エクスポネンシャル・テクノロジーと未来 / exponential technologies and the future

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ΤΫεϙωϯγϟϧɾ ςΫϊϩδʔͱະདྷ 2017.10.11 ԭࢁ ᠳ ೔ܦςΫϊϩδʔΠϯύΫτ2030

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“21ੈلͷऴΘΓ·ͰʹશͯͷපؾΛ ࣏ྍ͠ɺ༧๷͠ɺ͋ΒΏΔපؾʹ ରԠͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͍ͨ͠” –– ϚʔΫɾβοΧʔόʔά CC BY SA, Alessio Jacona, flickr

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“2030೥ɺ͋Δ͍͸஗͘ͱ΋ 2030೥୅ͷऴΘΓ·Ͱʹ͸ɺ ਓྨ͸શͯͷපؾΛ ৐Γӽ͑ΒΕΔͩΖ͏” –– ϨΠɾΧʔπϫΠϧ TED, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVXQUItNEDQ

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐา͸ࢦ਺ؔ਺త 1997೥ ήϊϜͷղಡୡ੒཰͸1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ΋͏൒෼ऴΘͬͨʹ౳͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲ೥ʣ 1%

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ༧ఆ ࣮ࡍ ςΫϊϩδʔͷਐา͸ࢦ਺ؔ਺త 1997೥ ήϊϜͷղಡୡ੒཰͸1% ଟ͕͘ܭըதࢭΛओு ͔͠͠ʮ 1% ऴΘͬͨͷͳΒɺ΋͏൒෼ऴΘͬͨʹ౳͍͠ʯ ώτήϊϜܭը ਐḿ ʢ60ԯUSD/15ϲ೥ʣ

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اۀͷฏۉण໋ “10೥ޙʹ͸ Fortune 500اۀͷ40% ͕ɺ΋͸΍ଘࡏ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͩΖ͏” Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company (2011) S&P 500ࡏ੶ظؒ͸ େ͖͘ݮগ 67೥ 15೥ ࢈ۀߏ଄ͷมԽͱɺ ϓϨΠϠʔͷೖΕସΘΓ 0 20 40 60 80 1920೥୅ ࠓ೔

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࢈ۀߏ଄ͷมԽ ࣌Ձ૯ֹɿ$28B ैۀһ਺ɿ14ສਓ 1996 2012 2012 ࣌Ձ૯ֹɿ$1B ैۀһ਺ɿ13ਓ ܦӦഁ୼

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ਓ޻஌ೳ (AI)

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ͳ͍ͥ·AIͳͷ͔ Ϋϥ΢υԽʹΑΔେྔͷσʔλ େྔͷσʔλ ϋʔυ΢ΣΞͷਐԽ Ωϟονʔͳࣄྫ GPUʹΑΔฒྻॲཧɺܭࢉ଎౓ͷ޲্ PepperɺΞϧϑΝޟ ੈ͔ؒΒͷظ଴ײ

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AIͷϨΠϠʔ ΋͸΍ਓ޻஌ೳͱݺ͹Εͳ͘ͳͬͨ΋ͷ ਓ޻஌ೳ ػցֶश σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ϧʔϧϕʔευ l AlphaGo l ը૾ೝࣝ l AI in the 1980’s l ࣗಈυΞ l ϧϯό l ʮAͳΒ͹Bʯ l MS OfficeͷΠϧΧ ൚༻ਓ޻஌ೳʁ ݱঢ়ͷ Ԇ௕ઢ্ʹ͸ͳ͍

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σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ͜Ε·Ͱ ཱ͕ࣖͬͯͯ… ໨͕2ͭ͋ͬͯ… ඓ͸ࡾ֯Ͱ… ͦͷԼʹޱ͕… ͢΂ͯਓ͕ڭ͍͑ͯͨ - ώή͸͋Δͷʁͳ͍ͷʁ - ޱ͸Կݸʁ - ͋Ε͸ʁ͜Ε͸ʁ ԿΛͲ͜·Ͱڭ͑Δ΂͖͔ෆ໌ ݱࡏ ػց͕উखʹڞ௨఺Λֶश - ࣅͨࣸਅ͝ͱʹ෼͚ͱ͍ͯʂ - ͋ɺ͜ͷࢁ͕ʮωίʯͶɻ αϯϓϧ਺͕૿͑Ε͹ݸମࠩ͸ٵऩɺ ฏۉ͢ΔͱʮೣΒ͠͞ʯ͕࢒Δ

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ʦᗡ஬ྨʧ τΧήͱͶɺϫχͱ ΧϝͱΠϞϦͱ… αϯϓϧ͑͞༩͑Ε͹ɺ ʮᗡ஬ྨͱ͍͏֓೦ʯͷநग़͸ AI೚ͤͰOK ʮಛ௃ྔʯͱ͸ ʦԁʧ ͋Δ఺͔Βͷڑ཭͕ ౳͍͠఺ͷू߹ ఆٛͰ͖Δ΋ͷ͸ѻ͑Δ ͜Ε·Ͱ σΟʔϓϥʔχϯά ʦᗡ஬ྨʧ ͑ʔɺมԹಈ෺Ͱ ଍͕4ຊ͋ͬͯ… ੑ࣭ྻڍͷΈͰ͸ѻ͑ͳ͍ ఆٛͮ͠Β͍ந৅తͳ֓೦΋ ੑ࣭ͷ··ʢ=ಛ௃ྔʣѻ͑Δ

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ಛ௃ྔͷԋࢉ ֆͷ୯७ͳ߹੒Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺ “ΰοϗΒ͠͞” ͱ͍͏ ಛ௃ྔͷऔΓѻ͍͕Մೳʹ + https://deepart.io/ ݩֆ ը෩

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͋ΒΏΔཁૉͷύϥϝʔλԽ “ϨϯϒϥϯτΒ͠͞” Λ AI ͕Ҽ਺෼ղɻͦΕʹ ԊͬͯΠϝʔδ߹੒ Ϩϯϒϥϯτͷ৽࡞ (Microsoft, 2016.04) ߏਤ ഑৭ චѹ http://www.adweek.com/, “Inside ‘The Next Rembrandt’ ”

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“Synthesizing Obama: Learning Lip Sync from Audio” https://youtu.be/9Yq67CjDqvw ʢಈըʣ

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AIͷ΋ͨΒ͢Ձ஋ Ϧεχϯάͷೳྗ͸ਓؒΛ্ճΔ ೝࣝɿจষɺԻ੠ɺը૾ɺಈը ༧ଌɿ͓͢͢Ί঎඼ɺ਺஋༧ଌ ࠷దԽɿғޟɺࣗಈӡసͳͲ աڈͷ܏޲͔Β౷ܭਪ࿦ ࠷ળखΛબͿ

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- τϨʔμʔ৬͸ AI ʹͦͷ஍ҐΛৡͬͨ - ΞφϦετϨϙʔτͷʮߦؒΛಡΉྗʯ͸ਓؒҎ্ - Ӵ੕ࣸਅͷղੳɿறं৔ͷར༻཰ɺ೶࡞෺ͷ࠿ഓঢ়گ͔Β ౤ࢿ൑அ τϨʔμʔͷ਺ɿ600ਓ → 2ਓ NYΦϑΟεʹ͸200ਓͷAI։ൃऀ ਓ͕ؒར׆༻Ͱ͖ͳ͍σʔλͰ͕ࠩͭ͘ Ϧλʔϯ͸30೥લͷ2-5ഒ http://www.goldmansachs.com/

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ϩϘοτ

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ϩϘοτͷ΋ͨΒ͢Ձ஋ ࣗಈԽ ӡಈɾײ֮ೳྗͷ֦ு - ޮ཰Խͱ࠶ݱੑ޲্ - ਓؒ͸༗ࣄͷରԠʹ - ਫ਼౓ͱࣗ༝౓ͷߴ͍ಈ͖ - ޒײͷೳྗ૿ڧ - ࿡൪໨Ҏ߱ͷײ֮֫ಘ ૢॎࣜͱࣗ૸ࣜͰҟͳΔ༻్

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- ମྗ૿ڧɿ࠲ͬͯखज़Ͱ͖Δ + ΞʔϜϨετ - ࢹྗ૿ڧɿ3D಺ࢹڸ + ζʔϜࢹ 15ഒ - ख͕3ຊʹɿ3ຊͷΞʔϜΛ1ਓͰૢΕΔ - ؔઅػೳ૿ڧɿؔઅՄಈҬ360౓ - ਆܦɺ ے೑ػೳ૿ڧɿࣗಈखͿΕิਖ਼ - খ೴ػೳ૿ڧɿϞʔγϣϯεέʔϧʢ1:5ʣ μɾϰΟϯνʢૢॎࣜϩϘοτʣ ಓ۩Λ௒͑ͨɺਓؒͷೳྗ૿ڧσόΠε https://www.intuitivesurgical.com/

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- ࣗಈֶशɿ͸͡ΊʹखΛऔͬͯ ՝୊Λڭ͑Δͱ͔࣍Βࣗ૸ - ൚༻ੑɿϓϩάϥϛϯάෆཁͰ ଟ༻్ - 2.5ສυϧ/ମɿ࣌څ300ԁ/365೔ ฏۉ౤ࢿճऩظؒ < 1೥ όΫελʔʢࣗ૸ࣜϩϘοτʣ ௚ײతʹڭҭͰ͖Δࣗ૸ϩϘοτ ੡଄ۀͷίετߏ଄͕มԽ http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/

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“The World's First Robotic Kitchen - TV Commercial” https://youtu.be/BSBTCOEdLkA ʢಈըʣ

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ϩϘοτͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ਓతϦιʔεͷ୅ସ ઐ໳ٕज़ͷίϞσΟςΟԽʢӡಈೳྗ֦ுʣ ಈ࡞ʹػցͷϑΟϧλΛ௨͢͜ͱͰɺ ࠶ݱੑ΍޼៛ੑ͕޲্ ࣗಈԽʹΑΔίετ࡟ݮ ϩϘοτͷϢʔςΟϦςΟԽ΋ਐΉ ࣄલ৘ใྔͷ૿Ճʢ஌֮ೳྗ֦ுʣ ޒײ͕ਂ·ΓɺԹ౓΍࣓৔ͳͲ ୈ࿡ײɺୈࣣײΛ࡞ۀʹ൓ө ਓؒͷ ෳ੡ + ೳྗڞ༗ + ೳྗ֦ு

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ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ

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ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͱ͸ ʮैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλͷ1ԯഒ଎͍ʯ – Google ैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλͰ͸ ղ͖ಘͳ͍໰୊͕ղ͚Δ ʮ׬੒͸21ੈلޙ൒Ͱ͸…ʯ ௚ۙ5೥Ͱେ͖ͳਐలɻݚڀ͔Β঎༻ԽϑΣʔζ΁

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ίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ݹయత ίϯϐϡʔλ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ (QC: Quantum Computer) ήʔτํࣜQC ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜQC - ΞχʔϦϯάܕ - ϨʔβʔωοτϫʔΫܕ ͦͷଞͷ “ίϯϐϡʔλ” DNAίϯϐϡʔλ ೪ەίϯϐϡʔλ εύήςΟίϯϐϡʔλ etc. ݱࡏͷίϯϐϡʔλ σδλϧίϯϐϡʔλ Ξφϩάίϯϐϡʔλ

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ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͷछྨ ήʔτํࣜ ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜ - ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͱࠜຊతʹ֓೦͕ҟͳΔɺ෺ཧγϛϡϨʔλ - ༻్ݶΒΕΔ͕͜ͷܕͷΈʹղ͚Δ໰୊͕ଘࡏʢ࠷దԽ໰୊ʣ - D-WaveࣾΑΓ2011೥ʹൃച։࢝ - ࠓͷίϯϐϡʔλͷ਺ສഒૣ্͍Ґޓ׵ʢཧ࿦্ʣ - ϋʔυ͸খϏοτ਺ͷϓϩτλΠϓͷΈଘࡏ - ιϑτ΋·ͩ·ͩݚڀஈ֊ͰΞϧΰϦζϜछྨগͳ͍

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ྔࢠͷੑ࣭ ཻࢠͰ͋Γɺ೾Ͱ΋͋Δ ཻࢠɿͲͪΒ͔ҰํΛ௨Δ ೾ɿಉ࣌ʹ྆ํΛ௨Δ

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ඇྔࢠͱྔࢠ 1 0 1 0 τϥϯδελʢ=εΠονʣ ήʔτํࣜ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ Ұ౓ʹ 24 = 16௨ΓΛಉ࣌ॲཧ ʢNྔࢠϏοτͳΒ 2N ௨Γʣ 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 ैདྷͷίϯϐϡʔλ - 4ϏοτͰ “1101” Λද͍ͯ͠Δ - Ұ౓ʹҰ௨Γͣͭॲཧ ྔࢠͷฒߦॲཧੑ ʢ=଎͍ʣ Λར༻ͨ͠ͷ͕ήʔτํࣜQC

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ήʔτํࣜ ΠδϯάϚγϯํࣜ ΋͏Ұͭͷํࣜ

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޲͍͍ͯΔ໰୊ ࠷దԽ໰୊ ༩͑ΒΕͨ৚݅಺Ͱ໨ඪ஋Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ໰୊ ८ճηʔϧεϚϯ໰୊ NΫΠʔϯ໰୊ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˒ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ ˔ Ұචॻ͖ͷ૯ڑ཭Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ NʷN֨ࢠʹνΣεͷΫΠʔϯΛNݸฒ΂ɺ ܦ࿏্ͷॏෳΛ࠷খԽ͢Δʢແ͘͢ʣ

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໰୊΁ͷΞϓϩʔνʢΞχʔϦϯάܕʣ ͖Ε͍ʹຒΊͳ͍͞ ʮ༨ന͕θϩʹۙͮ͘Α͏ɺ഑ஔΛ࠷దԽʯ ༨ന͕ଟ͍ͱෆ҆ఆʹͳΔྔࢠϞσϧΛ૊Ή ༨ന = 4 ༨ന = 4 ༨ന = 0 ͳ͓ ճ౴ྫ ৚݅ ໰୊ ํ਑

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ʮ༨ന͕ଟ͍ͱෆ҆ఆʹͳΔྔࢠϞσϧʯͷྫ ֤Ϛεʹʮࣗ਎ͷ্Լࠨӈͷ༨ന਺ʯΛ༩͑Δ ͦͷ૯࿨Λ࠷খԽ͢Δ͜ͱΛߟ͑Δ 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 ࿨=25 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 ࿨=14 ్த·Ͱྑ͍͕ ख٧·Γ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ࿨=0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 ࿨=11 ࠷దղ ʢຊ౰͸͜͏ߦ͖͍ͨʣ

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ߴ͍ͱ͜Ζ͔Β௿͍ͱ͜Ζ΁ ← ϒϩοΫͷ഑ஔύλʔϯ → ྔࢠ ࠷Լ఺͕ ༨നθϩʹ૬౰ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓͰ͸ɺ 2าԼ͕ͬͯ3าਐΉͷ͕ ैདྷ ʢඇྔࢠʣͷ΍Γํ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ ࿨ গ ࠷దղ

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ྔࢠ͸ΤωϧΪʔతʹ҆ఆ͢Δঢ়ଶΛ๬Ή ෆ ҆ ఆ Τ ω ϧ Ϊ ồ ҆ ఆ ← ϒϩοΫͷ഑ஔύλʔϯ → ʢϏοτ͕ࣔ͢ύλʔϯʣ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̍ ̌ ̌ ̌ ̌ ྔࢠ ҆ఆՕॴ͸໰୊͔Β ࣗવʹఆ·Γɺ ྔࢠ͕ͦΕΛݟ͚ͭΔ ଟ ༨ ന ͷ ૯ ࿨ গ ྔࢠͷτϯωϧޮՌɿ ࠷దղʹࢸΔ·Ͱɺ ߦ͖ࢭ·ΓΛ͢Γൈ͚ͯ͠·͏

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- ॳ߸ػ͸2011೥ൃചɿ128ྔࢠϏοτ - 2000ྔࢠϏοτ - Google/NASA, ϩοΩʔυϚʔςΟϯ, VW͕ࣾར༻ - ࠃ಺Ͱ͸σϯιʔ͕ަ௨ܦ࿏ͷԋࢉʹಋೖ ΄͔ݚڀࢪઃʢ౦๺େɺૣҴాେʣ D-Wave 2QʢΞχʔϦϯάܕʣ https://www.dwavesys.com/ ઌߦ౤ࢿϕʔεͰͷ঎ۀར༻͕ਐΉ

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ͦͷଞ ஫໨ͷऔΓ૊Έ IBM Q Googleྔࢠਓ޻஌ೳݚڀॴʢQuAILʣ Rigetti Computing 2013೥ઃཱɻ2022೥·ͰʹϋΠϒϦουํࣜͷ ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλΛ঎༻Խ༧ఆ ήʔτํࣜͰ17ྔࢠϏοτɻ2017೥3݄ΑΓ঎ۀར༻։࢝ Ϋϥ΢υͰͷମݧར༻ Λແྉެ։ ถࠃͷྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλ ελʔτΞοϓ ήʔτํࣜ8ྔࢠϏοτɺ2017೥3݄ʹ6400ສυϧͷࢿۚௐୡ

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ྔࢠίϯϐϡʔλͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ߴ଎൚༻ܭࢉʢήʔτํࣜʣ ిࢠϨϕϧͷԽֶγϛϡϨʔγϣϯ ޻ۀ༻ͷ৮ഔɺ৽ૉࡐͷ։ൃɺҩༀ඼ εʔύʔίϯϐϡʔλΛ্ճΔܭࢉ଎౓ ػցֶशͷՃ଎ ֶशϓϩηεͰੜ͡Δ࠷దԽ໰୊Λղ͘ ϋʔυͱͱ΋ʹΞϧΰϦζϜͷ։ൃ͕ਐΉ

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VR, AR, MR

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VR, AR, MRͱ͸ VRɿ100% Ծ૝ۭؒɻͦͷ৔Ͱ࢖͏ͷ͕લఏ AR/MRɿݱ࣮ۭؒ΋ݟ͑Δɻಈ͖ͳ͕ΒମݧՄೳ ݱ࣮ੈք Ծ૝ݱ࣮ ʢVirtual Realityʣ ֦ுݱ࣮ / ࠞ߹ݱ࣮ ʢAugmented Reality / Mixed Realityʣ

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ARʢ֦ுݱ࣮ʣ vs MRʢࠞ߹ݱ࣮ʣ AR (augmented), MR (mixed) ݱ࣮ͷ֦ுͱ͍͏ཱ৔ͷ AR ʹରͯ͠ɺ ݱ࣮ɺԾ૝ੈքͷڥքͷͳ͞Λڧௐͨ͠ͷ͕ MRɻ ࢓૊Έ͸ಉ͡ɺੈք؍ͷҧ͍ ʢຊࢿྉ಺Ͱ͸ “AR” ʹ౷Ұʣ

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େऺ޲͚Ϟσϧ͸ήʔϜ͔Β ೚ఱಊɺ1995೥ όʔνϟϧϘʔΠ (VR) ϙέϞϯGO (AR) NianticʢGoogleΑΓಠཱʣ 2015೥

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2016/4~ɿϧʔϜεέʔϧػೳͰ෦԰ΛVRۭؒʹ ୅දతͳVRϋʔυ Oculus Rift HTC Vive PlayStation VR Google Cardboard 2014/6~ɿຊମ͸εϚϗΛར༻ 2016/10~ɿ೔ຊޠɺ௿Ձ֨ɺPS4Ͱ࡞ಈ 2016/3~ɿFacebookʹΑΔങऩ (2014, $2B)

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୅දతͳARϋʔυ Google Glass 2013/2~2015/1ɿ ϓϥΠόγʔݒ೦͔ΒҰൠൢച͸தࢭʹ Microsoft HoloLens 2016/3~ɿ։ൃऀ޲͚ϞσϧͷΈൢച Meta2 2017/7~ɿ։ൃऀ޲͚Ϟσϧɻ90౓ͷ޿͍ࢹ໺֯ Magic Leapʢະެද ະൃചʣ ϓϩμΫτ׬શൿಗͷ··اۀՁ஋͸ $6B ΁

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ARͷ֩ͱͳΔٕज़ μϒϧΧϝϥʢԞߦ͖ೝࣝʣɺGPSɺ஍࣓ؾηϯαʔɺ Ճ଎౓ηϯαʔɺδϟΠϩηϯαʔ ݱ࣮ۭؒͷ೺Ѳ AR vs ϦΞϧσʔλͷಉҰ࠲ඪॲཧ ϢʔβʔߦಈʹΑΔΠϯϓοτ ࢹઢํ޲͕มΘͬͯ΋ɺ ARσʔλ͸ݱ্࣮ۭؒͰͦͷ·· Ϣʔβ͕ͱͬͨߦಈΛೝࣝ͠ɺ ARۭؒʹϑΟʔυόοΫ൓ө

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௨ৗӡస࣌ɿΧʔφϏػೳɺμογϡϘʔυදࣔ ࣗಈӡస࣌ɿ஍Ҭ৘ใͷදࣔɺίϛϡχέʔγϣϯύωϧ Navion https://wayray.com/ https://wayray.com/industry/

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“SpatialGate & SpatialOrb WIP” https://youtu.be/6D-8kkH1KPE ʢಈըʣ

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VR, ARͷ΋ͨΒ͢Ձ஋ ૣૹΓʹΑΔ࣌ؒ୹ॖɺ࣌ؒٯҠಈʹΑΔ΍Γ௚͠ VRੑɿ࣌ؒͷૢ࡞ੑ VRੑɿۭؒͷૢ࡞ੑ ARੑɿޒײʢϞμϦςΟʣͷ֦ு ߦ͚ͳ͍ͱ͜Ζ΁ߦ͚Δɺ͙͢ʹߦ͚Δɺ ର৅෺ͷ֦େ&ॖখ ηϯαʔ΍IoTͱͷ࿈ܞͰ ݟ͑ͳ͍΋ͷ͕ʮݟ͑ΔʯԽ

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খܕԽͷޙʹى͜Δ࣭తస׵ 1973 2007 1995 ? ??? 2013 1990 σΟεϓϨΠͷมԽ ɾڸɺ૭ ɾ໢ບ౤Ө ɾίϯλΫτϨϯζ ɾϓϩδΣΫγϣϯϚοϐϯά ɾϗϩάϥϜ ɾBCI ϞμϦςΟͷ౷߹ ɾϋϓςΟΫε ɾBCI σόΠεͷ༥߹ ɾεϚϗɺPCɺςϨϏ vs ؟ڸɺڸɺՈ۩ɺۭؒ

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“Desktopography: Supporting Responsive Cohabitation Between Virtual Interfaces and Physical Objects” https://youtu.be/L5mCxfjk6hc ʢಈըʣ

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ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ

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ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͱ͸ σδλϧ৘ใͷਅِΛอূ͢Δٕज़͕ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ Πϯλʔωοτ͸৘ใΛѻ͏ ৘ใ͸ίϐʔɺվ᜵Ͱ͖ͯ͠·͏ ଟ͘ͷ΋ͷ͕৘ใԽ͞Εɺ ίϐʔ΍վ᜵͞ΕΔͱࠔΔ΋ͷ͹͔Γʹ

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࢓૊ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ - औҾΛ·ͱΊͯϒϩοΫͱͯ͠ѻ͏ - ϒϩοΫʹ͸աڈͷऔҾ݁Ռ͕ه࿥͞Ε͍ͯΔ - 10෼͝ͱʹܨ͕ͬͯ৳ͼ͍ͯ͘ A → B A → B → C A → B → C → D ɾ ɾ ɾ ϒϩοΫ + νΣʔϯ = ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ

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࢓૊ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ A → B A → B → C A → B → C → D ɾ ɾ ɾ ʷ Z (10min) ෆਖ਼ॻ͖׵͑͸10෼Ҏ಺ʹࡁ·ͤͳ͍ͱɺ

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࢓૊ΈʢϏοτίΠϯΛྫʹʣ ෆਖ਼ॻ͖׵͑͸10෼Ҏ಺ʹࡁ·ͤͳ͍ͱɺ ϒϩοΫ͕࣍ʑͱ৳ͼͯΠλνͬ͜͝ʹ A → B A → B → C A → B → C → D A → B → C → D → E ʷ Z

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͔͠΋શһ͕ಉ͡νΣʔϯΛ΋͍ͬͯΔ ʮෆਖ਼͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍औҾه࿥୆ாʯ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ A→B ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ ɾ

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৘ใͷ෼ࢄ؅ཧ ͜Ε·Ͱ ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯ - ࠃɺاۀ͕৘ใΛ؅ཧ - Ϣʔβʔ͸৘ใΛ ࢖Θͤͯ΋Β͏ཱ৔ - தԝෆࡏ - Ϣʔβʔશһ͕ର౳

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ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͷ΋ͨΒ͢Ձ஋ ৘ใͷσδλϧԽ - ෳ੡ɺվมͷڪΕ͕ݮΓɺσδλϧԽ͕ଅਐ - ྫɿ໾ॴखଓ͖ɺ਎෼ূ໌ɺࢿ֨΍੒੷ɺܖ໿ॻ ೿ख͞͸ͳ͍͕ࣾձͷΠϯϑϥͱͳΔٕज़ தԝ؅ཧऀͷෆࡏ ݖྗମ͔Βͷ୤ґଘ - ࠃɺେاۀʹཔΒͳ͍ࣾձ΁ ݖྗମʹཔΔϦεΫɿಠࡋԽɺτοϓͱͷڞ౗Ε - ϦεΫྫɿ՟ฎ → ੓෎͕౗ΕͯϋΠύʔΠϯϑϨ - ϦεΫྫɿ೥ۚ → ؅ཧෆඋʹΑΓೲ෇ه࿥͕ফࣦ

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ΤετχΞ ʢਓޱ 100ສਓʣ ిࢠډॅొ࿥ʹΑͬͯ୭Ͱ΋ެڞαʔϏε͕ར༻Մೳ ిࢠखଓ͖ͷΈͰձࣾઃཱʢ๏ਓ੫ 0-20%ʣ e-Residency Ծ૝௨՟ estcoin ͷൃߦ (ICO) ݕ౼த ΤετίΠϯ 99%͕ΠϯλʔωοτͰ׬݁ʢిࢠIDɺిࢠαΠϯʣ ߦ੓खଓ ిࢠډॅऀ 1,000ສਓͷిࢠࠃՈΛ໨ࢦ͢ (~2025)

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ϒϩοΫνΣʔϯͷԠ༻Մೳੑ ॴଐͱ͍͏֓೦ͷมԽ εϚʔτίϯτϥΫτ কདྷͷܖ໿ࣥߦ͕อূ͞ΕΔɻকདྷՁ஋ͷલआΓ͕Մೳʹ ࠃʹݸਓ͕ैଐ͢ΔͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɺ ࠃ੶΍࠾༻՟ฎɺ੍౓͸ݸਓ͕બ୒Մೳͳύϥϝʔλʹ ຽओओٛͷվม ௚઀ຽओ੍΍౤ථݖͷҕୗɺ౤ථݖͷޯ഑෇͚ ͍ͣΕ΋ٕज़্͸Մೳɻ࠾༻͢Δ͔͸ҙࢥܾఆͷ໰୊

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BCI (Brain Computer Interface)

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Brain Computer Interfaceͱ͸ ೴ͦͷ΋ͷΛσόΠεͱͯ͠࢖͏ٕज़ ະདྷͷSFٕज़Ͱ͸ͳ͘ɺݱࡏਐߦܗͷςΫϊϩδʔ ೴͔ΒͷΞ΢τϓοτ - 1998೥ αϧ͕ࢥߟͷΈͰΞʔϜΛૢ࡞ʢ1,000kmԕִʣ - 1999೥ ҙࢥද͕ࣔͰ͖ͳ͍ױऀ ೴೾ʹΑΔจࣈձ࿩࣮ݱ ೴΁ͷΠϯϓοτ - 1961೥ ਓ޻಺ࣖͷୈҰྫ໨ - 1968೥ ਓ޻໢ບͷୈҰྫ໨

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σόΠεͷछྨ ২ࠐΈܕ ૷ணܕ - ಄֖ࠎ಺෦ʹిۃ - ೴ʹࢗೖ·ͨ͸ද໘ཹஔ - ऑ͍೴೾΋ݕग़Մ - खज़ෆཁͰ؆ศ - ײ౓௿͘ൃల్্ - ຖճௐ੔͕ඞཁ

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“Brain-Computer Interface allows Fast, Accurate Typing by people with Paralysis | QPT” https://youtu.be/Rma2JDQaY1I ʢಈըʣ

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2017೥্൒ظͷಈ͖ - ΠʔϩϯϚεΫ૑ઃ (Tesla, SpaceX) - ২ࠐΈܕBCI - ʮ݈߁ਓͷBCIΛ10೥Ҏ಺ ʹ࣮ݱʯ (2017/3) Google, Microsoft, Intel΋ࣾ಺ʹ BCI ෦໳Λ༗͢Δ ΠʔϩϯϚεΫ͸࠷ऴతʹਓؒͱAIͷ༥߹ΛݟࠐΉ - ࢥߟʹΑΔλΠϐϯά σόΠε - ૷ணܕBCI - ʮ100ޠ/minͷػثΛ 2೥Ͱ࡞੒ʯ (2017/4)

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ʮࢥߟ͕͹Εͯ͠·͏ͷͰ͸ʁʯ ೴ͷ͋ΒΏΔిؾత׆ಈ ࢥߟɾҙਤ ࿦ཧ ײ৘ ໋ྩɾࢦࣔ ʮ࿹Λಈ͔ͤʯ ʮ੠Λग़ͤʯ ʮจࣈΛଧͯʯ ग़ྗର৅͸͜ͷϨΠϠʔɻ ໨ͷલͷਓΛ - ࿹͕উखʹԥͬͯ͠·Θͳ͍ - ແ֮ࣗʹޱઆ͍ͯ͠·Θͳ͍ ͷͱಉ͡Α͏ʹ੍ࣗ͸Մೳ ͜ͷϨΠϠʔ͕޷͖উखʹ ग़ྗ͞ΕΔΘ͚Ͱ͸ͳ͍

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ϩϘοτΞʔϜͷ࢓૊Έ ਓؒޠͷ೴೾Λػցֶश͠ɺػցޠʹࣗಈ຋༁ͯ͠ૢ࡞ खΑಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺख Αಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺखΑ ಈ͚ɺखΑಈ͚ɺखΑ… खΛಈ͔࣌͢ͷ ࢲͷ೴೾Ұཡ 1. ʙʙ 2. ʙʙ … ׳ΕΕ͹ɺ೦͡Δ ඞཁ͢Βແ͘ͳΔ

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- ࢹਆܦ΍େ೴Λ௚઀ܹࢗ͢Δ͜ͱ΋Մೳ ϚΠΫ͔ΒௌਆܦɺΧϝϥ͔Β໢ບΛܹࢗ ਓ޻಺ࣖɺਓ޻໢ບ - શ໡ͷਓ͕ਓ޻ࢹ֮ͰॳΊͯݟΔੈք͸ଞͱಉ͔͡ʁ - ໡໨ͷਓ͕൓ڹఆҐͰʮݟΔʯੈք͸Ͳ͏ݟ͑Δͷ͔ʁ - ࢲͷײ͡Δʮ੺ʯͱ͋ͳͨͷʮ੺ʯ͸ಉ͡৭͔ʁ ʮݟ͑ํɾௌ͑͜ํʯ͸Ұ௨ΓͰ͸ͳ͍ ੈքͱΠϯλϥΫτͰ͖Ε͹ɺଞਓͱҧͬͯ΋ͦΕ͸஌֮

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BCIͷՄೳੑ ਎ମͷػցԽ ೴ͱ਎ମͷۭؒత෼཭ ༗ػ෺తʹඇ࿈ଓͳࣗݾɻଘࡏͱ͍͏֓೦ͷస׵ ਎ମత੍ݶͷࠀ෰ ඇѹॖ = 1෼ͷ1 ίϛϡχέʔγϣϯ ݴޠͱ͍͏ϘτϧωοΫͷόΠύε brain-to-brain interface (BBI) ΋࣮ྫ͋Γ ؀ڥͰ͸ͳ͘ɺզʑͷ਎ମΛର৅ͱͨ͠վม

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ະདྷ͸طʹ͜͜ʹ͋Δ ۉ౳ʹߦ͖Θ͍ͨͬͯͳ͍͚ͩͩ –– ΢ΟϦΞϜɾΪϒιϯʢ࡞Ոʣ

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ςΫϊϩδʔͷ΋ͭੑ࣭

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ςΫϊϩδʔͱՊֶ ςΫϊϩδʔͱ͸ ͜ͷੈքͷՊֶ๏ଇΛɺਓؒʹ໾ཱͭܗʹม׵͢Δٕज़ എܠʹ͸ৗʹՊֶ๏ଇ CC BY SA 2.0 Fr, Rama

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“ిؾ͕Կͷ໾ʹཱͭͷ͔ɺࢲʹ͸෼͔ Γ·ͤΜɻͨͩ͋ͳͨํʢେଂলʣ͕ কདྷͦΕʹ՝੫͢Δ͜ͱ͸֬৴͓ͯ͠ Γ·͢” –– ϚΠέϧɾϑΝϥσʔ CC BY 4.0, Fæ

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جૅݚڀͷ৔͸େֶ͔Βاۀ΁ ੡඼։ൃ R & D جૅݚڀ ੡඼ ςΫϊϩδʔ Պֶ๏ଇ - େֶͷݚڀࣨ͝ͱ acqui-hire ͷର৅ʹ - ׶͑ͯϞϯτϦΦʔϧʹAIݚڀॴΛͭ͘ΔFacebookࣾ اۀ಺෦໳ͷൣғ֦େ

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10,000ഒɿ (ର਺εέʔϧ) CC BY 2.0, Steve Jurvetson

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Linear vs Exponential ΞϚϥͷ๏ଇɿਓ͸୹ظతʹ͸ٕज़ͷӨڹΛաେධՁ͠ɺ ௕ظతʹ͸ͦͷӨڹΛաখධՁ͕ͪ͠Ͱ͋Δ linearʢઢܗʣ exponentialʢࢦ਺ؔ਺తʣ

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௚ۙ500೥ͷมԽ ੈքਓޱ ૯ੜ࢈ ফඅ೤ྔ 5ԯਓ 2500ԯUSD 130ԯkcal/day 70ԯਓ 60ஹUSD 1.5ஹkcal/day աڈ500೥ͷඇ࿈ଓతͳมԽ ͦͯ͠มԽͷϖʔε͸େ෯ʹՃ଎ 14ഒ 240ഒ 115ഒ 1500೥ vs ݱ୅ ʢʰαϐΤϯεશ࢙ʱ Yuval Noah Harari – 2011೥ݪஶʣ

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ੈքਓޱʢԯਓʣ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ͍·50ࡀɿੈքਓޱ͸ 40ԯਓ ͱڭΘͬͨੈ୅ ͍· 0 ࡀɿੈքਓޱ͸ 85ԯਓ ͱڭΘΔੈ୅

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൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)

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൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)

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൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ ࣮ࡍͷ੒௕ۂઢ (YoY+100%) vs ίϯαϧςΟϯάϑΝʔϜ4ࣾͷ༧ଌ (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester, Jupiter)

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൑அͷޡṩ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ܞଳి࿩ͷࢢ৔༧ଌ ʢ2002೥૬ର஋ʣ ࣮ࡍ 2002༧ଌ 2004༧ଌ 2006༧ଌ 2008༧ଌ Exponential ͳ੒௕Λݟͯ΋ɺ༧ଌ͸ linear ͷ··

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Exponential ͳੑ࣭͸Ͳ͔͜ΒདྷΔͷ͔ ࢈ۀֵ໋ͷݯઘ͸Կ͔ (T: technology M: money P: people) - ৠؾػؔɺͰ͸ͳ͘ɺੴ୸ → ৠؾػؔ → ੴ୸ͷ ॥؀ߏ଄ - ੴ୸ੜ࢈ྔɿ300ສτϯ/೥ (18ੈل) → 1ԯτϯ/೥ (19ੈل) - ςΫϊϩδʔ͕ςΫϊϩδʔΛਐาͤ͞Δ - ਖ਼ͷ॥؀ߏ଄ ϙδςΟϒϑΟʔυόοΫ͕伴

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“Thinking beyond the rules” - ण໋ͷน͸125ࡀ͔ʁ - ਓྨ͸100m૸Ͱ9ඵΛ੾ΕΔ͔ʁ8ඵ͸੾ΕΔ͔ʁ 65 70 75 80 85 90 ೔ຊਓͷฏۉण໋ʢաڈ50೥ʣ உੑ ঁੑ

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“The Fitness Model Without a Pulse” https://youtu.be/gNUATS8Jhuk ʢಈըʣ

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ʷ3.0 ݄1ׂͷ༧ଌޡࠩ ʹ 2೥Ͱ3ഒͷޡࠩɻExponential ͳ΋ͷ͸ɺ ͦ͏ͱ෼͔͍ͬͯͯ΋࣌ظͱن໛ͷ༧ଌ͕ࠔ೉ ະདྷ͸ਖ਼֬ʹ༧ଌͰ͖ͳ͍ ʷ3.0 +10% ج४ -10%

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༧ଌͰ͖ͳ͍΋ͷ΁ͷରॲ๏ Exponential ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳ΋ͷ Linear ͔ͭ ༧ଌෆೳͳ΋ͷ - ͲΕ͕৳ͼΔ͔ෆ໌ͷͨΊղແ͠ - ίετ΋Ϧλʔϯ΋ linear Ͱ͋ΓɺΪϟϯϒϧ - ϙʔτϑΥϦΦԽ͢Ε͹ɺͲΕ͔͕৳ͼΔ - ίετ͸ linear ͕ͩɺϦλʔϯ͸ exponential ౤ࢿͷܦࡁ߹ཧੑ͕͋Δ = GAFA͕શͯʹखΛग़͢ཧ༝ ςΫϊϩδʔΛ ૣ͘ɺ޿͘ԡ͑͞Δ ͜ͱͷՁ஋

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ਖ਼֬ͳ༧ଌ͸Ͱ͖ͳͯ͘౰વ https://www.weforum.org/

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୭͠΋ࣗ෼ͷ૝૾ྗͷݶք͕ɺ ੈքͷݶքͩͱޡղ͢Δ –– γϣʔϖϯϋ΢Ξʔʢ఩ֶऀʣ

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ϒϩά http://okiyamasho.com ɾུྺ 2010 – ౦ژେֶҩֶ෦ଔۀ 2012 – ٹ໋ٹٸҩʢ೔੺ҩྍηϯλʔʣ 2013 – υΫλʔϔϦɺ཭ౡҩྍʢੴ֞ౡɺ೾রؒౡʣ 2015 – גࣜձࣾϝυϨʔʢࣥߦ໾һʣ 2017 – ϑϦʔʢݚڀऀ/৘ใֶʣ ɾॴଐֶձ ਓ޻஌ೳֶձɺ৘ใॲཧֶձɺ ೔ຊٹٸҩֶձʢઐ໳ҩʣɺ೔ຊ಺Պֶձ ԭࢁ ᠳʢ͓͖΍· ͠ΐ͏ʣ