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@hannah_bo_banna creativity, crystal balls & eating ground glass @hannah_bo_banna

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@hannah_bo_banna hello there!

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bad at photos, pretty good at other stuff

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@hannah_bo_banna my team’s job is to make things that journalists want to write about & people want to share

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@hannah_bo_banna huh?

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this was created for PartyCasino, we analysed forty years of box office data, to see which actors made the most profitable films

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links from over 120 sites

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this was created for Lenstore, it’s the world’s first gigapixel time lapse panorama of London’s skyline

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@hannah_bo_banna because it’s a gigapixel photo you can zoom in wherever you want

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@hannah_bo_banna & because it’s a time lapse you can also see how London looks across a full day

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links from over 150 sites

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this was created for GoCompare, it’s a tribute to the modernist buildings we’ve lost to the wrecking ball

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links from over 200 sites

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@hannah_bo_banna over the past 18 months, I’ve been responsible for launching more than 100 creative pieces which have generated over 5,300 pieces of linked coverage

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@hannah_bo_banna incidentally, you know why do we do this, right?

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@hannah_bo_banna to gain links & coverage for our clients

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@hannah_bo_banna links from highly authoritative sites, increase the authority of our clients’ sites

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@hannah_bo_banna over time this translates into stronger organic rankings

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stronger organic rankings = more money (for the vast majority of websites)

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so, what’s this talk all about?

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@hannah_bo_banna towards the end of last year someone asked me:

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@hannah_bo_banna “how good are you at predicting whether or not a piece will be successful?”

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@hannah_bo_banna then I was like, wait a minute…

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@hannah_bo_banna am I really good at this?

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@hannah_bo_banna when it comes to memory humans are hellishly unreliable

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@hannah_bo_banna ever put something in a safe place, & then forgotten where that safe place is?

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@hannah_bo_banna I feel like this is pretty common

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@hannah_bo_banna & most people would accept they have a poor memory for that sort of thing

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@hannah_bo_banna but how good are you at remembering past events?

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@hannah_bo_banna most people think that they’re able to accurately recall things that happened in the past & how they were feeling at the time

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@hannah_bo_banna however

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@hannah_bo_banna neuroscientists have discovered that each time we remember something, we reconstruct the event

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we reassemble it

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@hannah_bo_banna additionally

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@hannah_bo_banna psychologists have noted that we suppress memories that are painful or damaging to our self-esteem

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@hannah_bo_banna what does this mean?

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@hannah_bo_banna let me give you an example:

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let’s imagine you’ve asked me whether or not I thought that piece would be a success

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@hannah_bo_banna right now my brain’s doing something like this…

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m going back in time…

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@hannah_bo_banna we’d have been working on it through September 2017

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@hannah_bo_banna there was a bunch of other stuff going on at the same time (we were selling the company, I did BrightonSEO, new client pitches)

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m thinking about the challenges we had producing the piece

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@hannah_bo_banna then this pops in my brain

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links from over 120 sites

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m trying to remember how I felt about the piece right before it launched

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@hannah_bo_banna then this pops in my brain

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links from over 120 sites

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@hannah_bo_banna I think that I felt the data revealed some great stories…

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@hannah_bo_banna who’s the most profitable actor in Hollywood? Tom Cruise? Brad Pitt? The Rock?

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actually, it’s this guy, in the blue vest

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@hannah_bo_banna but am I just reconstructing my memory based on what happened post-launch?

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@hannah_bo_banna remember this?

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@hannah_bo_banna psychologists have noted that we suppress memories that are painful or damaging to our self-esteem

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@hannah_bo_banna judging the likelihood of success for creative pieces is essentially what I’m paid to do

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@hannah_bo_banna I am supposed to be good at it

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@hannah_bo_banna it would be damaging to my self-esteem to recall instances where I was wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna so it’s conceivable that I would suppress memories like that

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@hannah_bo_banna or reconstruct, or reassemble my memory…

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@hannah_bo_banna to create a version of history where I always thought this campaign was a great idea

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{insert your own expletive here}

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@hannah_bo_banna so I figured I ought to find out how good or otherwise I really am at predicting this stuff

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@hannah_bo_banna so at the beginning of this year I resolved to make a prediction about how each piece would perform

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@hannah_bo_banna how did I do this?

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@hannah_bo_banna this stuff isn’t strictly binary

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@hannah_bo_banna so I created a scale:

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points A 10,000+ B 5,000 to 9,999 C 2,000 to 4,999 D 1,000 – 1,999 E less than 1,000

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@hannah_bo_banna huh?

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this is how we measure the ‘value’ of a link https://www.vervesearch.com/linkscore/

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@hannah_bo_banna scores range from 0-500 points

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@hannah_bo_banna scores are calculated based on a range of factors including: site authority, language, follow vs nofollow & more

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@hannah_bo_banna here are a few examples of scores…

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this link on the Guardian scores 456 points

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this link on Fast Company scores 284 points

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this link on the Independent is nofollow so it scores 42 points

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@hannah_bo_banna to help you understand what this looks like in terms of numbers of links

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points Equivalent number of links A 10,000+ more than 100 B 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 C 2,000 to 4,999 20-49 D 1,000 – 1,999 10-19 E less than 1,000 less than 10 this is just an indicator – an average link is not 100 points

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@hannah_bo_banna so I began to make predictions about all of our campaigns ahead of launch

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@hannah_bo_banna wait… how do you make predictions like this?

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@hannah_bo_banna I consider 3 things:

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@hannah_bo_banna resonance

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@hannah_bo_banna resonance noun the power to evoke emotion

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@hannah_bo_banna initially I might consider this at a topic level

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35x articles are written about AI vs RPA & these articles get 8x more engagement

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@hannah_bo_banna but it’s really important to think about this at a human level too

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@hannah_bo_banna how many people are likely to care about this?

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@hannah_bo_banna how many people are likely to be touched in some way by this?

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@hannah_bo_banna more on resonance here: bit.ly/feels-2016 & bit.ly/time-machine-2016

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@hannah_bo_banna breadth of appeal

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@hannah_bo_banna how many publications are likely to cover this?

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@hannah_bo_banna can we sell it in to different verticals?

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@hannah_bo_banna different countries?

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@hannah_bo_banna can we use the piece to tell a variety of stories?

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@hannah_bo_banna past experience

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@hannah_bo_banna how have I seen similar pieces perform before?

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@hannah_bo_banna so…

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@hannah_bo_banna in January I began to make predictions about all of our campaigns ahead of launch

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@hannah_bo_banna fast forward around 8 months

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@hannah_bo_banna & I’m pitching this talk to Will…

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@hannah_bo_banna how good are your predictions?

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@hannah_bo_banna back then I had not yet checked my own numbers

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@hannah_bo_banna & this rather lovely quote would prove to be more true than I’d have liked …

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@hannah_bo_banna “she who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass…” ~Edgar R. Fiedler, The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting: Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent, 1977

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@hannah_bo_banna ok, let’s do this…

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@hannah_bo_banna this talk is in 3 parts: - how good am I at predicting the future accurately? - what seems to affect my judgement? - what do I think I’ve learned?

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@hannah_bo_banna how good am I at predicting the future accurately?

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@hannah_bo_banna really not very good L

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points Equivalent number of links A 10,000+ more than 100 B 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 C 2,000 to 4,999 20-49 D 1,000 – 1,999 10-19 E less than 1,000 less than 10 as a reminder – these are the scoring bands – I predict a band for each campaign

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@hannah_bo_banna how did I do?

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@hannah_bo_banna I correctly predicted the LinkScore band for just 47% of campaigns

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@hannah_bo_banna which means I am wrong more often than I am right

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{insert your own expletive here}

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@hannah_bo_banna ok, so I’m wrong a lot… but how wrong?

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@hannah_bo_banna how often am I a bit wrong?

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points Equivalent number of links A 10,000+ more than 100 B 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 C 2,000 to 4,999 20-49 D 1,000 – 1,999 10-19 E less than 1,000 less than 10 a bit wrong = wrong by one scoring band

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@hannah_bo_banna for around 33% of campaigns my prediction was out by one scoring band

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@hannah_bo_banna here are some examples of where I was a bit wrong

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we created this for GoCompare Travel Insurance, to highlight a variety of languages which are in danger of extinction

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I thought this campaign would do better than it actually did… Prediction: band B (5,000-9,999 points) Actual: band C (4,957 points & 48 links) Prediction: B Actual: C

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we created this for IG Index, it compares the salaries of various world leaders to GDP, population & average earnings

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Prediction: C Actual: B I thought this campaign would do worse than it actually did… Prediction: band C (2,000-4,999 points) Actual: band B (8,844 points & 74 links)

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@hannah_bo_banna & how often am I very wrong?

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points Equivalent number of links A 10,000+ more than 100 B 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 C 2,000 to 4,999 20-49 D 1,000 – 1,999 10-19 E less than 1,000 less than 10 very wrong = wrong by two or more scoring bands

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@hannah_bo_banna for around 20% of campaigns my prediction was out by two or more scoring bands

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@hannah_bo_banna quick recap?

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47% 33% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna dear reader, this does not make me feel good

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@hannah_bo_banna I’ve been doing this stuff for close to ten years now

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@hannah_bo_banna I really feel like I ought to be more right than this

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47% 33% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna eeek, let’s move on

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@hannah_bo_banna how good am I at predicting a winner?

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@hannah_bo_banna Scoring Band LinkScore points Equivalent number of links A 10,000+ more than 100 B 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 this is just an indicator – an average link is not 100 points

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@hannah_bo_banna actually I did a bit better here J

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@hannah_bo_banna I correctly predicted the LinkScore band for 75% of these campaigns

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@hannah_bo_banna which means I am right more often than I am wrong J

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@hannah_bo_banna but for the remaining 25% I wasn’t a bit wrong, I was very wrong* (*very wrong means I was out by two or more scoring bands)

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@hannah_bo_banna so I was very wrong about one in four of our best performing campaigns

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75% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Best Performing Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna quick recap?

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Best Performing All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna I am simultaneously more right AND more wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna I thought you might be interested to see one of the campaigns I was very wrong about

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we created this for GoCompare, using 20 years of IMDb data, we calculated the most filmed locations on the planet

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I predicted less than 1,000 points; the campaign actually generated over 29,000 points (392 links) Prediction: E Actual: A

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@hannah_bo_banna so what was my problem?

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@hannah_bo_banna remember I said I consider 3 things when making predictions? (I’ll look at each in turn)

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@hannah_bo_banna resonance

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@hannah_bo_banna have you ever wondered what the most filmed locations on earth are?

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@hannah_bo_banna hmmmm

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as a topic I guess it’s somewhat resonant…

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@hannah_bo_banna In short, I’m not 100% sold

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@hannah_bo_banna but I thought we had a bigger problem

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@hannah_bo_banna breadth of appeal

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I didn’t feel that the results were surprising, and, as such, I felt that the piece would have limited appeal

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@hannah_bo_banna past experience

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@hannah_bo_banna but I think it some pretty lazy thinking about past experiences that really led me awry

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I didn’t feel that the results were surprising, and, as such, I felt that the piece would have limited appeal

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I think I was hoping for a result like this…

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or maybe this…

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I was so concerned about this, that when we reviewed the data I suggested we drop the campaign

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the client wasn’t convinced about this one either…

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@hannah_bo_banna so what’s going on here?

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@hannah_bo_banna when you create a lot of pieces (& we really do)

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@hannah_bo_banna you start to come up with a sort of shorthand

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@hannah_bo_banna which can be either helpful or harmful depending on how lazy your thinking is

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in my head, this was ‘Director’s Cut’ for filming locations

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@hannah_bo_banna & perhaps you can kind of see where I was going with that

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@hannah_bo_banna but actually, the piece is closer to this

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this tells you exactly what you would expect…

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@hannah_bo_banna but it’s compelling nevertheless, because we’ve proved it to be true

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this piece is not ‘Director’s Cut’ for filming locations it’s closer to ‘Unicorn League’ for filming locations

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the results aren’t surprising… but journalists covered it because we’ve proved it

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@hannah_bo_banna but that wasn’t the only direction I was wrong in…

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@hannah_bo_banna the piece had huge breadth of appeal (which somehow I just missed)

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topical angles…

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niche angles…

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@hannah_bo_banna & many, many local angles

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m very glad my team talked me round J

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29,611 points (392 links) we’ve generated coverage from this piece, every single month, for the past nine months…

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@hannah_bo_banna so we’ve seen that lazy thinking, or shorthand like ‘Director’s Cut’ for film locations affects my judgement

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@hannah_bo_banna & I wondered what else might affect it

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@hannah_bo_banna if the campaign is my idea how accurate are my predictions?

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@hannah_bo_banna when something is your idea, there’s a danger of falling in love with it

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@hannah_bo_banna so I wondered if maybe my predictions for my own ideas were wildly optimistic

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@hannah_bo_banna but actually…

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@hannah_bo_banna my predictions for my own campaign ideas were 78% accurate

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@hannah_bo_banna & where I was wrong, it was only by one scoring band

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@hannah_bo_banna LinkScore points Equivalent number of links 10,000+ more than 100 5,000 to 9,999 50-99 2,000 to 4,999 20-49 1,000 – 1,999 10-19 less than 1,000 less than 10 this is just an indicator – an average link is not 100 points

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@hannah_bo_banna my predictions about my own ideas are the most accurate

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% My Ideas Best Performing All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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this really surprised me

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@hannah_bo_banna I then wondered if whether or not I ‘loved’ the idea had an impact on my predictions

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@hannah_bo_banna I recognise this might be tricky to parse

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@hannah_bo_banna I make predictions based on how well I think each campaign will do

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@hannah_bo_banna high prediction ≠ love

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@hannah_bo_banna here’s an example:

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this piece reveals the most congested roads across the UK

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Prediction: A

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@hannah_bo_banna how did I come up with this?

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@hannah_bo_banna motoring journalists can be tough to pitch…

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@hannah_bo_banna unless it’s got an engine, wheels, & goes vroom, frequently, they’re not interested

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@hannah_bo_banna but there are some exceptions:

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@hannah_bo_banna this is a resonant topic because pretty much everyone gets annoyed about being stuck in traffic

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@hannah_bo_banna it has reasonable breadth of appeal because we can go to both UK nationals & regionals

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@hannah_bo_banna & I feel confident because I’ve seen other similar stuff do well before

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Prediction: A Love it? Nope Actual: band A (over 16,000 points & 317 links)

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@hannah_bo_banna if I ‘love’ the idea, does it impact my predictions?

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@hannah_bo_banna it really does

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@hannah_bo_banna if I love the idea my predictions are only accurate 36% of the time

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@hannah_bo_banna also, if I love the idea my predictions are always high as opposed to low

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Love My Ideas Best Performing All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna what if I don’t love the idea?

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@hannah_bo_banna If I don’t love the idea my predictions are accurate 71% of the time (& when I’m wrong I’m only a bit wrong)

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Don't Love Love My Ideas Best Performing All Campaigns Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna what do I think is going on here?

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m pretty good at making accurate predictions for my own ideas & ideas I don’t love

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Don't Love My Ideas Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna but I’m pretty terrible at making accurate predictions for ideas I love

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Love Don't Love My Ideas Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna apparently I don’t fall in love with my own ideas, but I do fall in love with other peoples

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@hannah_bo_banna what else did I learn?

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@hannah_bo_banna I may not be predicting the future

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m concerned I might actually be affecting it

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the campaign generated 9,790 points (200 links) Prediction: B Actual: B

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@hannah_bo_banna but that’s not the whole story

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 April May Demolishing Modernism – Cumulative Points by Month

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 April May June Demolishing Modernism – Cumulative Points by Month

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 April May June July August Demolishing Modernism – Cumulative Points by Month

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@hannah_bo_banna I don’t think I did this deliberately (in order to make my predictions correct)

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@hannah_bo_banna but clearly my own belief or bias affected the outcome here

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@hannah_bo_banna what if my prediction was different?

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I predicted 5,000 – 9,999 points; but what if I’d have predicted 1,000 – 1,999 points? Prediction: D? Actual: D?

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 April May Demolishing Modernism – Cumulative Points by Month would I have been ok with stopping here?

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 April May June July August Demolishing Modernism – Cumulative Points by Month we never would have got here…

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@hannah_bo_banna I deliberately did not share my predictions with my team

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@hannah_bo_banna they didn’t even know I was making predictions (they do now)

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@hannah_bo_banna but I wonder if I have been unconsciously influencing them nevertheless

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{insert your own expletive here}

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@hannah_bo_banna ok, let’s wrap this thing up…

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@hannah_bo_banna I’d like to leave you with a few thoughts

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@hannah_bo_banna #1

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@hannah_bo_banna start recording your own predictions now

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@hannah_bo_banna actually record them

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@hannah_bo_banna when I came to run the numbers on my own predictions I was shocked by some of the numbers I’d written down

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I was certain I had scored this & many other creative campaigns higher

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@hannah_bo_banna your memory is unreliable

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@hannah_bo_banna each time we remember something, we reconstruct the event

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@hannah_bo_banna we reassemble it

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@hannah_bo_banna & we suppress memories that are painful or damaging to our self-esteem

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@hannah_bo_banna as such…

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@hannah_bo_banna your judgement might be considerably worse than you think it is

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@hannah_bo_banna this is actually a really powerful thing to learn

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@hannah_bo_banna over time if you can recognise the situations in which your judgements are bad

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@hannah_bo_banna you might be able to adapt & make better decisions

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@hannah_bo_banna it is really good for me to know that:

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m pretty good at spotting a ‘great’ campaign

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75% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Best Performing Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m pretty good at making accurate predictions for my own ideas & ideas I don’t love

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Don't Love My Ideas Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna & it’s really important that I know that…

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@hannah_bo_banna I’m pretty terrible at making accurate predictions for ideas I love

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Love Don't Love My Ideas Correct A Bit Wrong Very Wrong

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@hannah_bo_banna I don’t fall in love with my own ideas, but I do fall in love with other peoples

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@hannah_bo_banna if you do decide to make predictions like this, exercise a little caution…

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@hannah_bo_banna you might not be predicting the future

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@hannah_bo_banna you might actually be affecting it

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@hannah_bo_banna your own belief or bias may affect the outcome (which might be good, or really, really, really bad)

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I predicted 5,000 – 9,999 points; but what if I’d have predicted 1,000 – 1,999 points? Prediction: D? Actual: D?

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@hannah_bo_banna ultimately…

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@hannah_bo_banna getting things right, is more important than being right

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@hannah_bo_banna give people the opportunity to try stuff out

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@hannah_bo_banna even if you’re not convinced that stuff will work

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@hannah_bo_banna firstly because if things do go wrong people will actually learn something

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@hannah_bo_banna if you’re not allowed to make mistakes, you can’t learn anything

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@hannah_bo_banna but mainly because…

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@hannah_bo_banna you know a lot less than you think

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@hannah_bo_banna looking back…

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@hannah_bo_banna there have been countless times members of my team have tried things I was *certain* would not work

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@hannah_bo_banna but I let them try out those things anyway

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@hannah_bo_banna & you know what?

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@hannah_bo_banna stopping them from trying those things would have been a massive error

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@hannah_bo_banna because a whole bunch of those things worked out just great

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good luck out there x

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@hannah_bo_banna Hannah Smith Head of Creative Verve Search send questions and/or pictures of cats to: hannah@vervesearch.com tweet things @hannah_bo_banna

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@hannah_bo_banna Big love to the team at Verve who helped me put this together J Images: fortune: http://askbobarcana.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-golden-wheel-fortune-teller.html money: http://fortune.com/2017/01/19/scent-of-money/ good: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHT5KNoWjzY lego: https://www.looper.com/40131/trolls-director-reassemble-lego-movie-sequel/ jesus titty christ: http://www.sickchirpse.com/illusions-that-will-blow-your-mind/ calvin & hobbes: http://inverseintuition.org/phi_2010/areas/cavecliff.html danbo - https://www.flickr.com/photos/nomadic_lass/6889892777/in/set-72157629144987013 unicorn - http://queenofheartsonthesleeve.tumblr.com/post/58736423727/ok-not-much-but-here-it-is-3 Credits