Amazon Forecast を使って売上予測をしてみた

by Takafumi Omuro

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"NB[PO'PSFDBTUΛ࢖ͬͯ ച্༧ଌΛͯ͠Έͨ גࣜձࣾϞϦαϫ খࣨو࢙

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!.PSJTBXB*OD ໊લɿখࣨو࢙ʢ͓ΉΖ͔ͨ;Έʣ ॴଐɿגࣜձࣾϞϦαϫ ɹɹɹγεςϜ։ൃ෦γχΞϚωʔδϟʔ ࢓ࣄɿςοΫϦʔυ ɹɹɹ"84ΠϯϑϥΤϯδχΞ ޷͖ͳ"84αʔϏεɿ$MPVE'PSNBUJPO ࣗݾ঺հ

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"NB[PO'PSFDBTU

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!.PSJTBXB*OD "NB[PO'PSFDBTU w ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷ༧ଌαʔϏε

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ϑϧϚωʔδυͳͷͰ "*.-Λ஌Βͳͯ͘΋Ͱ͖ͦ͏

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!.PSJTBXB*OD "NB[PO'PSFDBTU w ࣌ܥྻσʔλͷ༧ଌαʔϏε w ༧ଌස౓ w ෼ɺ࣌ؒɺ೔ɺिɺ݄ɺ೥ w ༧ଌظؒ w ౤ೖσʔλͷ͔ͷখ͍͞ํʹͳΔ w σʔληοτυϝΠϯ w খചɺΠϯϕϯτϦܭըɺ&$ΩϟύγςΟɺैۀһܭըɺ w 8FCτϥϑΟοΫɺऩӹɾΩϟογϡϑϩʔɺͦͷଞ͢΂ͯͷ༧ଌ w ΞϧΰϦζϜ w "3*." $//23 &54 /154 1SPHIFU %FFQ"3 w ίϨҎ֎͸4BHF.BLFS w 4BHF.BLFSͷ΄͏͕ͳΜͰ΋Ͱ͖Δ͚Ͳ࣌ؒ͸͔͔Δ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD ΞϧΰϦζϜ w "3*."ࣗݾճؼ࿨෼Ҡಈฏۉ w ఆৗੑ͕͋Δ೾ଧͭಈ͖ΛฏۉԽ͢ΔɺΩϟϯϖʔϯͱ͔ͷεύΠΫ͸ϊΠζ w &54ࢦ਺ฏ׈๏ w "3*."ͱٯʹมಈੑʹॏ͖Λஔ͘ɺՃॏฏۉͰܭࢉ w /154ϊϯύϥϝτϦοΫ࣌ܥྻ w αϯϓϦϯάͰಈ࡞ɺ͢΂ͯͷσʔλͰ͸ͳ͘ఆ఺؍ଌͯ͠ಈ͘ʢ("ͱ͔΋ఆ఺؍ଌʣ w 1SPQIFUϕΠζߏ଄࣌ܥྻϞσϧ w ৄࡉͳσʔλͷऔѻ͕ಘҙ w $//23৞ΈࠐΈχϡʔϥϧωοτϫʔΫ෼Ґճؼ w 8IBUJG෼ੳʹར༻Մೳ w %FFQ"3࠶ؼܕχϡʔτϥϧωοτϫʔΫ w %FFQ-FBSOJOHɺ8IBUJG෼ੳʹར༻Մೳ

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ࢼͯ͠ΈΔ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD "84ΞʔΩςΫνϟ %#͔Β$47Λऔಘ 4΁഑ஔ 'PSFDBTUͰ༧ଌ 2VJDL4JHIUͰՄࢹԽ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD σʔλͷ४උ w ༧ଌ͍ͨ͠σʔλʹؔ͢Δաڈͷ࣌ܥྻσʔλ w *% UJNFTUBNQ ༧ଌ஋ͷϑΟʔϧυ͕ඞਢ w ༧ଌ஋ϑΟʔϧυ͸࠷େݸࢦఆՄೳ w ϑΥʔϚοτ w $47 w ΧϯϚ۠੾Γ w λΠϜελϯϓ͸ZZZZNNEE ))NNTT ܗࣜ w +40/ w εΩʔϚΛ४උ w σʔλλΠϓ͸JOUFHFS qPBU TUSJOH UJNFTUBNQΛαϙʔτ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w %#͔Β$47Λ࡞੒͠4ʹอଘͯ͠2VJDL4JHIUͰՄࢹԽ σʔλͷ४උ2VJDL4JHIU ˞ϑΣΠΫσʔλͰ͢

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w σʔληοτάϧʔϓ࡞੒ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU υϝΠϯ͸ খചΛࢦఆ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w σʔληοτ࡞੒ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU Πϯϙʔτ͢Δ σʔλͷස౓

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w σʔληοτ࡞੒ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU $47Λબ୒͠ 4ͷ৔ॴΛઃఆ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w μογϡϘʔυ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ͠͹Β͕࣌ؒ͘ ͔͔ΔͷͰ଴ͭ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w μογϡϘʔυ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ऴΘͬͨͷͰ ֶश։࢝

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ༧ଌࢠͷ࡞੒τϨʔχϯά "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ༧ଌස౓ ຖ೔ ༧ଌظؒ ̓೔ؒ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ༧ଌࢠͷ࡞੒τϨʔχϯά "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ͕͔͔࣌ؒΔͷͰ ऴΘΔ·Ͱ଴ͪ·͢

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w μογϡϘʔυ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ऴΘͬͨͷͰ ༧ଌ։࢝

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ༧ଌͷ࡞੒ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ઌఔͷ༧ଌࢠΛ ࢖ͬͯ༧ଌ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ༧ଌͷ࡞੒ग़ྗ "NB[PO'PSFDBTU ༧ଌ͕Ͱ͖ͨͷͰ ΤΫεϙʔτ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w 2VJDL4JHIUͰՄࢹԽ ༧ଌ݁Ռͷ֬ೝ2VJDL4JHIU

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ച্ͱ౴͑߹Θͤ ༧ଌ݁Ռͷ֬ೝ2VJDL4JHIU

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ച্ͱ౴͑߹Θͤ ༧ଌ݁Ռͷ֬ೝ2VJDL4JHIU ॕ೔ ٳΈͷ೔͸ചΕͳ͍

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ച্ͱ౴͑߹Θͤ ༧ଌ݁Ռͷ֬ೝ2VJDL4JHIU ౔೔ͷ༧ଌ ٳΈͷ೔͸ചΕͳ͍

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!.PSJTBXB*OD w ച্ͱ౴͑߹Θͤ ༧ଌ݁Ռͷ֬ೝ2VJDL4JHIU ॕ೔Ҏ֎ Qલޙʹ֓Ͷऩ·͍ͬͯΔ

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!.PSJTBXB*OD "*.-ૉਓͰ΋༧ଌ͸Ͱ͖ͨ w Ϟσϧ͕४උ͞Ε͍ͯΔͷͰػցֶशΛ஌Βͳͯ͘΋࢖͑Δ w ͱ͸͍͑༻ޠͳͲΘ͔Βͳ͍ݴ༿͕ଟ͍ͷͰௐ΂ͳ͕Βࢼ͢͜ͱʹͳͬͨ w ೔ຊޠԽ͞Εͯͳ͍ͷͰͱ͖ͬͭʹ͘͞͸͋ͬͨ w σʔλྔ͕গͳ͍ͷͰ͍͍݁Ռ͸ग़ͯͳ͍ w ϊΠζΛআڈ͢ΔઃఆͳͲ΋ೖΕΔͱଟগ͸ྑ͘ͳΓͦ͏ w ͜ͷ͋ͨΓ΋ػցֶशͷ஌͕ࣝͳ͍ͱਏͦ͏ʹײͨ͡ w අ༻͕ͦͦ͜͜ߴ͍ w Πϯϙʔτͨ͠σʔλɿ(# w ༧ଌػͷτϨʔχϯάɿI w ࠓճͷ༧ଌͰ͔͔ͬͨ ·ͱΊ

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"84ΤϯδχΞ ஥ؒืूதͰ͢ʂ IUUQTXXXNPSJTBXBDPKQBCPVUSFDSVJU 8&"3&)*3*/(