Slide 1

Slide 1 text

Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

THE HISTORY

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

…using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done” is at best a weak idea

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

7:20AM Story Point

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT 1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

Plans based on average are wrong on average

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

No content

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not deterministically

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

No content

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

WORK IN PROGRESS

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

Monte Carlo Simulation

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

EXPERIMENT

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

EXPERIMENT

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

1 4 10,000x BASIC

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

When will be

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

How stories can be

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

START FORECASTING in just Four weeks

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE THROUGPUT

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Use the assumptions of to verify stability

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

CFD

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

Finish all work that is started

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

Work in Progress should be constant

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

USE consistent UNITS

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

Think probabilistically

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

No content

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

scatterplot

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

stories with

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

Ensure stability with assumptions of

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

Thank you

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

No content