A future without browsers, February 2017

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February 2017 Kenneth Auchenberg Program Manager, Microsoft A future without browsers

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I’m Kenneth

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Source: http://www.davemanuel.com/2016/01/09/poll-74-of-likely-republican-voters-believe-that-donald-trump-will-probably-win-nomination/

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Browsers

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We are the last generation to know what a “browser” is

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A walk down memory lane

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DESKTOP TOWER WINDOWS XP CRT MONITOR COCA COLA CD-ROM!

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Browsers were document readers

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Source: http://collective-thoughts.com/wp-content/netscape-navigator.JPG Browsers shipped on physical media

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Browsers used to cost money

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Browser start-pages were a thing

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Everything has changed

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Modern browsers are application runtimes

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The browser business model has changed

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Today browsers are free and are funnels to search

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Mozilla Firefox revenue https://static.mozilla.com/moco/en-US/pdf/2015_Mozilla_Audited_Financial_Statement.pdf

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Google (Chrome) revenue https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm

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Apple Safari Revenue https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204417000008/goog10-kq42016.htm

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Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-19/microsoft-turns-bing-from-a-joke-into-an-ad-business Microsoft Bing (Edge) revenue

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Internet adoption has changed

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Source: https://qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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Facebook is the startpage of the next billion

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Form factors have changed

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Source: http://www.highdefgeek.com/visual-portrait-evolution-mobile-phones/

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Mobile internet users

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Saying “mobile internet” = “color tv” Source: Benedict Evans, http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2016/3/29/presentation-mobile-ate-the-world Benedict Evans, Andreessen Horowitz

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Our rendering engines have changed

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Today’s web rendering engines WebKit Blink EdgeHTML Gecko U3 Engine Servo

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In a few years you won’t know you are using a browser.

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Tada! Progressive Web Apps

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Desktop: Web as a runtime Slack VS Code

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Mobile: Web embedded inside native Chrome Custom Tabs Safari View Controllers

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Progressive Web Apps Browser chrome Home screen “App”

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What about the future?

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Web apps will find their way to app stores and redefine them

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Community-based search indexes

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Apps being indexed in search engines

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Search engines and app stores will melt together

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As the browser chrome disappears, new search entry points will appear

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Source: http://www.imore.com/how-to-use-calendar-with-siri

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The front-end role is being redefined, as native and web melts together

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https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Echo-Bluetooth-Speaker-with-WiFi-Alexa/

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Search-based browser business models will get challenged

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Brave Browser & Brave Payments

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Today’s real browsers are social streams + WebViews

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Source: http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/127638842745/seven-years-into-the-mobile-revolution-content-is

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Facebook is a browser

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Twitter is a browser

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If any app can a browser, what is it then?

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New meta-platforms will rise

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Meta platforms Host platforms Android iOS Desktop (Windows) Web platform WeChat Facebook Amazon Alexa Content platforms Instant articles Voice actions Mini programs PWA’s/AMP Chat Social networks Voice platforms Web runtimes

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WeChat “mini program” apps (840 mio users) Source: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IM8dJ01QNpqTBcix_13_yw

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Prediction: React Apps inside Facebook

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Browser rendering engines will become commodity

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New browser-shells appears Non engine differentiation

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We have moved to higher-level authoring abstractions

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Modern framework architectures Source: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9FmT05Q6qpsjgvH1XvCm840yn2eWEg0PMskSQz7k4E/edit

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Web platform primitives are compile targets

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New role for frameworks and JavaScript

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The new “web” is in flux. “ I installed an app on Android phone ” What does install mean? Click a link? Say it? What is an app? Website? WeChat micro program? Android/Chrome? Google/Angular? Facebook/React? Phone? Watch? Amazon Echo?