Executive Chairperson AKADEMIYA2063 MEGATRENDS KNOWLEDGE REQUIREMENTS Ousmane Badiane, PhD, Dr. hc

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR The Post Malabo Agenda Megatrends and Knowledge Needs Renewal and Reversal since Maputo Opportunities for Revitalization Priorities for Post Malabo Data and Knowledge gaps Outline

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR RENEWAL AND REVERSAL Looking Back at Two Decades under CAADP

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS Strongest pace of sustained economic growth since independence

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS Reversal of rising poverty and malnutrition levels in 80s and 90s

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS Reversal of decline in annual agricultural expenditure levels

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR LOOKING BACK AT CAADP YEARS Reversal of declining land and labor productivity levels in 80s and 90s

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR PROGRESSING STALLING Sharp deceleration of per capita income growth in recent years

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR PROGRESSING STALLING After decade of decline malnutrition levels are rising again

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR PROGRESSING STALLING Flat and declining share of public expenditure invested in agriculture

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR PROGRESSING STALLING After decade of decline public debt levels are rising again

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR REVITALIZATION Drivers for successful Post Malabo agenda

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Rising level of intra-African agricultural trade: more than doubled US$ Billion

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Rapidly expanding domestic market for food fueled by income growth

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Fastest rate of agricultural growth of any region

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Rapidly rising processing sector transforming food value chains

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Dominant share of processed foods in intra-African trade

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Harnessing safe use of biotechnologies to boost productivity and resilience Bt Pest Resistant Cowpea Bt Drought Resistant Maize Courtesy: African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF). Kenya

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD ON Innovations thru remote sensing and artificial intelligence in agriculture

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DEFINING PRIORITIES FOR POST MALABO Tackling legacy and emerging challenges

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES Wide-ranging effects of climate change across all economic sectors Source: Fofana, I. 2023. Economic cost of climate change and adaptation strategies. CACCI Field Notes, no. 4. AKADEMIYA2063 Source: Fofana, I. 2023. Economic cost of climate change and adaptation strategies. CACCI Field Notes, no. 4. AKADEMIYA2063 Change in sectoral value added (%): Mali

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES High level of vulnerability to shocks in general Source: Badiane et al. 2022. Growth and Employment Effects among African Countries. Ukraine Crisis Brief, no. 5. AKADEMIYA2063 Poverty Effects of global trade disruption from Ukraine war in Kenya

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR OLD AND NEW CHALLENGES Changing nature of demand constraints facing smallholder producers Source: Badiane et al. 2021. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report. AKADEMIYA2063

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS For Planning and Implementation of Post Malabo

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Investment and expenditure prioritization, targeting and effectiveness Poverty impact of successful Malabo Agenda: Kenya Investment typology for maximum poverty effects: Ghana Foresight and Tracking Analytics

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Foresight and Tracking Analytics Climate adaption investment options and cost Minimum investment scale: share of cultivated areas to be covered (%)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS 2023 Barley production forecast: Ethiopia Foresight and Tracking Analytics Potential effects of global trade shocks Gross Domestic Product (Bn. KSh): Kenya Timely and granular agricultural sector data

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS GHG emissions, biogeophysical and climate risk variables Methane concentration Methane over cropland Soil organic carbon content Land use and land cover Drought risk index Rainfall anomaly

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Emerging processing sector and agrifood industry dynamics Labor productivity growth (%) Capital-labor growth (%) Source: Ellis, M. et al. 2022. ReSAKSS ATOR. AKADEMIYA2063

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Economic growth and processing sector firm level innovation Rate innovation food and non-food processing sector Source: Tadesse and Gachango. 2022. ReSAKSS ATOR. AKADEMIYA2063 DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Emerging processing sector and agrifood industry dynamics

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Nature and drivers of community level vulnerability Household vulnerability index

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS Nature and drivers of community level vulnerability Household micronutrient adequacy gaps

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR DATA AND KNOWLEDGE GAPS AKADEMIYA2063 Flagships for Data and Analytics

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