The Roaring 2020s - Speaker Deck

The Roaring 2020s

by Ahmad Nassri

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The Roaring 2020s A look at computing and software evolution in 2020 and beyond

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Hello! I am Ahmad Nassri Syrian-Canadian, Entrepreneur, Developer, Open Source Advocate & Dog lover! CTO at npm, Inc. Contributor to OpenJS Foundation, Founder at Tech Masters Community, Mentor at NodeSchool Toronto, Organizer at Functions Conf, Host of Hacker:Bio Podcast. 2

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3 The 1920s was a decade of new inventions. This was the time directly after World War I. New technologies, especially automobiles, moving pictures, radio and television, brought "modernity" to a large part of the population. “Roaring Twenties”

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AFTER THE 1920s The expression “computing machine” (later “computer”, referred to any machine that performed the work of a human computer. Evolution of “Computing” 4 BEFORE THE 1920s computers were human clerks that performed computations. Many thousands of “computers” were employed in commerce, government, and research establishments. Most of these computers were women. Some performed astronomical calculations for calendars, others ballistic tables for the military.

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6 Computing Division at the USA Department of the Treasury, mid 1920s

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8 Life before AutoCad

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Let’s talk about Makers Or as Microsoft calls them: “Mort”

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Mort the Maker “Mort is someone who doesn't consider programming their main job. Maybe they are a statistician, biologist, or construction estimator, who also knows quite a bit about programming. They are opportunistic, using whatever tool comes to hand that will get the job done.” https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/ericwhite/2006/05/11/who-are-mort-elvis-and-einstein/ https://blog.codinghorror.com/mort-elvis-einstein-and-you/ 10

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A New Industry A new industry is emerging to serve the Morts of the world by designing and selling what are called “no-code” or “low-code” platforms. Companies are creating visual interfaces that enable people to essentially snap together blocks of software, and bypass the actual lines of code underlying those blocks. Anyone can rapidly assemble software tools that solve business problems ranging from simple database queries to applications lashing together multiple legacy enterprise applications. 11

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A New Industry Forrester reports the sector is on track to bring in $15 billion by 2020 as the majority of large companies adopt “Citizen Development” policies similar to the bring-your-own-device rules. Employees will be empowered to choose tools, and even partially assemble software, to solve their own business problems without IT approval. 12

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Or as I’m now calling them: “Rick” This is made possible by Elvis & Einstein

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Can you see where I’m going with this metaphor?

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Where do makers thrive? Oh jeez, Oh man!

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20 Codeless Automation + Cost of automation is near ZERO + No Education / Certiﬁcation needed + Plethora of “Prior Art” + No IT Approval needed = Low barrier to entry

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Ricks (Developers) create the technology, Mortys (Makers) create the adventure! Developers need Makers!

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Where do developers thrive? wubba lubba dub dub!

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1,138,858 Open Source Packages 59,791,547,007 Downloads Last Month 14,572,111,781 Downloads Last Week 24

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40 Million Developers On GitHub Alone (+10 Million just last year) How Many Mortys? The professional “non-developer” 100 Million On GitHub by 2025 25

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26 "Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell - 1899

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So What’s next? Has everything been invented yet?

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▫ Check for bugs ▫ Open Pull Requests ▫ Update Dependencies ▫ Refactor your code ▫ Merge Pull Requests ▫ Thank each other for doing all the hard work! 28 Bots are making jobs easier

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AI writing code! ▫ AIs can generate UI ▫ AIs can generate logos ▫ AIs can generate articles ▫ Functional Business Logic is still in early days ▫ But not science ﬁction 29

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Future Developers: ▫ Build Systems ▫ Build Platforms ▫ Build Bots ▫ Automate all the things! 30

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AFTER THE 2020s The expression “writing code” is no longer used. “Software Professionals” are people who instruct computers using AI technologies to solve problems and generate systems using pre-built or auto generated algorithms. While “Product Makers” use “no-code” platforms to create product experiences. Evolution of “Computing”: Revisited 31 BEFORE THE 2020s Programmers were humans that wrote software code which performed computations. Millions of “programmers” were employed in commerce, government, and research establishments.

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32 1920

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33 2020

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2120?

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What will you make?

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36 Thanks! You can ﬁnd me at: ▫ twitter.com/@AhmadNassri ▫ [email protected] ▫ AhmadNassri.com ▫ ahmadnassri.com/talks