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Island Climate Update 185 Forecast period: February – April 2016 Teleconference Friday 5th of February 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Cme) 5/02/16 1

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1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecCon and SST anomalies last month (January 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaCon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaCon (MJO) diagnosCcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 5/02/16 2 Outline

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1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec

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Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 5/02/16 4

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5/02/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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5/02/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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SST anomalies December 2015 SST anomalies January 2016 5/02/16 7

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5/02/16 8

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2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa

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SOI and SST NINO INDICES 5/02/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10

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The ENSO Precipita

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Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 5/02/16 12

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Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml December 2015 January 2016 Last 5 days (February 3)

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5/02/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 5/02/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliCes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. FMA 2016 0% 4% 96% MJJ 2016 13% 48% 39% ASO 2016 40% 46% 14% Climate Model or Group FMA 2016 MJJ 2016 ASO 2016 POAMA2.4 (Australia) El Niño Neutral + Neutral ECMWF (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) El Niño Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral - NCEP CFS (USA) El Niño El Niño Neutral + Met Office (UK) El Niño Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) El Niño Neutral La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) El Niño Neutral Unavailable JMA (Japan) El Niño Neutral Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) El Niño Neutral Neutral - CPC CCA (USA) El Niño Neutral + Neutral NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña CLIPER (USA) El Niño Neutral Neutral - Florida State Univ. (USA) El Niño Neutral La Niña

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3) MJO diagnos

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (FMA 2016) 5/02/16 20

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5/02/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for FMA 2016

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5/02/16 22 METPI rainfall results February – April 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Kiribati (Eastern) 10 30 60 ABOVE High Kiribati (Western) 10 30 60 ABOVE Moderate-High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Cook Islands (Northern) 20 35 45 ABOVE Moderate-High Marquesas 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tokelau 20 35 45 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 25 40 35 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Austral Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Society Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate Papua New Guinea 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Solomon Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High New Caledonia 45 35 20 BELOW High Samoa 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Tonga 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW Wallis & Futuna 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 60 30 10 BELOW Moderate-High FSM 60 30 10 BELOW High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is

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5/02/16 23 METPI rainfall results

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6) METPI SST forecasts (JFM 2015/16) 5/02/16 24

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5/02/16 25 SST anomalies For January 2016 SST forecasts for FMA 2016