਺͕༗ҙʹͳͬͨɾɾɾ ‣ αϯϓϧ਺Λߋʹ૿΍ͯ͠ɺ/ʹͨ͠Β ‣ ؆୯ʹQΛԼճΔճ਺Λ૿΍͢͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ͨɻͭ·ΓɺQ஋ͳΜͯϞσ ϧͷԾఆͱαϯϓϧ਺Ͱ͍͔Α͏ʹ΋ίϯτϩʔϧՄೳɻ/͸ͻͲ ͍ɻ !16 X4 / X1 X3 X4 ੾ย ༗ҙʹͳͬͨ ճ਺ / X1 X3 X4 ੾ย ༗ҙʹͳͬͨ ճ਺ / X1 X3 X4 ੾ย ༗ҙʹͳͬͨ ճ਺

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17 ༗ҙʹ͍ͨ͠ม਺͸ɺ༗ҙʹͰ͖Δʂ Ϗοάσʔλ࠷ߴͰ͢Ͷὑʢൽ೑ʣ

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Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷQSJODJQMF 8BTTFSTUFJO3- -B[BS/" 1஋͸ɺσʔλͱࣗ෼͕Ծఆͨ͠౷ܭϞσϧͷໃ६ͷఔ౓Λࣔ͢஋Ͱ͋Δɻ 1஋͸ɺௐ΂͍ͯΔԾઆ͕ਖ਼͍֬͠཰΍ɺσʔλ͕ۮવͷΈͰ͑ΒΕͨ֬཰ ΛଌΔ΋ͷͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ Պֶతͳ݁࿦΍ɺϏδωε੓ࡦʹ͓͚Δܾఆ͸ɺ1஋͕͋Δᮢ஋Λ௒͔͑ͨ Ͳ͏͔Λࠜڌʹ͢Δ΂͖Ͱ͸ͳ͍ɻ ద੾ͳ౷ܭతਪ࿦ͷͨΊʹ͸ɺݚڀͷதͰௐ΂ΔԾઆͷ਺ɺσʔλऩूͷࡍ ʹߦͬͨ͢΂ͯͷܾఆɺ࣮ߦͨ͢͠΂ͯͷ౷ܭղੳɺͦͯ͠ܭࢉͨ͢͠΂ͯ ͷ1஋Λݚڀऀ͸։ࣔ͢΂͖Ͱ͋Δɻ 1஋΍౷ܭత༗ҙੑ͸ɺޮՌͷେ͖͞΍݁ՌͷॏཁੑΛҙຯ͠ͳ͍ɻ 1஋͸ɺͦΕ͚ͩͰ͸౷ܭϞσϧ΍Ծઆʹؔ͢ΔΤϏσϯεͷɺΑ͍ࢦඪͱ ͸ͳΒͳ͍ɻ !18

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໨࣍ ‣ ΠϯτϩμΫγϣϯ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰѻ͏಺༰ͱɼൃදͷαϚϦʔ ‣ Q஋ͷ᠘ɻ ‣ Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ ‣ Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δʢ͕͜͜ϙΠϯτʂʣ ‣ Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷ1SJODJQMF ‣ Q஋ͷ໰୊Λड͚ͯɼԿΛ͢΂͖͔ʢ.PWJOHUPBXPSMECFZPOElQzʣ ‣ ʮ౷ܭత༗ҙʯ͔Βͷ୤٫ ‣ "50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇɽ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳΨΠυϥΠϯͱͯ͠ʢൃදऀͷҙݟʣ ‣ ࢲ͕ͨͪɺʮQͷੈքʯ͔Β୤٫͢ΔͨΊʹ !19

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౷ܭత༗ҙ͔Βͷ୤٫* ‣ &EHFXPSUI 'JTIFS Ͱ͸1஋͸ɺ݁Ռͷߟ࡯ͷͨΊͷಓ۩ʢ1 ஋ͷ਺஋ͦͷ΋ͷΛؾʹ͍ͯͨ͠ʣ ‣ /FZNBO1FBSTPOͷ౷ܭతԾઆݕఆ͕޿·Γɺ1͕ੜ·Εʮ༗ҙͰ͋ Δ͜ͱʯ΍ʮ4UBUJTUJDBMMZ4JHOJpDBOUʯͱ͍͏ݴ༿ੜ·ΕΔɻ ‣ ͋Δਫ४ΛԼճͬͨʢ༗ҙʣʮҙຯ͕͋Δʯͱ͍͏ಾͷؔ܎͕ੜ·ΕΔɻ ‣ ͍·͸ɺ༗ҙ͡Όͳ͚Ε͹ɺQVCMJTI͠ͳ͍ͱ͍͏ѱ͍෩ைʹͳΓɺՊֶతͳ ࿦จͰग़൛͞ΕΔ΋ͷ͸༗ҙͳ΋ͷ͹͔Γɾɾɾʢग़൛όΠΞεʣ ‣ ͜ͷΑ͏ͳޡΓΛͳͨ͘͢Ίʹɺʮ4UBUJTUJDBMMZ4JHOJpDBOUʢ౷ܭతʹ༗ ҙʣ͸࢖Θͳ͍ʯΑ͏ʹ͠Α͏ʂʢ8BTTFSTUBJO ɻ ‣ ࣍ͷ̐ͭͷݪଇʢ"50.ʣʹج͍ͮͨղੳͱղੳͷධՁΛਪ঑͢Δɻ !20 1 ஋ ޡ ༻ ͷ ྲྀ Ε ౷ܭతʹ༗ҙ ≠ ॏཁͳ݁Ռ ࿦ จ ͷ ओ ு

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"50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇ* ‣ "DDFQU6ODFSUBJOUZʢෆ࣮֬ੑΛड͚ೖΕΔʣ ‣ σʔλͷऔಘํ๏΍ϞσϧͷԾఆ࣍ୈͰɺղੳͷ݁Ռ͸มಈ͢Δɻ ‣ ղੳͷ݁Ռʹ΋ɺ͹Β͖͕ͭ͋Δʢ͖ͪΜͱهࡌʣɻ ‣ ෼Ґ఺ਪఆ஋ͷ෼ࢄਪఆ஋ͷ৴པ۠ؒΛඞͣॻ͘ ‣ #F5IPVHIUGVMʢࢥྀਂ͘ʣ ‣ ʲσʔλͷղੳऀ͕ҙࣝ͢΂͖͜ͱʳ ‣ ௐࠪ΍ղੳͷҙਤ ‣ ҙຯͷ͋ΔޮՌͷେ͖͞ ‣ ໨తʹର͢ΔɺσʔλΛऔಘํ๏ͷద੾͞ɻ ‣ σʔλʹ౰ͯ͸ΊΔख๏ͱɺख๏ͷ౷ܭతੑ࣭ͷཧղɻ ‣ ྫ͑͹ɺઢܗճؼϞσϧͰ͍͑͹ɺ౳෼ࢄੑ !21

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"50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇ** ‣ #F5IPVHIUGVMʢࢥྀਂ͘ʣଓ͖ ‣ ʲղੳϨϙʔτΛݟΔଆ͕ҙࣝ͢Δ΂͖͜ͱʳ ‣ ಘΒΕͨਪఆ஋ͷɺ࣮ࡍతͳ࣮༻తͳҙຯ ‣ ਪఆ஋ͷਖ਼֬͞ʢ͹Β͖ͭʣ ‣ ࢖༻ͨ͠ϞσϧͷԾఆͷద੾ੑ ‣ ղੳऀͷϞσϧʹର͢Δཧղ ‣ ෳ਺Ϟσϧͷൺֱͷ༗ແൺֱͨ͠৔߹ͷ݁ՌͷมԽͱߟ࡯ ‣ Ҏ্Λɺ࠶ݱͰ͖ΔϨϕϧͰɺϨϙʔτʹ·ͱΊΒΕ͍ͯΔ͔ !22 ʲϙΠϯτʳ σʔλղੳͷධՁ͸ɺQ஋΍ͦͷଞͷ౷ܭతई౓ͰߦΘΕΔ΂͖Ͱ͸ͳ͍ɻ ઌߦݚڀௐࠪͷਂ͞ݚڀσβΠϯͱσʔλͷ࣭Ծఆͨ͠ϝΧχζϜͷ ଥ౰ੑݱ࣮తͳՁ஋ൃݟͷ৽نੑΛ૯߹ͯ͠൑அ͢΂͖ ʲΞΠσΞʳ ݁ՌΛCMJOEͯ͠ϨϙʔτΛಡΜͰՁ஋Λ൑அ͢Δͷ΋ͭͷํ๏Ͱ͋Δ

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"50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇ*** ‣ #FUIPVHIUGVMʢࢥྀਂ͘ʣଓ͖ ‣ Ϟσϧͷଥ౰ੑධՁʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɺQ஋Ҏ֎ʹ΋ఏҊ͞Ε͍Δ ‣ ϕΠζҼࢠୈ̎ੈ୅Q஋ʢ4FDPOE(FOFSBUJPOQWBMVFʣͳͲ ‣ ͨͩ͠ɺͦΕ͸ୈ̎ͷQ஋ΛੜΈग़͢΋ͷͰ͋ͬͯ͸ͳΒͳ͍ ‣ #F0QFOʢެ։͢Δʣ ‣ σʔλղੳͷՁ஋͸ɺσʔλͦͷ΋ͷͷ٬؍ੑɻ ‣ ͔͠͠ɺσʔλͷऔಘ͔ΒɺղੳʹࢸΔ·Ͱɺղੳऀ΍ઐ໳Ոͷʮओ؍ੑʯ ΍ʮ൑அʯʹґଘ͢Δ෦෼͕େ͖͍ɻ ‣ ݁ՌΛಡΈղͨ͘Ίʹ͸ɺഎޙʹ͋Δʮߟ͑ํʯ͕ඞཁͰɺͦΕͳ͠ʹୈ ऀతͳϨϏϡʔ͕೉͘͠ɺ٬؍ੑ͕ଛΘΕΔɻ ‣ ղੳͷ٬؍ੑΛอ࣋͢ΔͨΊʹ͸ɺσʔλ΍ղੳͷϓϩηεΛެ։͠ɺஔ ͔Ε͍ͯΔ૝ఆͳͲʹ͍ͭͯৄࡉͳϨϙʔτΛ࡞੒͠ใࠂ͢Δ΂͖ !23

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"50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇ*7 ‣ #F.PEFTUʢݠڏͰ͋Ζ͏ʣ ‣ ౷ܭతͳख๏ʹ͸ɺͦ΋ͦ΋ݶք͕͋Δ͜ͱΛཧղ͢Δɻ ‣ ౷ܭϞσϧ͸ෳࡶͳݱ࣮Λ஧࣮ʹ࠶ݱ͢Δख๏Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺΉ͠Ζݱ৅ͷ ʮ؆қ໛ܕʯɻ ‣ ࢖༻͞ΕͨϞσϧ͕ʮਅͷϞσϧʯͰ͸ͳ͍͜ͱΛཧղ͓ͯ͘͠ ‣ ಘΒΕͨ݁Ռ͸ɺʮϞσϧ͕ਖ਼͍͠ʂʯͱ͍͏Ծఆͷ΋ͱͰ͔͠ҙຯͷͳ ͍΋ͷ ‣ ࣗ෼ͷग़ͨ͠ղੳ݁Ռ΍ɺ݁࿦ʹରͯ͠ʮͲΜͳؒҧ͍ͷՄೳੑ͕͋Δ ͔ʯΛߟ͓͑ͯ͘ඞཁ͕͋Δɻ ‣ ݚڀʹ͓͍ͯ͸ɺಉ͡ςʔϚʹରͯ͠ɺෳ਺ͷಉ༷ͷݚڀ͕ߦΘΕͯɺಉ ͡Α͏ͳ݁Ռ͕ಘΒΕͯɺ͸͡Ίܾͯఆతͳ΋ͷͱͳΔɻ ‣ ݚڀऀ͸ɺ࠶ݱੑΛอূ͢ΔΑ͏ͳݚڀΛ঑ྭ͢΂͖Ͱ͋ΓɺͦͷҙຯͰ ݚڀͷखॱ΍ɺ࢖༻ͨ͠σʔλʹ͍ͭͯɺެදΛߦ͏΂͖Ͱ͋Δɻ !24

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໨࣍ ‣ ΠϯτϩμΫγϣϯ ‣ ͜ͷൃදͰѻ͏಺༰ͱɼൃදͷαϚϦʔ ‣ Q஋ͷ᠘ɻ ‣ Q஋ͱ͸Կ͔ʁ ‣ Q஋Λ࢖͏᠘͸ʮ଍ݩͷ૝ఆʯͰ͋Δʢ͕͜͜ϙΠϯτʂʣ ‣ Q஋ʹର͢Δ"4"ͷ1SJODJQMF ‣ Q஋ͷ໰୊Λड͚ͯɼԿΛ͢΂͖͔ʢ.PWJOHUPBXPSMECFZPOElQzʣ ‣ ʮ౷ܭత༗ҙʯ͔Βͷ୤٫ ‣ "50.ͱ͍͏ݪଇɽ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳΨΠυϥΠϯͱͯ͠ʢൃදऀͷҙݟʣ ‣ ࢲ͕ͨͪɺʮQͷੈքʯ͔Β୤٫͢ΔͨΊʹ !25

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ࢲͨͪ͸Ͳ͏͢Ε͹͍͍ͩΖ͏ʁ ‣ ࣗ෼͕σʔλղੳ͍ͯ͠ΔτϐοΫʹ͓͍ͯɺʮ1஋ʹՁ஋͕͋Δ͔Ͳ͏ ͔ʁʯͱ͍͏࣭໰Λߟ͑Δ͜ͱͰ͋Δɻ ‣ ͦͷͨΊʹ͸ͭͷ࣭໰ʹ஫໨͢Δɻ ‣ σʔλऔಘ͸ɺ͖ͪΜͱσβΠϯ͞Ε͓ͯΓɺ3$5ʢϥϯμϜԽൺֱ࣮ ݧʣͰ͋Δ͔ʁ ‣ ղੳʹ༻͍ΒΕΔϞσϧͷԾఆ͸ଥ౰͋Δ͜ͱ͕ɺઌߦจݙͳͲͷ݁Ռ͔ Β໌Β͔Ͱ͋Δ͔ʁ ‣ ͍ͣΕ͔Ұํ͕/0Ͱ͋ΔͳΒɺ1஋Λར༻ͨ͠Ծઆݕఆͷ݁Ռ͔Βɺ҆қʹ ݁࿦Λಋ͘ͷ͸ద੾ͱ͸ݴ͑ͳ͍ɻ ‣ ͳͥͳΒɺ1஋͕ʮҙຯΛ࣋ͭʯͷ͸ɺ࣮ݧܭըͱϞσϧͷԾఆ͕ଥ౰ͳ ৔߹Ͱ͋ΓɺͦΕҎ֎͸1஋Λܭࢉ͚ͨͩ͠Ͱ͋Δɻ !26

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ଟ͘ͷղੳ͸ʮ໨తʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮσʔλʯ͔Β࢝·Δ* ‣ ύλʔϯ͸ͭɻ ‣ ʢ"ʣ໨త͕͋ͬͯɺσʔλͷूΊํ͔ΒσβΠϯ͢Δ ‣ ʢ#ʣख࣋ͪͷσʔλ͔Βɺ໨తʹରͯ͠Ξϓϩʔν͢Δ ‣ ΋ͪΖΜɺʢ"ʣͷ΄͏͕σʔλղੳͱͯ͠͸ద੾ͳΞϓϩʔνͰ͋Δ͕ɺ ࣮ࡍʢ#ʣͷΑ͏ʹͳͬͯ͠·͏ͷ͸ɺ࢓ํͷͳ͍͜ͱʂ ‣ ӡಈྔ͕ଟ͍ਓ΄Ͳɺ࣬ප཰͕Լ͕Δ͔ʁͱ͍͏ٙ໰ʹ౴͑Δ৔߹ʹɺ 3$5·Ͱ΍Δͱ͍͏ͷ͸ͳ͔ͳ͔೉͍͠ɻ ‣ ࣮ࡍ͸ɺ਎ۙͳਓ΁ଌఆػثΛ഑෍ͯ͠ɺาߦྔͱੜମࢦඪͳͲΛൺֱ͢ Δ͔͠ͳ͍ɻ ‣ ͜ͷ৔߹ͷ஫ҙ఺͸ ‣ ਎ۙͳਓʹ೔ຊશࠃ͔ΒͷϥϯμϜαϯϓϧͰ͸ͳ͍ͷͰɺ·ͣ݁Ռ ͸ҰൠԽͰ͖ͳ͍ɻ ‣ ͦ΋ͦ΋ଌఆػثΛਅ໘໨ʹ࢖͏ͷ͸ɺ݈߁ҙࣝͷߴ͍ਓͳͷͰɺ σʔλऔಘͷόΠΞε͕ੜ͍ͯ͡Δɻ !27

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ଟ͘ͷղੳ͸ʮ໨తʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮσʔλʯ͔Β࢝·Δ** ‣ αϯϓϧͷऔಘʹόΠΞε͕͋Δ͜ͱΛ౿·্͑ͨͰɺؔ܎ੑΛݟΔͨΊʹ ͸ɺઢܗճؼϞσϧΛ౰ͯ͸Ίͯɺճؼ܎਺ΛݟΕ͹͍͍ʂ ‣ ͱͯ͠͸͍͚ͳͯ͘ɺʮϞσϧͷଥ౰ੑʯΛ͖ͪΜͱઆ໌Ͱ͖ΔΑ͏ʹͯ͠ ͍͔ͳͯ͘͸͍͚ͳ͍ɻ ‣ ͦ΋ͦ΋9ͱ:͸ͲΜͳؔ܎ͳΜ͚ͩͬʁ ‣ Ϟσϧͷଥ౰ੑ͸ʁม਺͸ຊ౰ʹઢܗʹޮ͍ͯΔͷʁͳͲͳͲ !28 ༗ҙͩʂʂʂʂ ٩ ๑ÒТÓ๑ ۶

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ଟ͘ͷղੳ͸ʮ໨తʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮσʔλʯ͔Β࢝·Δ*** ‣ ઌ΄ͲͷઢܗճؼϞσϧͷ݁Ռ͸ɺӈ ͷσʔλΛ༻͍ͨ΋ͷɻ ‣ ͔֬ʹɺԿ͔ͷؔ܎͕͋Γͦ͏͚ͩ Ͳɺ҆қʹઢܗʹ͍͍ͯ͠ͷʁ ‣ ͜͏͍͏ͱ͖͸ɺʮઢܗճؼϞσϧΛ ౰ͯ͸Ίͨͱ͖ͷԾఆʯΛ஌͍ͬͯΔ ͔Ͳ͏͔Ͱɺ൑அ͕Ͱ͖Δɻ ‣ Լͷਤ͸ʮ౰ͯ͸ΊWT࢒ࠩʯͷϓ ϩοτɻઢܗճؼϞσϧͷ৔߹͸ʮ෼ ࢄ͕ҰఆʯͳͷͰɺ܏޲͸࢒Βͳ͍͸ ͣɻ ‣ ͔͠͠ɺ໌Β͔ʹ࣍ͷ܏޲͕࢒ͬͯ ͍ͯɺ͜ΕͰ͸ઢܗճؼϞσϧͷԾఆ ͸ຬͨ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ɻ !29

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ଟ͘ͷղੳ͸ʮ໨తʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮσʔλʯ͔Β࢝·Δ*7 ‣ ࣍ͷ߲·ͰϞσϧʹؚΊΔͱɺ࢒ ࠩʹ܏޲͕࢒Βͣɺ͓Αͦ෼ࢄ͸Ұ ఆʹͳͬͨɻ ‣ ઢܗճؼϞσϧͷԾఆ͸ɺ੒ཱͯ͠ ͍Δͱߟ͑ͯ΋ྑͦ͞͏ɻ ‣ ࣍ʹɺ͜͜Ͱਪఆ͞Εͨʮճؼ܎ ਺ʯ͕ɺʮ9͔Β:΁ͷӨڹʯͱߟ͑ ΒΕΔͱͯ͠ɺ͜ͷճؼ܎਺͸Ͳͷ ఔ౓͹Βͭ͘ͷ͔ʁ ‣ ͜ͷ࣭໰ʹ͸࣍ͷͭΛ࣋ͬͯ౴͑ Δɻ ‣ ̍ʣ઴ۙ෼ࢄͱ৴པ۠ؒͷهࡌ ‣ ̎ʣ#PPUTUSBQਪఆྔͷώετά ϥϜͱɺTVNNBSZΛهࡌ !30

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ଟ͘ͷղੳ͸ʮ໨తʯͰ͸ͳ͘ʮσʔλʯ͔Β࢝·Δ7 ‣ σʔλղੳͷऴΘΓʹ͸ɺ࣍ͷͭ͸ඞͣνΣοΫ͢Δɻ ‣ ʮ౷ܭతͳԾఆʯʹର͢Δໃ६͸࠷খݶʹ཈͑ΒΕ͍ͯΔ͔ʁ ‣ σʔλղੳͷ݁Ռͱɺݱ࣮తͳࢲͨͪͷײ֮ʹେ͖͗͢Δᴥᴪ͸ͳ͍͔ʁ ‣ Ϩϙʔτͷ࡞੒ ‣ ·ͣɺσʔλͷऔಘͱɺࠓճͷղੳ݁Ռͷద༻ՄೳൣғΛ໌ه͢Δɻ ‣ ·ͨɺͲͷΑ͏ͳղੳΛݕ౼͠ɺ్தͰͲΜͳ݁ՌΛಘͯɺ࠷ऴ݁Ռʹ ࢸ͔ͬͨΛ໌ه͢Δɻ ‣ ݱ࣮తͳײ֮ͱͷᴥᴪ͕ͳ͍͔ɺᴥᴪ͕͋ΔͷͰ͋Ε͹ͲΜͳݪҼ͔Λॻ ͘ɻ ‣ ྫ͑͹ɺʮʓʓͷΑ͏ͳม਺͕଍Γͯͳ͍ʯͳͲ !31 σʔλͷղੳΛߦͬͨϨϙʔτͰɺਪఆྔͷ͹Β͖ͭͷهࡌ͕ͳ͍৔߹ɺ ͦΕ͸σʔλղੳͰ͸ͳ͍ɻ

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