Senior Associate Scientist AKADEMIYA2063 TRACKING KEY CAADP INDICATORS AND IMPLEMENTATION PROCESSES TION Wondwosen Tefera

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes Julia Collins, Wondwosen Tefera, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Outline • Introduction • Progress in CAADP Indicators • Conclusions and Implications

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Introduction • ReSAKSS tracks CAADP implementation processes and indicators through the ATOR and the ReSAKSS website (www.resakss.org) • Since 2015, ReSAKSS tracks and reports progress made in CAADP using the CAADP RF (2015-2025) • The CAADP RF combines a logical flow of three levels of results.

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Introduction (cont’d) • CAADP RF has 38 indicators with considerable overlap with the CAADP BR indicators • 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators are reported in the ATOR and the ReSAKSS website • Data is organized for Africa, subregions, and countries

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • GDP per capita growth slowed since 2008 • Strongest growth is seen during 2000s -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Africa Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Less favorable agriculture conditions More favorable agriculture conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower middle-income countries Upper middle-income countries N00 N01 N10 N11 2003-2008 2008-2014 2014-2022 2022 GDP percapita growth (%) Level I Indicators

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • Declining rates during 2003 to 2008 and from 2008 to 2014, but rising rates thereafter • Increasing undernourishment in the period from 2014 to 2021 was widespread • A steady increase of undernourished people observed Prevalence of undernourishment (%) -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Africa Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Less favorable agriculture conditions More favorable agriculture conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower middle-income countries Upper middle-income countries NAIP00 NAIP01 NAIP10 NAIP11 Annual avg. change (2003-2008) Annual avg. change (2008-2014) Annual avg. change (2014-2021) Level I Indicators (cont’d)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • Child malnutrition remains worryingly high • Prevalence has decreased steadily throughout the CAADP period (annual average declines of between 1.0 and 2.5) Prevalence of child underweight, stunting, and wasting (2014-2021, %) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Africa Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Less favorable agriculture conditions More favorable agriculture conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower middle-income countries Upper middle-income countries NAIP00 NAIP01 NAIP10 NAIP11 Stunting Underweight Wasting Level I Indicators (cont’d)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • A steady but moderate decline throughout the CAADP period • Total number of people living in extreme poverty continued to rise in Africa throughout the CAADP period Poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population) (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Africa Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Less favorable agriculture conditions More favorable agriculture conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower middle-income countries Upper middle-income countries NAIP00 NAIP01 NAIP10 NAIP11 Annual avg. level (2003-2008) Annual avg. level (2008-2014) Annual avg. level (2014-2020) Level I Indicators (cont’d)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • Modest increase throughout the CAADP period (65% growth) • Growth rate range 2.1% to 2.8 percent during the CAADP period Agriculture, value added (constant 2015 US$, billion) Level II Indicators 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 2022 2014- 2022 2008- 2014 2003- 2008 Western Eastern Northern Southern Central

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • Africa has not been able to meet the CAADP 6 percent annual growth target in agriculture value added Level II Indicators (cont’d) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Guinea Niger Ethiopia Senegal Gabon Côte d'Ivoire Kenya Rwanda Benin Seychelles Sao Tome and Principe Mozambique Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Uganda Egypt Congo, Rep. Ghana Gambia Tanzania Angola Cameroon Mali Nigeria Tunisia Mauritania Namibia Botswana Algeria Morocco Malawi Togo Burkina Faso South Africa Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone Mauritius Central African Republic Swaziland Liberia Madagascar Lesotho Guinea-Bissau Burundi Chad Cabo Verde Zambia Libya Percent Annual avg. level (2008–2014) Annual avg. level (2014–2022) CAADP 6% Target

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • Rose steadily throughout the CAADP period: $5.5b (2003) to $16.5b (2022) • Remained less than 20% of the total Ag import • Southern Africa dominates intra-African agricultural trade • Growth trend slowed considerably in 2014 - 2022 (at 3% vs 8% in early CAADP) Level II Indicators (cont’d) 1% 22% 17% 44% 16% Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa 31% 16% 3% 50% N00 N01 N10 N11 3% 16% 9% 42% 30% Less favorable ag. conditions More favorable ag. conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower-middle-income countries Upper-middle-income countries Intra-African agricultural trade (2014-2022, %)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • GAE increased at a slower rate Ø5.3% in 2003-2008 Ø1.5% in 2008-2014 Ø0.3% in 2014-2022 Level III Indicators Government agricultural expenditure, annual % change -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Africa Central Eastern Northern Southern Western Less favorable ag. conditions More favorable ag. conditions Mineral-rich countries Lower-middle-income countries Upper-middle-income countries N00 N01 N10 N11 2003–2008 2008–2014 2014–2022 • GAE increased over time: $11.4b (2003) to $17b (2022)

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Progress in CAADP Indicators • GAE share in total government expenditure remained below the 10 percent target for Africa and subregions (<3%) • Few countries meet the 10% target Level III Indicators (cont’d) Share of GAE in total government expenditure (%) 0 4 8 12 16 20 Ethiopia Malawi Sierra Leone Benin Niger Burkina Faso Mali Sudan Namibia Rwanda Senegal Cabo Verde Tunisia Cameroon Zambia Swaziland Madagascar Morocco Sao Tome and Principe Guinea-Bissau Togo Tanzania Ghana Kenya Mozambique Central African Republic Lesotho Djibouti Côte d'Ivoire Uganda Seychelles Nigeria Gambia Guinea Botswana Chad Egypt Mauritius Burundi South Africa Mauritania Liberia Angola Algeria Comoros South Sudan Equatorial Guinea Congo, Rep. 2008–2014 2014–2022 CAADP 10% Target

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Conclusion

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR Conclusions and implications • Africa has made major progress in several areas in the last two decades • Progress on many of the indicators has either slowed or reversed in recent years. • Africa remained below the CAADP spending and ag. growth targets • There is a needs to üimprove agricultural production and productivity through locally adapted and appropriate policy changes, investments, and innovations üEfficient allocation of GAE through evidence-based approach üBoost intra-African ag. trade with (i) a focus on value added and processed agricultural goods, and (ii) continued implementation of AfCFTA to boost intra- African trade

#2023ReSAKSS #2023ATOR • Allows to customize indicators and countries/subgroups • Displays the results in a variety of formats, including maps and charts • ReSAKSS website: www.resakss.org

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