InterSystems Global Summit - Mobile Challenges and Opportunities

Slide 1

Slide 1 text

Mobile Opportunities and Challenges Jason Grigsby • @grigs jason@cloudfour.com • cloudfour.com http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jphilipson/2100627902/

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

Follow along @grigs_talks bit.ly/20-mar-2012 After event: @grigs http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/stevegarﬁeld/4247757731/

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

Got email from this guy... http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

Mobile is Disruptive Technology http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/talkephotography/4523849236/ Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers (MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~39MM netbooks have shipped in first eight quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 9 Quarters After Launch Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~57MM ~25MM ~7MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~11MM 26 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

http://www.opera.com/smw/ 20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100 000 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total page views (Opera Mini) Data transfer (Opera Mini) Last month we had 52 billion page views. That is Reddit, times 52. Last month Opera Mini transferred 804 million megabytes of data. That is approx. 10 times the amount of data found in the online collection of the U.S. Library of Congress. January 2011: 90.368.678 + 15 million using Opera Mobile Unique Opera Mini users Graphic: Tom Byermoen // Opera Software Opera Mini is available for more than 3000 different mobile phone models

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

5.9 Billion Mobile phone for nearly everyone on the planet. Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

Technology Cycles - Wealth Creation / Destruction New Companies Often Win Big in New Cycles While Incumbents Often Falter Mainframe Computing 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners New Winners New Winners New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: FactSet, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Yahoo! Japan Amazon.com Tencent Alibaba Baidu Rakuten Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs 16 Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/76074333@N00/317952268/ | http://futuristmovie.com Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

No content

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

No content

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

No content

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

No content

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

No content

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

No content

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

ME NEED IPHONE APP. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

2008 We must have an iPhone App!

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

2009 We must have an Android App!

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

2010 We must have an iPad App!

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

2011 We must have a...

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

No content

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

No content

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Upcoming Zombie Apocalypse of Devices

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

More devices every day

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Short Run Problem is Mobile Phones

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

Long Run Problem Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML NATIVE NATIVE NATIVE

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

Flickr photo by .Hessam: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/essamo/1070527547/ Fragmentation: This is what the web is supposed to solve.

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

No content

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

No content

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

Find a single report that doesn’t show exponential growth for mobile web. CHALLENGE:

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

No content

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

No content

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

No content

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

3% 2% 12% 18% 22% 43% Android Symbian iPhone Blackberry Bada Windows/Others Q2 2011 Smartphone Market Share (Gartner) Phones currently shipping WebKit in blue (97%). WebKit & HTML5: Dominant Mobile Platform By contrast, 10 smartphone operating systems.

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/hi-phi/54828371 Native vs Web

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit Advertise Here Advertise Here Column Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESET Hyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2 Does your company send email to customers? http://www.email-gallery.com

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

Does your company participate in social media? http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/intersectionconsulting/5177773774/

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

Links don’t open apps http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mattimattila/4001221570/

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

No content

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

Why are we ﬁghting? http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jeff-bauche/2230236391/sizes/o/

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

No content

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

Major Brands Using Combo of Web and Native

Slide 43

Slide 43 text

Even Apple uses embedded webviews

Slide 44

Slide 44 text

No content

Slide 45

Slide 45 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only

Slide 46

Slide 46 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only Why?

Slide 47

Slide 47 text

How do you deliver the right HTML, CSS and JavaScript to browsers?

Slide 48

Slide 48 text

No content

Slide 49

Slide 49 text

No content

Slide 50

Slide 50 text

No content

Slide 51

Slide 51 text

No content

Slide 52

Slide 52 text

Original Resized K Saved % Saved Holmes 34.7K 8.1K 26.6K 76.6% Watson 39.0K 8.4K 30.6K 78.4% Mycroft 30.5K 6.7K 23.8K 78.0% Moriarty 43.4K 8.2K 35.2K 81.1% Adler 26.0K 6.6K 19.4K 74.6% Winter 34.7K 7.8K 26.9K 77.5% Total 208.3K 45.8K 162.5K 78.0% Media Queries Hide Problems

Slide 53

Slide 53 text

Device Detection

Slide 54

Slide 54 text

“Browser sniffing is a stupid, error-prone and reviled practice, ‘backed’ by a decade of failures.” http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/doug88888/4550561194/

Slide 55

Slide 55 text

“User agent sniffing must die. Nice job advocating this bad practice.” http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/kayepants/391645870/

Slide 56

Slide 56 text

None of the techniques are ideal. Choose based on your requirements and your audience.

Slide 57

Slide 57 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only

Slide 58

Slide 58 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/ 21% of Google’s largest advertisers have mobile web sites. Only Why?

Slide 59

Slide 59 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2391631937/in/photostream/ BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB: Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes

Slide 60

Slide 60 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/ionan/103646126/ Multiple Systems Taped Together

Slide 61

Slide 61 text

Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/salendron/5569020488/

Slide 62

Slide 62 text

Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/

Slide 63

Slide 63 text

Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML

Slide 64

Slide 64 text

Content & Services Car sketch: http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/ HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML HTML NATIVE NATIVE NATIVE

Slide 65

Slide 65 text

Features of New Platforms Integrated image resizing Video conversion and resizing Separation of content from markup so content can be used in native apps Prioritization of content based on context Full-featured APIs Synchronization New Ways to Enable Content Editors http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/expressmonorail/3046970004/sizes/l/

Slide 66

Slide 66 text

What does WYSIWYG mean to multiple devices? WYSIWTF http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/ndm007/171398958/

Slide 67

Slide 67 text

No content

Slide 68

Slide 68 text

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/10/13/cope-create-once-publish-everywhere/

Slide 69

Slide 69 text

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/11/11/content-portability-building-an-api-is-not-enough/

Slide 70

Slide 70 text

No content

Slide 71

Slide 71 text

No content

Slide 72

Slide 72 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/ photos/andresthor/ 3963368371/

Slide 73

Slide 73 text

Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] One Possible Bridging Solution

Slide 74

Slide 74 text

Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile One Possible Bridging Solution

Slide 75

Slide 75 text

Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] One Possible Bridging Solution

Slide 76

Slide 76 text

Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Cloud Four Mobile Web Server Device Class Template A Device Class Template B Device Class Template C Device Class Template D Internet One Possible Bridging Solution

Slide 77

Slide 77 text

Slide 78

Slide 78 text

Slide 79

Slide 79 text

Desktop Web Server Internet example.com/products/[productID] Desktop or Mobile Desktop Web Page Desktop Redirect Mobile m.example.com/ products/[productID] Web Services APIs One Possible Bridging Solution Mobile Web Server w/ RWD Platform Internet APIs Necessary to Support App Development

Slide 80

Slide 80 text

No content

Slide 81

Slide 81 text

You’re in a better spot than most.

Slide 82

Slide 82 text

Slide 83

Slide 83 text

No matter how you look at it, we have a lot of infrastructure to build http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/wwworks/2942950081/

Slide 84

Slide 84 text

thank you. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/24311566@N07/4697623122/

Slide 85

Slide 85 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/ photos/troyholden/ 5544097948/

Slide 86

Slide 86 text

No content

Slide 87

Slide 87 text

No content

Slide 88

Slide 88 text

Not easy, but this is where the opportunities are. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/donnagrayson/195244498/in/photostream/

Slide 89

Slide 89 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/eole/3215868087/

Slide 90

Slide 90 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/matupplevelser/4643768831/ Expectations of apps are rising.

Slide 91

Slide 91 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/quinnanya/4599750124/ Mobile doesn’t mean taking things away.

Slide 92

Slide 92 text

How Do I Add an RSS Feed to My RSS Reader? Don’t Skip Core Functionality

Slide 93

Slide 93 text

1024 x 768: Still No Way to Add RSS

Slide 94

Slide 94 text

But if there’s one thing I’ve learned in observing people on their mobile devices, it’s that they’ll do anything on mobile if they have the need. Write long emails? Check. Manage complex sets of information? Check. And the list goes on. If people want to do it, they’ll do it on mobile - especially when it’s their only or most convenient option. —Luke Wroblewski lukew.com/ﬀ/entry.asp?1333 http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/emmacox/6095336904/

Slide 95

Slide 95 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/brunauto/5062644167/ Our vision of mobile context is often wrong.

Slide 96

Slide 96 text

80% during misc downtime 76% while waiting in lines 62% while watching TV 69% for point of sale research http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/missmeng/5327470961

Slide 97

Slide 97 text

TMI: 39% use phone on the toilet.

Slide 98

Slide 98 text

Yes, we can’t know the mobile context. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/timcaynes/158599960/

Slide 99

Slide 99 text

But that doesn’t mean mobile isn’t unique and powerful. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/sparktography/2485147794/

Slide 100

Slide 100 text

Mobile as the 7th Mass Media?

Slide 101

Slide 101 text

1. Printing press http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/buschap/3917984966/

Slide 102

Slide 102 text

2. Recordings http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/taviona/278461610/

Slide 103

Slide 103 text

3. Cinema http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/m4tik/4687194723/

Slide 104

Slide 104 text

4. Radio http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/

Slide 105

Slide 105 text

5. Television http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/

Slide 106

Slide 106 text

6. Internet http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/

Slide 107

Slide 107 text

7. Mobile http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/djwudi/382030798/

Slide 108

Slide 108 text

Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/pedestriantype/4789244416/

Slide 109

Slide 109 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/fchouse/2829381653/ 1. PERSONAL 63% do not share phone

Slide 110

Slide 110 text

2. PERMANENTLY CARRIED ~50% of US admit to sleeping with phone http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/kk/3615287378/

Slide 111

Slide 111 text

3. ALWAYS ON http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/gilderic/3517477267/

Slide 112

Slide 112 text

4. BUILT-IN PAYMENT CHANNEL

Slide 113

Slide 113 text

5. CREATIVE IMPULSE http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/d_a_v_i_d_m_/246298437/

Slide 114

Slide 114 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/memotions/259656126/ 6. ACCURATE MEASUREMENT

Slide 115

Slide 115 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/mythoto/1234638761/ 7. SOCIAL CONTEXT

Slide 116

Slide 116 text

8. AUGMENTED REALITY http://issuu.com/mkparsley/docs/ikea

Slide 117

Slide 117 text

Mobile is the most borg-like technology we’ve ever seen

Slide 118

Slide 118 text

Inspiring http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/asphericlens/5661878892/

Slide 119

Slide 119 text

“When a new medium borrows from an existing one, some of what it borrows makes sense, but much of the borrowing is thoughtless, ‘ritual’, and often constrains the new medium. Over time, the new medium develops its own conventions, throwing oﬀ existing conventions that don’t make sense.” —John Allsopp, Dao of Web Design

Slide 120

Slide 120 text

What are we borrowing from the previous medium—the PC Internet—that doesn’t make sense for mobile?

Slide 121

Slide 121 text

“ e history of mobile phones has been a long slow process of copying what works on the desktop and then sheepishly realizing that it just doesn’t quite work right.” —Scott Jenson

Slide 122

Slide 122 text

320 px Too much focus on the smaller screen.

Slide 123

Slide 123 text

Why do we need to look at our phones to get directions? One vibration for left. Two for right. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/williamhook/4225307113

Slide 124

Slide 124 text

Old saying in mobile: Asia is two years ahead… http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/romainguy/3673700251/

Slide 125

Slide 125 text

of Europe which is two years ahead… http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/djou/2079730487

Slide 126

Slide 126 text

of the United States. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/davearquati/459024208/

Slide 127

Slide 127 text

No content

Slide 128

Slide 128 text

“My impression is that there was no computers anymore. Only tablets and phones.” “Some Apple devices, but not that much. Most of the smartphones are Samsung and HTC phones (no surprise here), but also a *lot* of feature phones and not-that-smart-phones (old smart phones). ”

Slide 129

Slide 129 text

It’s fairly certain that the highest-value use will stay predominantly on desktop. —Jakob Nielsen http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/dplanet/82899080/

Slide 130

Slide 130 text

Most complex tasks have vastly better user experience on the desktop and thus will be performed there. I'm talking anything from researching your next car purchase to learning about a new medical condition (and its associated pharmaceuticals) to managing your investment portfolio. Yes, you might enter a stock trade with your broker's mobile app, but you'll research new mutual funds on the desktop. —Jakob Nielsen

Slide 131

Slide 131 text

No content

Slide 132

Slide 132 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/acaben/541334636/ e Post-PC Era Didn’t Start with the iPad

Slide 133

Slide 133 text

It started in Asia with mobile phones and spread to developing countries. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/3914923307

Slide 134

Slide 134 text

Africa has more in common with Asia than Asia does with the United States. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/ict4d/3068105816/

Slide 135

Slide 135 text

slideshare.net/CMSummit/ms-internet-trends060710final

Slide 136

Slide 136 text

nytimes.com/2011/04/18/technology/18mobile.html anks Steve Souders!

Slide 137

Slide 137 text

nytimes.com/2011/04/18/technology/18mobile.html anks Steve Souders!

Slide 138

Slide 138 text

20% of Kenya’s GDP sent through mobile banking. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/kiwanja/3169447879

Slide 139

Slide 139 text

Mobile is the most important technology since the printing press. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/rhadley/3527304106/

Slide 140

Slide 140 text

UN urging more mobile for developing countries.

Slide 141

Slide 141 text

A 2005 London Business School study found that for every additional 10 mobile phones per 100 people in a developing country, GDP rises by 0.5%. http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/jul/24/mobile-phones-africa-micro nance-farming

Slide 142

Slide 142 text

Saﬀron uprising

Slide 143

Slide 143 text

Cellscope puts microscopes in remote areas.

Slide 144

Slide 144 text

According to California-based mobile-banking innovator Carol Realini, executive chairman of Obopay: “Africa is the Silicon Valley of banking. e future of banking is being de ned here… It’s going to change the world.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/jul/24/mobile-phones-africa-micro nance-farming

Slide 145

Slide 145 text

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/whiteafrican/2888960873

Slide 146

Slide 146 text

And really, is the United States that diﬀerent? Or is the story simply not being told? http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats#mobile-only

Slide 147

Slide 147 text

Understanding mobile as the primary and sometimes only device… http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/e4a-2030/5106562313

Slide 148

Slide 148 text

is diﬃcult when we spend so much time on our PCs. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/goobi/4021009835/

Slide 149

Slide 149 text

Word Lens

Slide 150

Slide 150 text

A9 Flow Powered by Amazon

Slide 151

Slide 151 text

Polar Rose. Bought by Apple.

Slide 152

Slide 152 text

No content

Slide 153

Slide 153 text

No content

Slide 154

Slide 154 text

27 • Location detection: GPS, WiFi, cell towers • Orientation: direction from a digital compass • Device positioning & motion: from an accelerometer • Audio: input from a microphone; output to speaker • Video & image: capture/input from a camera • Device connections: through Bluetooth between devices • Proximity: device closeness to physical objects • Ambient Light: light/dark environment awareness • RFID reader: identify & track objects with broadcasted identifiers • Multi-touch sensors • Haptic feedback: “feel” different surfaces on a screen • Biometrics: retinal, fingerprint, etc. • Push: real-time notifications “instant” to user Sensor Capabilities We’re just scratching the surface of what these sensors can do. Highly recommend Luke Wroblewski’s First Person User Experience Presentation at http://www.lukew.com/presos/preso.asp?21

Slide 155

Slide 155 text

We look at mobile as a small screen version of the our computers… http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/bendodson/3367856091

Slide 156

Slide 156 text

when we should be looking at mobile as so much more. http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/whiteafrican/3401121885

Slide 157

Slide 157 text

BIG THINK

Slide 158

Slide 158 text

Jason Grigsby • @grigs • cloudfour.com Slides: bit.ly/20-mar-2012

Slide 159

Slide 159 text

Get 40% oﬀ of the print and 50% oﬀ of ebook version using code AUTHD at oreilly.com. OR Amazon link (no code): http://bit.ly/hf-mw

Slide 160

Slide 160 text

Jason Grigsby • @grigs • cloudfour.com Slides: bit.ly/20-mar-2012