Slide 44
Slide 44 text
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Advancing towards the unknown
Urgentem Encounters 04/09/2020
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Figure 4. A stylized representation of the four ecosystem
functions (r, K, ⍀, ␣) and the flow of events among them.
The arrows show the speed of the flow in the cycle. Short,
closely spaced arrows indicate a slowly changing situa-
tion; long arrows indicate a rapidly changing situation.
The cycle reflects changes in two properties: the y axis
(the potential that is inherent in the accumulated re-
sources of biomass and nutrients) and the x axis (the
and others 2001). The Soviet Union is a societal
example of accumulated rigidities that precipitate a
sudden collapse. The proximate agents of distur-
bance in these cases can be stakeholder revolts,
public-interest attacks through the legal system, or
more extreme societal revolts.
The phase from ⍀ to ␣ is a period of rapid reor-
ganization during which novel recombinations can
unexpectedly seed experiments that lead to inno-
vations in the next cycle. The economist J. A.
Schumpeter (1950) appropriately called this phase
“creative destruction.” Initially, the “front loop” of
the trajectory, from r to K, becomes progressively
more predictable as it develops. In contrast, the
“back loop” of the adaptive cycle, from ⍀ to ␣, is
inherently unpredictable and highly uncertain. At
that stage, the previously accumulated mutations,
inventions, external invaders, and capital can be-
come reassorted into novel combinations, some of
which nucleate new opportunity.
It is as if two separate objectives are functioning,
but in sequence. The first maximizes production
Figure 5. Resilience is another dimension of the adaptive
cycle. A third dimension, resilience, is added to the two-
dimensional box of Figure 4 to show how resilience ex-
Understanding Complex Systems 395
Holling (2001), “Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems”