Hampshire Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baselines Comparing methods and data sources Ben Anderson (University of Southampton, UK) @dataknut ([email protected]) 7/12/2021

2 Contents • Why bother? • What is our CO2 /e emissions baseline? • Depends on emissions ‘accounting’ method: • Territorial-based • Consumption-based • What to do? • Estimate emissions under each ‘accounting’ method • Compare the results • Questions • What is common across methods? • What is not? • What does this tell us? • What (if anything) should we do differently? Currently unclear

3 • Centre for Sustainable Energy (with others) • Also district level • Territorial-based • Like BEIS but • Includes all GHGs -> CO2 e • Includes district’s share of aviation & shipping • Measured and estimated (modelled) • Consumption-based • Not like BEIS – includes emissions ‘off- shored’ by our consumption of goods and services produced outside the area. • Includes all GHGs -> CO2 e • Measured and estimated (modelled) • Data: CSE Impact Tool (Districts, 2018) Data sources • BEIS • District level National Statistics • Only CO2 • Territorial-based – “emissions that occur within the UK’s borders” • but excludes aviation and shipping • & large power stations (‘end user principle’) • Measured and estimated (modelled) • Data: 2005-2019 District Level CO2 emissions Unlike national values Unlike national values carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases Very different approach carbon dioxide equivalent

4 Defining ‘Hampshire’ • All 14 districts… • Carbon Trust excluded • Southampton • Portsmouth • Isle of Wight Mean domestic electricity kWh/meter, 2019 (Data: BEIS LSOA level residential electricity use)

5 But first: Carbon Trust estimates • Industry & Commercial emissions = 3,278 kT CO2 • Transport emissions = 3,157 kT CO2 • Residential emissions = 2,011 kT CO2 Using the proportion values in the figure above, this gives a total of 8,446 kT CO2 for the 11 districts. Data source: HCC Climate Change Strategy & Strategic Framework of Programmes Excludes Southampton, Portsmouth, Isle of Wight

6 BEIS Territorial CO2 only: Trends • Downward trend Data source: BEIS 2019 District Level CO2 emissions All 14 Hampshire districts

7 BEIS Territorial CO2 only: Trends • Downward trend • In electricity emissions • And ‘large industrial installations’ • But not a lot else • Especially: • Gas • Transport Data source: BEIS 2019 District Level CO2 emissions All 14 Hampshire districts

8 BEIS Territorial CO2 only : 2019 Total: 8,421 kT CO2 (all 14 Hampshire districts) Emissions “deemed within district’s sphere of influence”: 7,664 kT CO2 Data source: BEIS 2019 District Level CO2 emissions Lower than Carbon Trust estimate which excluded Southampton, Portsmouth, Isle of Wight?? 90% of emissions Sequestration

9 CSE Territorial all GHGs: 2018 Total: 12,216 kT CO2 e (all 14 Hampshire districts, 45% higher) Data source: CSE Impact Tool (Districts) Aviation Shipping Waste management F-Gases 90% of emissions

10 CSE Consumption all GHGs: 2018 Total: 13,633 kT CO2 e (all 14 Hampshire districts) Goods & services Meat & fish Other food Other consumption 90% of emissions Data source: CSE Impact Tool (Districts)

11 District level comparisons • In all cases: • BEIS Territorial CO2 lower than • CSE Territorial CO2e • In most cases: • CSE Territorial lower than • CSE Consumption • (but not always)

12 Recommendations • Baseline: • Use aggregated BEIS district level data • Request BEIS include aviation & shipping & all GHGs • Modelling policy impact and assessing change: • As above • Annually: • Review mapping between Framework of Programmes & major emissions sources under each method • Review County & Districts & partners’ capacity & capability to influence major sources • Targets: • Apply Science Based Targets for emissions reduction • Review the Framework of Programmes against targets To align with national figures To update net-zero ambitions For transparency & completeness Should anything be done differently? National Statistics…

Questions? Ben Anderson (University of Southampton, UK) @dataknut Report & code: https://hcc-ccecf- datagroup.github.io/hampshire-ghg- emissions/rmd/Hampshire_County_GHG_Em issions_v1.0.html