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$SFBUJWF'BCSJDBUJPO

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2 1BQFS*OGPSNBUJPO $PNQVUBUJPOBM*NBHF.BSLJOHPO.FUBMTWJB-BTFS *OEVDFE)FBUJOH 4FCBTUJBO$VDFSDB 1JPUS%JEZL )BOT1FUFS4FJEFM 7BIJE#BCBFJ .BY1MBODL*OTUJUVUFGPS*OGPSNBUJDT (FSNBOZ 6JWFSTJUBEFMMB4WJ[[FSBJUBMJBOB 4XJU[FSMBOE

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3 • νλϯ΍εςϯϨεͱ͍ͬͨۚଐͷද໘ʹࢎԽൽບΛ࡞Γɼޫͷׯবʹ Αͬͯൃ৭ͤ͞ΔʮϨʔβʔΧϥʔϚʔΩϯάʯͱݺ͹ΕΔٕज़͕͋Δ • Ճ޻ػ͸Ϩʔβʔڧ౓ͳͲෳ਺ͷࣗ༝౓Λ࣋ͪɼௐઅ͸؆୯Ͱ͸ͳ͍ ʢΧϥϑϧ͔ͭߴղ૾౓ͳྑ͍݁ՌΛಘΒΕΔΑ͏ʹ͢Δͷ͸ͳ͓ͷ͜ͱ େมʣ ˣ • ຊ࿦จͰ͸ɼܭଌϕʔε͔ͭσʔλυϦϒϯͰ࠷దԽͨ͠$PMPS*NBHF 3FQSPEVDUJPO8PSLGMPXΛߏஙͨ͠ • ΠϯΫδΣοτϓϦϯλʔͷΧϥʔΩϟϦϒϨʔγϣϯͷΑ͏ͳϫʔ ΫϑϩʔͰͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͢Δ *OUSPEVDUJPO ϨʔβʔΧϥʔϚʔΩϯά ϨʔβʔΧϥʔϚʔΩϯάͷྫ ൃ৭ͷݪཧ

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4 • ৭Λ࠶ݱ͢Δػࡐʹ͓͍ͯɼ৭ҬΛܾఆ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ෆՄܽʢΧϥʔϓϦϯλʔ΋৭Ҭ͕͋Δʣ • Ұํɼ৭ҬͷΈΛ༏ઌ͢Δ͋·Γɼղ૾౓͕ࣦΘΕͯ΋ࠔΔʢFY࠼౓͸ߴ͍͕ϐον͕ૈ͗͢Δʣ • ΑͬͯɼҎԼ̑ͭͷج४Λຬͨ͢Α͏ͳ৭Ҭͷ࠷దԽʢଟ໨త࠷దԽ໰୊ʣ͕ඞཁ • $ISPNBUJDJUZ๛͔ͳ৭࠼Λ࣮ݱ • )VFTQSFBE৭ΛภΒͳ͍Α͏ʹ • 3FTPMVUJPOղ૾౓ • 1FSGPSNBODFTQBDFEJWFSTJUZ • %FTJHOTQBDFEJWFSTJUZ • ྫ͑͹ҹ࡮ػͰ͸ύονΛҹ࡮ͯ͠ܭଌ͠ɼҹ࡮ػͷ৭Ҭʹ߹Θͤͨ-65Λ࡞੒͢Δ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE (BNVU&YQMPSBUJPOʢ৭Ҭ୳ࡧʣ .$.0(" .POUF$BSMP.VMUJPCKFDUJWF(FOFUJD"MHPSJUIN ͷ̍ΠςϨʔγϣϯ

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5 • ৭Ҭ͕ܾఆ͞ΕΕ͹ɼޙ͸ී௨ͷϓϦϯλʔͱಉ༷ͷॲཧͱ ͳ͍ͬͯ͘ • (BNVU.BQQJOH৭Ҭʹ߹Θͤͯը૾Λ৭ม׵ • $PMPS4FQFSBUJPOج४৭ 3(#ϓϦϯλʔͳΒ3 ( # ʹ෼ׂ • )BMGUPOJOHϋʔϑτʔϯҹ࡮ͱಉ͡Α͏ʹೱ౓Λ࠶ݱ • 7FDUPSJ[BUJPOϨʔβʔϚʔΩϯά࣌͸ઢඳըͳͷͰϥ Πϯঢ়ʹ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE *NBHF3FQSPEVDUJPO $PMPS3FQSPEVDUJPO8PSLGMPX

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6 • ϨʔβʔϚʔΩϯά͸ӈͷࣸਅͷΑ͏ͳηοτΞοϓΛ४උ࣮ͯ͠ߦ • Ճ޻ʹ͓͍ͯ͸̓ͭͷύϥϝʔλʔΛར༻ • 'SFRVFODZ܁Γฦ͠प೾਺ • 1PXFSڧ౓ • 1VMTFXJEUIύϧε෯ • 4QFFEՃ޻෦ͷҠಈ଎౓ FYNNT • -JOFDPVOUDMVTUFS಺ͷϥΠϯ਺ • )BUDIJOHDMVTUFS಺ͷϥΠϯؒͷڑ཭ • 1BTTDPVOUԿճಉҰՕॴͷϥΠϯΛඳը͢Δ͔ &YQFSJNFOU "CPVU-BTFS

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7 • ࠨJOQVUJNBHF • தԝ(BNVU.BQQJOH ޙͷը૾ • ӈϨʔβʔϚʔΩϯά ʹΑΔඳը݁Ռ 3FTVMU ݁Ռ

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8 1BQFS*OGPSNBUJPO $PNQVUBUJPOBM1BSRVFUSZ'BCSJDBUFE4UZMF5SBOTGFSXJUI 8PPE1JYFMT +VMJBO*TFSJOHIBVTFO .JDIBFM8FJONBOO 8FJ[IFO)VBOH .BUUIJBT#)VMMJO 6OJWFSTJUZPG#POO (FSNBOZ

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9 • 1BSRVFUSZ ύʔέοτϦʔ ͱݺ͹ΕΔ໦໨Λ׆༻ͨ͠දݱ͕͋Δ • ը૾Λೖྗͱ͠ɼ1BSRVFUSZʹΑΔ࠶ݱ GBCSJDBUJPO Λߦ͏ϫʔΫϑ ϩʔͷ࣮ݱ͓ΑͼۙࣅΞϧΰϦζϜͷఏҊΛߦͬͨ .PUJWBUJPO ຊ࿦จͷϞνϕʔγϣϯͱ΍ͬͨ͜ͱ 1BSRVFUSZʹΑΔϙʔτϨʔτ࡞඼ͷྫ 1BSRVFUSZͷྫ

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10 • ࡞੒ϓϩηε͸ҎԼͷ௨Γ • ໦ࡐΛ༻ҙ͠ɼεΩϟχϯάͯ͠ςΫενϟը૾Λ༻ҙ • λʔήοτΠϝʔδͱ߹Θͤͯɼ૊Έ߹ΘͤʢΧοτύλʔϯͱ഑ஔʣΛܭࢉ • ࣮ࡍʹ໦ࡐΛΧοτ͠ɼ૊Έ߹Θͤɼݻఆ͢Δͱ׬੒ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE 'BCSJDBUJPO1SPDFTT 1SPQPTFE&OEUP&OE1SPDFTT

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11 • ̎छྨͷϑΟϧλʔʢڧ౓ϑΟϧλʔɾκʔϕϧϑΟϧλʔʣΛը૾ʹରͯ͠ద༻͠ɼಛ௃ྔΛநग़ • • λʔήοτը૾ͱςΫενϟ ໦ࡐ ͕େ͖͘ҟͳΔ৭Ҭ΍ϑΟϧλʔԠ౴஋Λ࣋ͪ͏ΔͷͰɼώετάϥϜϚονϯάΛ ద༻ $%'CBTFEIJTUPHSBNFRVBMJ[BUJPO • ͨͩ͠ɼ࣮ࡍʹద༻ͯ͠ΈΔͱద༻͕ա৒Ͱ͋ͬͨͨΊɼݩͷλʔήοτڧ౓ͱద༻ޙͷڧ౓Λิؒͨ͠ • • *5λʔήοτը૾ɼ*4ιʔεςΫενϟ F(I) = (wintens ∙ Fintens (I), wedge ∙ Fedge (I)) T F′ intens (IT ) = (1 − whist )Fintens (IT ) + whist Fequalize (It , IS ) 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE 'FBUVSF&YUSBDUJPO MFGUݩը૾ NJEEMFMFGUڧ౓ϑΟϧλͷΈ NJEEMFSJHIUิؒ SJHIUώετάϥϜϚονϯά

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12 • λʔήοτը૾Λλʔήοτύονʹ෼ׂ͠ɼλʔήοτύονͱׂΓ౰ͯΔιʔεύονͷಛ௃ྔͷࠩ෼͕খ͘͞ͳΔ Α͏ʹɼιʔεύονΛܾఆ͍͖ͯ͠·͢ • • 15λʔήοτύονɼ14ιʔεύον • ͳ͓ɼλʔήοτը૾ͷύονͷॱ൪͸TBMJFODZTDPSF͔த৺͔Βͷڑ཭ʹґଘͯ͠ιʔτ͢Δ Di,j (x) = np ∑ k=1 (F(PT (pk )) − F(IS,i,ϕj (x + pk ))) 2 PS = arg mini,j,x Di,j (x) 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE $VUQBUUFSOPQUJNJ[BUJPO ࠨTBMJFODZTDPSF ӈத৺͔Βͷڑ཭

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13 • ̎ͭͷΞϧΰϦζϜ͕ఏҊ͞Ε͍ͯΔ • PQUJPOBMͱͳ͍ͬͯͨͷͰຊൃදͰ͸লུ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE 1BUDITIBQFPQUJNJ[BUJPO 4IBQFPQUJNJ[BUJPOͷ̍ྫ

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14 3FTVMUT ݁Ռ

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15 1BQFS*OGPSNBUJPO 3PCP$VU)PUXJSF$VUUJOHXJUI3PCPUDPOUSPMMFE'MFYJCMF 3PET 4JNPO%VFOTFS 3PJ1PSBOOF #FSOIBSE5IPNBT[FXTLJ 4UFMJBO$PSPT &5);VSJDI 6OJWFSTJUZPG)BJGB 6OJWFSTJUFEF.POUSFBM

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16 • σϡΞϧϩϘοτΞʔϜΛ༻͍ ͯɼϗοτϫΠϠʔΧοτʹΑ ΔGBCSJDBUJPOख๏ͷఏҊ • ࣮ݱʹ͸ओʹ̏ͭͷλεΫͷ࣮ ߦ͕ඞཁ • ϩϘοτΞʔϜͷಈ͖ʹ ൐͏ܗঢ়౳ͷมԽ • λʔήοτܗঢ়ʹͳΔΑ ͏ͳαʔϑΣεۙࣅ • ϫΠϠʔΧοτΛߦ͏্ Ͱͷύεܗ੒ 0WFSWJFX ຊ࿦จͷશମ૾

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17 • ϩϘοτΞʔϜͷ֯౓RͱͦΕʹΑܾͬͯ·ΔϫΠϠʔܗঢ় ࠲ඪ YΛλʔ ήοτܗঢ়͔ΒٻΊ͍ͯ͘ • 6L͸λʔήοτܗঢ়ͷ·ͩΧοτ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍෦෼ͷ࠲ඪͰɼ6LʹରԠ͢ ΔY࠲ඪΛܾఆ͍ͯ͘͠ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE ϫΠϠʔܗঢ়ͷܾΊํ ಈ࡞؀ڥͱؔ࿈ύϥϝʔλ ϫΠϠʔܗঢ়ͷܾΊํ

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18 • ϫΠϠʔܗঢ়ɾಈ࡞ͷ࠷దԽΛ ߦ͍ͬͯΔ • ͳ͓ɼ࠷దԽΛߦ͏্Ͱ͸࠷ॳ ʹϥϑͳύε͕ඞཁͱͳΔ͕ɼ ͜ͷύε͸Ϣʔβʔʹॻ͔ͤͯ ΋ྑ͍͠ɼ׬શࣗಈԽͰߦ͏͜ ͱ΋Ͱ͖Δ 1SPQPTFE.FUIPE ϫΠϠʔಈ࡞ͷ࠷దԽ

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19 • ܗͷ੾Γग़͠Λͨ͠ΓɼΧοτͨ͠΋ͷ͔Βͷ૊Έཱͯ΋Ͱ͖Δ 3FTVMUT 'BCSJDBUJPO3FTVMUT ݁Ռ