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Mike Pearce How big is it?

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Mike Pearce How big is it?

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#bestTalkEver

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Introduction

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@mikepearce /mikepearce.net [email protected] /in/mikeypearce

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What is estimating? The art of estimating Planning What it really means

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Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea.

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What is estimating? Estimation problems Planning What is estimating?

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"Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." Wikipedia "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1

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Guessing?

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Wikipedia [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. [A Guestimate] is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture. by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1

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What is estimating? Estimation problems Planning What it really means The art of estimating

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The lone ranger

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Delphi Method

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Wideband Delphi

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Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. Unluckily all these positive assertions are contrary to that very experience, which is pleaded for them, nor have we any idea of self, after the manner it is here explain’d. For from what impression cou’d this idea be deriv’d? This question ’tis impossible to answer without a manifest contradiction and absurdity; and yet ’tis a question, which must necessarily be answer’d, if we wou’d have the idea of self pass for clear and intelligible. It must be some one impression, that gives rise to every real idea. But self or person is not any one impression, but that to which our several impressions and ideas are suppos’d to have a reference. If any impression gives rise to the idea of self, that impression must continue invariably the same, thro’ the whole course of our lives; since self is suppos’d to exist after that manner. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. But there is no impression constant and invariable. Pain and pleasure, grief and joy, passions and sensations succeed each other, and never all exist at the same time. It cannot, therefore, be from any of these impressions, or from any other, that the idea of self is deriv’d; and consequently there is no such idea. 263

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Is there a best way to estimate?

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“Ideal Time”

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By slworking2 - http://flic.kr/p/cvY16A

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We suck at Temporal Estimation

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Vierordt’s Law (1968): Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated. Vierordt’s Law (1868): Retrospectively, "short" intervals of time tend to be overestimated, and "long" intervals of time tend to be underestimated. 1818 - 1884

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(Buehler & Griffin, 2003; Buehler, Griffin, & MacDonald, 1997; Buehler, Griffin, & Ross, 1994; Bueh­ ler, Messervey, & Griffin, 2005; Byram, 1997; Connolly & Dean, 1997; Francis­ Smythe & Robertson, 1999; Grif­ fin & Buehler, 1999; Jorgensen & Sjoberg, 2001; Josephs & Hahn, 1995; Koneçni & Ebbesen, 1976; König, 2005; Koole & Van’t Spijker, 2000; Kruger & Evans, 2004; Molokken­Ostvold & Jorgensen, 2005; Newby­Clark, Ross, Buehler, Koehler, & Griffin, 2000; Taylor, Pham, Rivkin, & Armor, 1998)

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Sounds bad, what’s the solution?

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RAE’s

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Time? Effort? Anything? NO

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Relative, arbitrary estimates

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Fibonacci

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Fibonacci 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55 ...

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Modified Fibonacci 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?

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Story Points 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?

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0 1 2 3 5 8 13 20 40 100 =3 (or, as big as a 1 and 2) Bigger than a 1, a 2 AND a 3 Too big

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Let’s build a thing with Audience Participation!

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3 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Gut feel for sprint 1 Priority order

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Pop Quiz Hotshot!

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Cone of uncertainty

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4x 1x 0.25x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x Time Estimate variability Cone of uncertainty

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Begin sprint 1

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Velocity = 13

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5 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Sprint 1 successful Priority order Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Sprint 6 Velocity: 13

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Begin sprint 2

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Velocity = 15

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5 8 13 8 2 1 3 8 5 8 1 5 Sprint 1 successful Priority order Sprint 2 successful Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Sprint 5 Velocity: 13 Velocity: 15

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4x 1x 0.25x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x Time Estimate variability Cone of uncertainty Sprint 2

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And that’s all there is to arbitrary, relative estimates... Simple, right?

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Also...

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Tshirt sizes XS, S, M, L, XL

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Cycle Time How long does it take for one story to get from here to here. To do In Progress Testing Done In 12 days, we will be here s m m s s

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Similar sized stories

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In the real world

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Planning poker

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Tips Do not do overtime No anchoring Make assumptions explicit Build in slack

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What if we don’t know?

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Spike

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We got it wrong ;(

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The law of large numbers

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You’re using them for what?!

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Estimate != Quote By Dan’s Photos = http://flic.kr/p/NPEcM

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Wikipedia "Estimation is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be incomplete, uncertain, or unstable." by ~jjjohn~ - http://flic.kr/p/4CYJT1

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By Stéfan - http://flic.kr/p/7oYXjh

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Re-estimating

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4x 1x 0.25x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x Time Estimate variability Cone of uncertainty Sprint x

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Oh crap, we forgot...

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Documentation (5%) Dependencies Env/platform setup Non-spike research Overheads

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What is estimating? Estimation problems Planning What it really means Planning

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Vision Road Map Release Planning

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sarahG - http://flic.kr/p/5iykd4 Name your project

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leadfoot36 - http://flic.kr/p/532uc7 Review velocity and iteration schedule

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jayneandd - http://flic.kr/p/7MhBfD Review your definition of done

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LAC/BAC - http://flic.kr/p/88qSVk Review your stories

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ognjen.odobasic- http://flic.kr/p/7Dy6qc Itinerant Tightwad - http://flic.kr/p/6Cun3D Scope or date release?

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LaserGuided - http://flic.kr/p/639Ke Review architecture and technology

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p_a_h - http://flic.kr/p/8nzn6R Allocate stories to sprints

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Discuss problems, issues and assumptions

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Why do this?

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TGV - http://flic.kr/p/2Q1sC1

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publicenergyhttp://flic.kr/p/dxeYi

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dimodi - http://flic.kr/p/8wNsoS

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Anticipation Adaptation frankenstoen - http://flic.kr/p/6o7wc2

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Vision Road Map Release Planning Sprint Planning

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I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 As a ... 3

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Vision Road Map Release Planning Sprint Planning Standup

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How do I start a project?

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With this guy By huangjiahui - http://flic.kr/p/5pE12U White Elephant Sizing

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1 2 3 8 13 20 ? 5 As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... 5 1 3 2 5 13 3 2 8 Total story points: 300

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As a ... I need ... So that ... 3 As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 ENOUGH! Estimated Velocity: 13

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CAVEAT LECTOR

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I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 1 4 9 3 1 6 2 7 4 6 6 Total Hours For Sprint 1: 144 As a ... 3 7 4 4 2

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Hours Range Tim Bob Bex Max Min Range 6 7 60-70 3 5 30-50 4 5 40-50 Hours per sprint 130-170

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MATHS FUN Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints 300 / 13 = 23

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1 2 3 8 13 20 ? 5 As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... 5 1 3 2 5 13 3 2 8 Total story points: 300

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As a ... I need ... So that ... 3 As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 ENOUGH! Estimated Velocity: 13

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MATHS FUN Estimated No. Sprints x Estimated hours for sprint 1 = Total Hours For Project 23 x 144 = 3312 Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints 300 / 13 = 23

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I need ... So that ... As a ... I need ... So that ... 2 As a ... I need ... So that ... 8 1 4 9 3 1 6 2 7 4 6 6 As a ... 3 7 4 4 2 Total Hours For Sprint 1: 144

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MATHS FUN Estimated No. Sprints x Estimated hours for sprint 1 = Total Hours For Project 23 x 144 = 3312 Total Hours For Project / Min Sprint Hours = Minimum Number of Sprints 3312 / 130 = 25 sprints Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints 300 / 13 = 23

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Hours Range Tim Bob Bex Max Min Range 6 7 60-70 3 5 30-50 4 5 40-50 Hours per sprint 130-170

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MATHS FUN Estimated No. Sprints x Estimated hours for sprint 1 = Total Hours For Project 23 x 144 = 3312 Total Hours For Project / Min Sprint Hours = Minimum Number of Sprints 3312 / 130 = 25 sprints Total Hours For Project / Max Sprint Hours = Maximum Number of Sprints 3312 / 170 = 19 sprints Total story points / Estimated Velocity = Estimated No. Sprints 300 / 13 = 23

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Hours Range Tim Bob Bex Max Min Range 6 7 60-70 3 5 30-50 4 5 40-50 Hours per sprint 130-170

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19-25 sprints

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Already got a velocity?

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Start of 8 sprint project Average Best Worst Almost definitely Probably Maybe Not a chance

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Estimation problems Planning The answer... What it really means

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“I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” General Dwight. D. Eisenhower

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Estimation is hard and can sometimes be impossible, but it is a learnable skill and when you can do it and do it well, it can be a great aid to agility and efficiency. - Paul Dyson, 2010

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Kano Model Delighted! Dissatisfied Need not fulfilled Need fulfilled

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I N V E S T ndpendent egotiable aluable stimable mall estable

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M o S C o W ust have hould have ould have ont have

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Burndowns

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0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tasks/Hours Days Sprint Burndown

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0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tasks/Hours Days Sprint Burndown

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0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tasks/Hours Days Sprint Burndown

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0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tasks/Hours Days Sprint Burndown

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0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Story Points Days Sprint Burndown

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0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Story Points Days Sprint Burndown

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0 175 350 525 700 01/01/2011 30/01/2011 24/02/2011 17/03/2011 18/04/2011 Story Points Days Release Burndown