Tweet
Tweet

Slide 1

Slide 1 text

SUMMER SCENARIOS An Educa1onal Webinar Series By the Consor1um for Scenario Planning www.scenarioplanning.io

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

SCENARIO PLANNING BASICS PART 1 PLANNING FOR RESILIENCY AND ADAPTABILITY TO UNCERTAIN FUTURES Webinar 1 of 5: www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

Learning Objec1ves 1.  What scenario planning is and why it is important 2.  How to apply a step-by-step framework for scenario planning to your work 3.  How prac>>oners have approached specific steps through past projects

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

Agenda 1.  Speaker introduc>ons 2.  Interview with Regional Plan Associa>on (RPA) & Basics of Scenario Planning 3.  Audience ques>ons 4.  Closing

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

Speakers & Facilitator Speakers: •  Ellis Calvin - Senior Planner, Energy & Environment, RPA •  Christopher Jones - Senior Vice President and Chief Planner, RPA •  Robert Lane - Senior Fellow for Urban Design, RPA Facilitator: •  Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP - Decision Support Fellow, Consor>um for Scenario Planning, Lincoln Ins>tute of Land Policy, [email protected]

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

What is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a structured process to support decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term.

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

Why is scenario planning important? Rural and urban planners commonly face 3 challenges: Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes Public engagement without communica>on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others 1 2 3

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

Transparent underlying decision making structure with clear variables Know when an impac[ul change occurred, enables periodic “refreshing” Step-by-step framework will help clarify where transparency is lacking Requirement: In order to: Good news:

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

#2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

#2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

Professionals understand concepts well first Incorporated into the “stakeholder and public engagement” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Boil down concepts to an accessible level for the public

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

#3 - Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

Organiza>on has worked with staff, stakeholders, and public to clarify quality of life outcomes Incorporated into the “direc>on se`ng” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Enable transparency about the outcomes

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

Scenario planning involves rethinking the planning process to increase flexibility, improve public engagement, and/or clarify the outcomes of focus. Not all 3 need to be done at once, but can build upon each other. Scenario planning is not parallel to the planning process; it is the process.

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

Why did RPA decide to have a scenario planning component within its planning process? Tell us a bit about the broader regional planning process that it supported.

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

23 million residents $1.8 trillion economy 13,000 square miles 782 municipalities NY-NJ-CT Metropolitan region

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

No content

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

Why Scenarios? §  Understand implications of different settlement patterns §  Use this understanding to shape policy and investment proposals §  Evaluate proposals in context of uncertainty

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

Evaluating scenarios and proposals Impact by geography, income, race and ethnicity on: §  Household incomes §  Housing and transportation costs §  Access to good schools, jobs and other resources §  Public health §  Livability §  Resilience to climate change §  Natural resource protection Feasibility §  Cost §  Complexity §  Public support Flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Step-by-Step Framework

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

Founda1on Building

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

What were the primary and secondary issues addressed through the scenario planning process?

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

•  Increase incomes and reduce poverty •  Expand housing choices and lower costs •  Revitalize downtowns and neighborhoods •  Increase revenue for public needs •  Support a growing dependent population Why grow?

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

How much growth should we plan for? 2015 Jobs: 11.6 M 2015 Population: 22.9 M

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

What forces and drivers had the most impact on the issues RPA sought to address? What assump1ons did RPA consider, and how did the levels of certainty vary?

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

External forces §  Climate change §  Technology §  Global migra>on §  Demographic & cultural change §  Na>onal economic growth §  Interna>onal compe>>on Internal decisions §  Infrastructure investments §  Regulatory structure §  Land use policies §  Fiscal policies §  Health and educa>on §  Governance Determinants of growth

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

High certainty §  Many more elderly §  Smaller working age popula>on §  Racial and ethnic diversity §  Less land to develop §  Aging infrastructure §  Rising sea levels Less certainty §  Slightly lower na>onal growth §  New jobs dispropor>onately high skill §  Substan>al increase in working at home & off peak travel §  Preference for walkable neighborhoods will increase §  Other regions will invest strongly in housing and infrastructure §  More frequent and intense storms Assumptions

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

Direc1on Se^ng

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

How did RPA formulate the scenarios? And what scenarios, or plausible future states, ended up being considered?

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

Creating the Scenarios: Place Types Defining Types of Places §  Residential density §  Employment density §  Intersection density §  Degree of mixed use §  Impervious surface

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Allocating Growth: Factors Factors for Growth §  Distance to a train station §  Current number of jobs within a 60 minute drive §  Percent vacant developable land §  Percent of population in the 2050 flood zone §  “Ecological Sensitivity”: regional ecological flows and habitat resilience §  Capacity: residential/employment density the top quartile of its place type

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

Reinforce the Center Resurgent Downtowns Reinvent the Suburbs Grow With Nature Four ways to 1.9 million jobs and 3.7 million people

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

What types of outcomes were priori>zed?

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

All scenarios are transit-oriented by design

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

Social equity

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

Transportation

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

Response & Ac1on Planning

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

Stakeholder & Public Engagement

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

How was public engagement incorporated into the scenario planning process? Were there par>cular “tradeoffs” that resonated with the public?

Slide 43

Slide 43 text

Partnerships Fourth Plan Process Community Voices Heard (Hudson Valley) Partnership for Strong Communities (Connecticut) Housing and Community Development Network (New Jersey) Make the Road Connecticut (CT and LI) New York Communities for Change (Long Island) Right to the City Alliance (New York City & National) Alliance for a Greater New York (New York City)

Slide 44

Slide 44 text

No content

Slide 45

Slide 45 text

Audience Ques1ons

Slide 46

Slide 46 text

What is the Consor1um? It provides training and peer exchange to support professionals as they get started with scenario planning and take it to more advanced levels. Who can benefit? Urban, regional, and rural planners and managers, as well as others, are welcome. Official partners include: How can I learn more? Become a par>cipant or join the mailing list by visi>ng the website at scenarioplanning.io or contac>ng Janae at [email protected].

Slide 47

Slide 47 text

Upcoming Summer Scenarios www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ Scenario Planning Basics Part 2: Planning for resiliency and adaptability to uncertain futures Transporta>on Planning: How scenario planning can support performance-based planning Public Outreach: How scenario planning can be used as an engagement technique People and Economies: How quan>ta>ve regional scenarios can set the table for policy and planning June 28 July 18 August 7 August 29

Slide 48

Slide 48 text

Upcoming Consor1um Conference www.scenarioplanning.io/events/ September 12-14 in Columbus, Ohio with host agency Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Save the Date Call for Proposals Call for session proposals through June 22

Slide 49

Slide 49 text

Thank you to the presenters and ajendees! Contact [email protected] with ques>ons.