The hidden dance of complexity (ConFoo 2025)

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THE HIDDEN DANCE OF COMPLEXITY Michiel Rook @michieltcs https:/ /www. fl ickr.com/photos/mixtapepl/7165728374/

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine AN INTRODUCTION TO

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY (THEORY)

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ELEMENTS FROM

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SAFETY SCIENCE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEMS THINKING

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine INFORMATION THEORY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHAOS THEORY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WARNING: IT'S PRETTY COMPLICATED

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY IS ALL AROUND US

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine N E I L T H E I S E "Everywhere we look, we see complexity. In everything we do, we participate in complexity."

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/trees-canopy-crown-shyness-forest-4450514/

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/birds-swarm- fl ock-of-birds-heaven-1714542/

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https:/ /w.wiki/CZ7i

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https:/ /www.vecteezy.com/photo/43993323-nuclear-plant-sunset-silhouette

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/city-sun-sky-mood-architecture-5092432/

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/people-crowd-street-crossing-japan-4259948/

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CHARACTERISTICS OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHANGES NOT REVERSIBLE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine EVENTS NOT REPLICABLE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NON-LINEARITY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE WHOLE IS GREATER THAN THE SUM OF ITS PARTS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS

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https:/ /github.com/theabbie/DoublePendulum

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine BUTTERFLY EFFECT

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine EMERGENCE

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/castle-storm-clouds-weather-rain-8033915/

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine (APPARENT) RANDOMNESS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine POSITIVE FEEDBACK

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NEGATIVE FEEDBACK

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/rain-drops-water-water-droplets-7508393/

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SELF-ORGANIZATION

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Components interacting in ways that cannot be predicted." C H A R L ES P E R R OW

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/people-crowd-street-crossing-japan-4259948/

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine FRICTION

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Everything is very simple in war, but the simplest thing is di ff i cult. These di ff i culties accumulate and produce a friction." – CA R L VO N C L AU S E W I T Z

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COUPLING

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine TIGHT COUPLING TIGHT TOLERANCES NO DELAYS OR SLACK CENTRALIZED & RIGID INTERDEPENDENCE LOOSE COUPLING DECENTRALIZED BUFFERS NO RIGID SEQUENCES TIME TO CORRECT PROBLEMS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHAOTIC SYSTEMS?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "In a chaotic system, a computer model shows that the same starting conditions will always generate the same emergent properties. The whole is predictably greater than the sum of its parts." S I D N E Y D E K K E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HOW DO WE (HUMANS) PERCEIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE DON'T (REALLY) UNDERSTAND

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Complex systems can never be wholly understood or exhaustively described. If they could, they would either not be complex, or the entity understanding them would have to be as complex as the whole system." S I D N E Y D E K K E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "As the complexity of a system increases, the accuracy of any single agent's own model of that system decreases rapidly." DAV I D WO O D S

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine OUR MODELS DO NOT MATCH REALITY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine FEEDBACK LOOPS NOT (ALWAYS) UNIDIRECTIONAL!

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https:/ /w.wiki/CyTs

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE SEARCH FOR (PERFECT) INFORMATION

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE OVERSIMPLIFY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine NEWTONIAN & CARTESIAN VIEWS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Cartesians view the mind as being wholly separate from the corporeal body"

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REDUCTIONISM

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "To every action, there is always opposed an equal reaction"

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CAUSE EFFECT

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CONSPIRACY THEORIES

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "The more elaborate a conspiracy theory is, and the more people that would need to be involved to pull it o ff , the less likely it is true." M I C H A E L S H E R M E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HOW DO ORGANIZATIONS DEAL WITH COMPLEX SYSTEMS?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "When the variety or complexity of the environment exceeds the capacity of a system (natural or arti fi cial) the environment will dominate and ultimately destroy that system." W. R O S S AS H BY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEX DOMAIN = COMPLEX ORGANIZATION

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "No organization operates in a vacuum." S I D N E Y D E K K E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine DIVERSITY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CONTRADICTING GOALS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine LINEAR MEASURES TO NON-LINEAR EFFECTS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine False Ballistic Missile Alert Investigation for January 13, 2018, Hawaii Department of Defense

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine CHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine TO OBSERVE IS TO CHANGE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE MAKE LIFE (MORE) DIFFICULT

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine OUTSOURCING?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine DISTRIBUTED ARCHITECTURES

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine PLATFORMS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REDUNDANCY & AUTOMATION

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Everything is unprecedented until it happens for the fi rst time.” C H ES L E Y B . S U L L E N B E R G E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine INCIDENTS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SURPRISING FAILURE MODES

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEM INCIDENTS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SYSTEMS THINKING

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Failures in complex systems require multiple contributing causes, each necessary but only jointly su ffi cient.” R I C H A R D C O O K

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "What you call 'root cause' is simply the place where you stop looking any further." S I D N E Y D E K K E R

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ROOT CAUSES?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “Finding the root cause of a failure is like fi nding the root cause of a success.” J O H N A L L S PAW

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine 5 WHYS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine Figure 1 A causal event tree (adapted from ref. 21). ID, identification; IT, information technology. The problem with… Alan J. Card - The problem with '5 whys' BMJ quality & safety · September 2016 DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2016-005849

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H . L . M E N C K E N

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine SO WHAT?

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THE WORLD IS VUCA

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine VOLATILE UNCERTAIN COMPLEX AMBIGUOUS

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY = REALITY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine REALITY = COMPLEXITY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COMPLEXITY REQUIRES NUANCE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE DO SEE PATTERNS

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/performance-music-musician-concert-3202707/

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https:/ /pixabay.com/photos/forest-trees-path-nature-autumn-8584311/

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine WE CAN ADAPT

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "There is only one way the plan can go right, but any number of ways in which it can go wrong." – S T E P H E N B U N G AY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth." – M I K E T YS O N

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine ORGANIZE FOR WHAT WE DON'T KNOW

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine POKE THE SYSTEM TO LEARN THE SYSTEM

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine COPING WITH COMPLEXITY IS COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine RESILIENCE

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine "Requires expertise, experience, autonomy, imaginative adaptability, heuristics, and the ability to make, adjust and reject provisional conclusions as information changes." T H E J O L LY C O N T RA R I A N

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@michieltcs #StandWithUkraine HUMANS ARE ADAPTABLE ASSETS

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine THANK YOU FOR LISTENING! @michieltcs / @michielrook.bsky.social email: michiel@michielrook.nl www.michielrook.nl

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@michieltcs @michieltcs #StandWithUkraine https://www.michielrook.nl/2024/08/literature-tips/