ICU_183 - Speaker Deck

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Island Climate Update 183 Forecast period: December 2015 – February 2016 Teleconference Thursday 3rd of December 2015 (12:30 PM NZ Dme) 3/12/15 1

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1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecDon and SST anomalies last month (November 2015) 2) ENSO (Paciﬁc Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaDon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaDon (MJO) diagnosDcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 3/12/15 2 Outline

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1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec

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Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 3/12/15 4

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3/12/15 5 hUp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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3/12/15 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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SST anomalies October 2015 SST anomalies November 2015 3/12/15 7

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3/12/15 8

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2) ENSO (Paciﬁc Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa

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SOI and SST NINO INDICES 3/12/15 Datasource = BoM (hUp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10

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The ENSO Precipita

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Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 3/12/15 12

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Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml October 2015 November 2015 Last 5 days (November 30)

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3/12/15 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hUp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 3/12/15 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. DJF 2015/16 0% 0% 100% MAM 2016 0% 3% 97% JJA 2016 17% 52% 31%

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3) MJO diagnos

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (DJF 2015/16) 3/12/15 20

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3/12/15 21

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3/12/15 22 METPI rainfall results

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3/12/15 23 METPI rainfall results

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6) METPI SST forecasts (DJF 2015/16) 3/12/15 24

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