Chief Scientist - AKADEMIYA2063 CAADP BIENNIAL REVIEW DECISION SUPPORT TOOL (DST) - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCES and APPLICATION Open remarks, by Prof. Dr. Dr. Christian Henning

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR - Public Policy plays a key role achieving sustainable development - Understanding which policies works best for a country complex tasks - Interactive Knowledge exchange between Science-Society required - Interactive Communication Tools 1 Background

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR #2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR - First research with IFPRI and University of Kiel on CAADP 2010 - Development of CGPE model approach and the policy tool CAADP-lab (Henning / Badiane / Krampe 2017) - New development for post-Malabo Agenda: combining computational modeling with AI applications (Tankari 2024, Ziesmer/Henning et al. 2022, 2023 and 2024) 1 Background

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR Figure 1: Intervention logic of the CAADP Agenda 4 Theorical & methodological framework

#2024ReSAKSS #2024ATOR 5 Theorical & methodological framework Expert Knowledge Empirical Data Scientific Model AI estimation Policy-Goal Relation Bayesian estimation Metamodeling CGPE-Model Data generating process Policy Instruments 𝑥 = (𝑥1 , … , 𝑥𝑖 , … , 𝑥𝑛 ) Policy Indicators 𝐼 = (𝐼1 , … , 𝐼𝑘 , … , 𝐼𝑚 ) Goal Indicators Z = (𝑍1 , … , 𝑍𝑘 , … , 𝑍𝑚 ) Simulation data BR-data Learning Learning Governmental Procedures Policy Strategies Policy Beliefs