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Exploring a unique approach to estimation Managing Consultant Telstra Purple
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THE HISTORY
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…using them [story points] to predict “when we’ll be done” is at best a weak idea
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PROBLEMS WITH STORY POINTS
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7:20AM Story Point
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How long does it take to get to work? EXPERIMENT 1st March 2nd March 7:00AM 8:10AM 7:00AM 7:30AM 3rd March 7:00AM 7:20AM
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Plans based on average are wrong on average
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PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING Reforecast with new information Think probabilistically, not deterministically
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Scatterplot Cycle Time (Days)
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DON’T ESTIMATE STORIES
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WORK IN PROGRESS
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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EXPERIMENT
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EXPERIMENT
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1 4 10,000x BASIC
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When will all the work be 1 1st Feb 2nd Feb 3rd Feb 4th Feb 0 2 1
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When will be
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How stories can be
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START FORECASTING in just Four weeks
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LITTLE’S LAW AVERAGE CYCLE TIME = AVERAGE WIP / AVERAGE THROUGPUT
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Use the assumptions of to verify stability
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CFD
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Average Arrival Rate Average Departure Rate matches
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Finish all work that is started
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Work in Progress should be constant
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Work in Progress should be constant Average Age of
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USE consistent UNITS
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Think probabilistically
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scatterplot
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stories with
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Completion Predict with Monte Carlo Simulation
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Ensure stability with assumptions of
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IMPACTS Tomorrows PREDICTABILITY Today’s actions
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Thank you
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