Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI SEVEN YEARS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MALABO DECLARATION: MAKING SENSE OF THE MALABO THEORY OF CHANGE Dr. John Ulimwengu (Presenter)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Motivation • From Maputo to Malabo • Maputo: allocate 10% budget to agriculture to achieve 6% agriculture growth, and reduce poverty rate by 50% by 2015 • Malabo: Maputo +: 7 commitments • The BR framework • Mute on causation • Mute on spillover • Mute on tradeoffs. • Need for a Theory of Change for Malabo

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Making the case for a Theory of Change for Malabo Declaration • Clarify interventions: Map out the causal pathways from specific interventions to desired outcomes. • Enhance stakeholder alignment: Align the diverse array of stakeholders, including governments, development partners, private sector players, and farmers, around a common understanding of the goals and how they can be achieved. • Improve communication: Offer a clear and compelling narrative that can be used to communicate the objectives and strategies of CAADP/Malabo to a broader audience, thereby garnering wider support and understanding.

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Making the case for a Theory of Change for Malabo Declaration (III) Benin, Ulimwengu, and Tefera (2018).

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Econometric Analysis (II) • Over 2017-2021 period, out of the 45 BR performance categories (pc), only 14, about 31.1%, have had significant total effects on the Africa Agricultural Transformation Score (AATS). • This implies that either the selection of drivers may have been overly ambitious, or the implementation process has not been very effective.

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Examples of key results (I) •Budget lines on social protection: increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the minimum acceptable diet and agricultural labor productivity. •Domestic food price volatility index : stability increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the minimum acceptable diet. •Domestic private sector investment in agriculture as % of agriculture value added: increases agricultural land productivity.

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Examples of key results (II) • Proportion of men and women engaged in agriculture with access to financial services: increases the proportion of 6-23 months old children who meet the Minimum Acceptable Diet • Reduction rate of Post-Harvest Losses for (at least) the 5 national priority commodities: decreases the prevalence of underweight (% of children under 5 years old) while increasing the growth rate of the agriculture value added and growth rate agricultural labor productivity. • Share of agriculture land under sustainable land management practices : increases the growth rate of yields for the 5 national priority commodities • Total Agricultural Research Spending as a share of Agricultural GDP : reduces the prevalence (%) of food insecure adults.

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Concluding Remarks • Across the continent, some countries have made significant progress in implementing the CAADP/Malabo agenda or related processes, while others still face greater challenges. • In general, commitment to CAADP values and principles have been achieved has not always produced the expected results. • Several policy outcomes have failed to produce the expected impact on development outcomes. • Improving data quality is critical in designing, implementing and monitoring policy-relevant evidence in support of CAADP/Malabo agenda. • Continued learning from both failed and successful pathways. • Develop a clear theory of change for post-Malabo Agenda.

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