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Emerson M. Del Ponte Sarah Pethybridge Clive Bock To diagram or not to diagram: Is there a future for diagrammatic visual severity assessments aids?

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Visual (severity) assessment aids Disease quantification - Long history, extensive use - New concepts over the decades - Technology has key influence - Active (peer-reviewed) research - Terminology - not clear!

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What is Severity? Conceptually and operationally Ratio (%) Ordinal (midpoint %) Class (% interval) Ordinal

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Where do diagrams/images fit? International Working group on soybean rust Nominal Ratio Easier decision Tougher decision

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Most common use: Godoy et al (2006) Standard Area Diagram set (SADs)

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Hybrid systems Peterson et al. (1948) - 0-100 score - % severity Ordinal (0-100) Ratio (%)

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Hybrid system Tovar-soto et al (2002) Ratio (%) Ordinal (0-6)

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Hybrid system RamosandIslas (2015) Scores and severity interval (class) Ordinal Class (% interval)

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Belan et al. (2014) multiple systems: Ordinal Class (% interval) Ratio (%)

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Multiple interactive systems

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Confused terminology Are they the same? - Standard Area Diagrams (SAD) - Diagrammatic (nominal, ordinal) Scales - Disease Diagrams - Standard Area Diseased Images

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SAD: active research last 25 years

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Technology for diagram preparation Bock et al. (2016)

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Statistical evaluation of the tool Research data to assess the visual aids for: Bock et al. (2016)

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SAD preparation and evaluation Need to obtain "assumed actual" severity: Repeated assessments using Assess® - Bock et al (2016) Bock et al. (2016)

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Methods: software dominates Pethybridge and Nelson (2015) Del Ponte et al. (2017)

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Methods: Incremental scale H-B : Horsfall-Barratt scale (1945) Del Ponte et al. (2017)

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Do SADs work? Del Ponte et al (unpublished) unaided SAD-aided Larger gains Overall mean gain in precision: 0.08 lower gains

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Del Ponte et al (unpublished) Lower gain Minimal gain Disease characteristics?

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Evaluation of the Estimate app Cercospora Leaf Spot on Table Beets Del Ponte EM, Pethybridge S, et al. unpublished

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Two incremental scales H-B scale 10%-linear

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Second step: pick a unitary % Note: Same image!

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Experimental set: 4 methods and 2 types of variables

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Unaided: baseline accuracy Mean (n=30) pc = 0.84 r = 0.78 Cb = 0.93 Del Ponte et al. (unpublished)

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One-step: ordinal data H-B scale 10%-linear Del Ponte et al. (unpublished)

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How good were the methods? ρ c = 0.94 r = 0.95 C b = 0.99 ρ c = 0.85 r = 0.82 C b = 0.96 ρ c = 0.86 r = 0.82 C b = 0.96 ρ c = 0.86 r = 0.81 C b = 0.94 Unaided ρ c = 0.84 r = 0.78 C b = 0.93 Del Ponte et al. (unpublished)

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Conclusions - H-B and Linear scales no better than no aid - Two-stage better: Linear + direct estimate - Estimate app needs revisions - Single step of severity? - Compare with standard static SAD?

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Thank you!