The Perils of Prediction James Box UX Munich 2013

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Innovation is outpacing design * * a long hunch

NO. OF CONNECTIONS TIME COMPLEXITY

1980 2004 8 BILLION PAGES 1998 25 MILLION PAGES

1970s INTEL 4004 2500 PEOPLE 1980s INTEL 286 134,000 PEOPLE 2000s PENTIUM III 32 MILLION PEOPLE 2011 CORE i7 EXTREME 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE

“The central act of the coming era is to connect everything to everything. Kevin Kelly, Out of Control, 1994

“The value of a telelcommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. Metcalfe’s Law

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• Problems of simplicity c17,18,19th • Disorganised complexity First half c20th • Organised complexity Second half c20th until now

““They are all problems which involve dealing simultaneously with a sizable number of factors which are interrelated into an organic whole. “ Warren Weaver, Science and Complexity, 1948.

The interconnectedness of everything

“I don’t see the Kindle as a device, I see it as a service. Jeff Bezos

READER HARDWARE SOFTWARE STORE & MARKETPLACE WRITER

Responsive design

So, what are we designing?

“Always design a thing by considering it in its next larger context – a chair in a room, a room in a house, a house in an environment, an environment in a city plan. Eliel Saarinen

Combinatorial explosion

““We abhor complexity, and seek to simplify things whenever we can by whatever means we have at hand.” James Burke

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Narrative

Narrative Fallacy

Map vs. Territory

We are designing for a VUCA world

INNOVATION CONTROL

“Beyond a certain critical mass, a building becomes a Big Building. Such a mass can no longer be controlled by a single architectural gesture, or even by any combination of architectural gestures… Rem Koolhaas, Bigness

“…This impossibility triggers the autonomy of its parts, but that is not the same as fragmentation: the parts remain commi!ed to the whole. Rem Koolhaas, Bigness

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“I thought of objects being like biological cells…only able to communicate with messages. Alan Kay, The Meaning of “Object-Oriented Programming

Adaptive systems

Designing for emergence

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• New vocabulary • Blocks, not buildings • Stewardship • Prototype • Just-enoughism • Desire lines • Wabi sabi

1. New vocabulary

COMPS PAGES SPECIFICATIONS SITES

COMPS LANGUAGE PAGES PATTERNS SPECIFICATIONS PROTOTYPES SITES SERVICES

PLANNING PREDICTION NEGOTIATION CONTROL

PLANNING LEARNING PREDICTION ADAPTATION NEGOTIATION COLLABORATION CONTROL DISTRIBUTION

2. Blocks, not buildings

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onality traits are… , non-judgemental, like mine (as a ay it… smile while telling me something I , or at least am happy to know. day it… n, clichés, patronises me and makes pid. Worse still, it tries to sales pitch as advice. me by nding people other than Family.co.uk bering who I am and what I like. y I love it!) familynest.co.uk… Rejects jargon Financial organisations are plagued by nuanced terminology that confuses, patronises and ultimately excludes its intended audience. You won't find that here. And if you do, you're welcome to wrap our knuckles. Enables We aim to give our users the confidence to make informed decisions about their family finances. Is honest and impartial We're not here to sell you. You get enough of that from other companies. Any advice we give will be honest, even if that means recommending our competitors. Focuses on quality not quantity We know parents have limited time (most of us are parents ourselves) and are already bombarded by demands for their attention and money. We promise to keep it short and not outstay our welcome. Provides content of distinction Offers a collection of content that cannot be seen elsewhere in an engaging, easy to consume format. Design Principles

3. Stewardship

““In this operational model the lead designer need not play the role of Maestro. Rather, they initiate the design process with a provocation and continually curate the results. It’s more like editing a live broadcast than it is painting an image.” Bryan Boyer, Brute Force Architecture & its Discontents

4. Prototype

USER EVIDENCE USER RESEARCH DESIGN THEORY

5. Just–enoughism

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6. Desire Lines

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7. Wabi sabi

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Thanks.

Icons • Telephone. Designed by Proletkult Graphik • China. Designed by Designed by James Keuning • City. Designed by Rémy Médard, from The Noun Project • Theatre. Designed by Jonathan C. Dietrich • Colosseum. Designed by Designed by Mark Macrory • Referigerator. Designed by Ambar Bhusari • Cell phone. Designed by Designed by Marwa Boukarim Courtesy of The Noun Project

Elsewhere • h p://people.physics.anu.edu.au/~tas110/Teaching/Lectures/ L1/Material/WEAVER1947.pdf • h p://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJmGrNdJ5Gw • h p://www.dachisgroup.com/2012/02/wrangling-complexity- the-service-oriented-company/ • h p://etc.ohiswearesure.com/2012/05/brute-force- architecture/ • h ps://vimeo.com/51132200 • h p://www.steelwedge.com/blog/control-and-growth-tipping- the-balance-in-a-vuca-world.html