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Island Climate Update 189 Forecast period: June – August 2016 Teleconference Tuesday 7th of June 2016 (12:30 PM NZ Dme) 7/06/16 1

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1) Some words on Rainfall / ConvecDon and SST anomalies last month (May 2016) 2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system): situaDon and forecast 3) Madden-Julian OscillaDon (MJO) diagnosDcs and forecasts 4) METPI Rainfall Forecast 5) METPI SST Forecast 7/06/16 2 Outline

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1) Recent Rainfall (+Convec

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Rainfall averages and anomalies (TRMM / GPM) 7/06/16 4

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7/06/16 5 hTp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml

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7/06/16 6 •  Well below = < 40 % of normal •  Below = between 40 and 80 % •  Normal = between 80 and 120 % •  Above = between 120 and 160 % •  Well above = > 160 % Past 6 months rainfall anomalies for ICU Islands group (TRMM)

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SST anomalies May 2016 7/06/16 7 SST anomalies April 2016

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7/06/16 8

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2) ENSO (Pacific Ocean – Atmosphere system) situa

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SOI and SST NINO INDICES 7/06/16 Datasource = BoM (hTp://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/enso/) 10

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The ENSO Precipita

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Surface equatorial SST and Zonal Wind anomalies 7/06/16 12

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Ocean sub-surface temp anomalies (TAO) 7/06/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 13 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml May 2016 Last 5 days (June 1) April 2016

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7/06/16 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ 14 hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/heat_tlon.shtml hTp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/ wksl_anm.gif Ocean heat content anomalies (0 – 300 m) and sea level anomalies

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ENSO forecast © NIWA (Na)onal Climate Centre Na)onal Guidance) 7/06/16 15 CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes IRI/CPC Mid-Month Plume-Based ENSO Forecast ProbabiliDes Season La Niña Prob. Neutral Prob. El Niño Prob. JJA 2016 43% 54% 3% SON 2016 58% 34% 8% DJF 2016/17 61% 32% 7% Climate Model or Group JJA 2016 SON 2016 DJF 2016/17 POAMA2.4 (Australia) La Niña La Niña Unavailable ECMWF (EU) La Niña Neutral - Unavailable EuroSIP (EU) Neutral Neutral Unavailable LDEO5 (USA) La Niña Neutral - Neutral NCEP CFS (USA) La Niña La Niña La Niña Met Office (UK) La Niña Unavailable Unavailable SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) La Niña La Niña La Niña NASA-GMAO (USA) La Niña La Niña Unavailable JMA (Japan) La Niña La Niña Unavailable FRCGC SINTEX (Japan) Neutral- La Niña La Niña CPC CCA (USA) Neutral Neutral - Neutral - NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral - CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral Florida State Univ. (USA) Neutral - La Niña La Niña

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3) MJO diagnos

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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Madden Julian Oscilla

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4) METPI Rainfall forecasts (JJA 2016) 7/06/16 20

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7/06/16 21 TRMM rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days Rainfall forecasts for JJA 2016

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7/06/16 22 METPI rainfall results June – August 2016 ICU Rainfall Guidance ISLAND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK CONFIDENCE Cook Islands (Northern) 20 30 50 ABOVE Moderate-High Tokelau 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tuvalu 20 30 50 ABOVE High Tuamotu Islands 20 35 45 ABOVE High Marquesas 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High Samoa 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE Moderate-High Society Islands 25 35 40 AVG - ABOVE High New Caledonia 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL High Pitcairn Island 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate Solomon Islands 30 40 30 NEAR NORMAL Moderate-High Papua New Guinea 35 35 30 CLIMATOLOGY Moderate-High Wallis & Futuna 35 40 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Austral Islands 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Cook Islands (Southern) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (South) 40 35 25 AVG - BELOW Moderate-High Fiji 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Niue 45 35 20 BELOW High Tonga 45 35 20 BELOW Moderate-High Kiribati (Eastern) 50 30 20 BELOW High Kiribati (Western) 50 30 20 BELOW Moderate-High Vanuatu (North) 50 30 20 BELOW FSM 55 30 15 BELOW Moderate-High Rainfall outcomes estimated from an average of dynamical and statistical models for the Pacific Ocean region. The first three columns indicate the probability for rainfall occurring in one of three terciles (lower-L, middle-M, upper-U). The fourth column is

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7/06/16 23 METPI rainfall results

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La Nina in the Pacific 7/06/16 24

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7/06/16 25 strong moderate

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7/06/16 26 weak weak

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6) METPI SST forecasts (MJJ 2016) 7/06/16 28

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7/06/16 29 SST anomalies For May 2016 SST forecasts for JJA 2016