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Jake VanderPlas
PyCon 2016
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< About Me >
- Astronomer by training
- Statistician by accident
- Active in Python science & open source
- Data Scientist at UW eScience Institute
- @jakevdp on Twitter & Github
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No content
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Hacker (n.)
1. A person who is trying to steal
your grandma’s bank password.
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Hacker (n.)
1. A person who is trying to steal
your grandma’s bank password.
2. A person whose natural approach
to problem-solving involves
writing code.
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Statistics is Hard.
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Statistics is Hard.
Using programming skills,
it can be easy.
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My thesis today:
If you can write a for-loop,
you can do statistics
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Statistics is fundamentally about
Asking the Right Question.
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– Dr. Seuss (attr)
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Warm-up
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You toss a coin 30
times and see 22
heads. Is it a fair coin?
Warm-up:
Coin Toss
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A fair coin should
show 15 heads in 30
tosses. This coin is
biased.
Even a fair coin
could show 22 heads
in 30 tosses. It might
be just chance.
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Classic Method:
Assume the Skeptic is correct:
test the Null Hypothesis.
What is the probability of a fair
coin showing 22 heads simply
by chance?
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Classic Method:
Start computing probabilities . . .
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Classic Method:
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Classic Method:
Number of
arrangements
(binomial
coefficient) Probability of
N
H
heads
Probability of
N
T
tails
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Classic Method:
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Classic Method:
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Classic Method:
0.8 %
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Classic Method:
0.8 %
Probability of 0.8% (i.e. p = 0.008) of
observations given a fair coin.
→ reject fair coin hypothesis at p < 0.05
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Could there be
an easier way?
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Easier Method:
Just simulate it!
M = 0
for i in range(10000):
trials = randint(2, size=30)
if (trials.sum() >= 22):
M += 1
p = M / 10000 # 0.008149
→ reject fair coin at p = 0.008
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In general . . .
Computing the Sampling
Distribution is Hard.
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In general . . .
Computing the Sampling
Distribution is Hard.
Simulating the Sampling
Distribution is Easy.
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Four Recipes for
Hacking Statistics:
1. Direct Simulation
2. Shuffling
3. Bootstrapping
4. Cross Validation
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Now, the Star-Belly Sneetches
had bellies with stars.
The Plain-Belly Sneetches
had none upon thars . . .
Sneeches:
Stars and
Intelligence
*inspired by John Rauser’s
Statistics Without All The Agonizing Pain
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★ ❌
84 72 81 69
57 46 74 61
63 76 56 87
99 91 69 65
66 44
62 69
★ mean: 73.5
❌ mean: 66.9
difference: 6.6
Sneeches:
Stars and
Intelligence
Test Scores
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★ mean: 73.5
❌ mean: 66.9
difference: 6.6
Is this difference of 6.6
statistically significant?
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Classic
Method
(Welch’s t-test)
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Classic
Method
(Welch’s t-test)
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Classic
Method
(Student’s t distribution)
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Classic
Method
(Student’s t distribution)
Degree of Freedom: “The number of independent
ways by which a dynamic system can move,
without violating any constraint imposed on it.”
-Wikipedia
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Degree of Freedom: “The number of independent
ways by which a dynamic system can move,
without violating any constraint imposed on it.”
-Wikipedia
Classic
Method
(Student’s t distribution)
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Classic
Method
( Welch–Satterthwaite
equation)
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Classic
Method
( Welch–Satterthwaite
equation)
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Classic
Method
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Classic
Method
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Classic
Method
1.7959
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Classic
Method
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Classic
Method
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Classic
Method
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“The difference of 6.6 is not
significant at the p=0.05 level”
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No content
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The biggest problem:
We’ve entirely lost-track
of what question we’re
answering!
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< One popular alternative . . . >
“Why don’t you just . . .”
from statsmodels.stats.weightstats import ttest_ind
t, p, dof = ttest_ind(group1, group2,
alternative='larger',
usevar='unequal')
print(p) # 0.186
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< One popular alternative . . . >
“Why don’t you just . . .”
from statsmodels.stats.weightstats import ttest_ind
t, p, dof = ttest_ind(group1, group2,
alternative='larger',
usevar='unequal')
print(p) # 0.186
. . . But what question is
this answering?
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The deep meaning lies in the
sampling distribution:
Stepping Back...
0.8 %
Same principle as
the coin example:
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Let’s use a sampling
method instead
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The Problem:
Unlike coin flipping, we don’t
have a generative model . . .
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The Problem:
Unlike coin flipping, we don’t
have a generative model . . .
Solution:
Shuffling
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★ ❌
84 72 81 69
57 46 74 61
63 76 56 87
99 91 69 65
66 44
62 69
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by shuffling the labels
repeatedly and computing
the desired statistic.
Motivation:
if the labels really don’t
matter, then switching
them shouldn’t change
the result!
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★ ❌
84 72 81 69
57 46 74 61
63 76 56 87
99 91 69 65
66 44
62 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 72 81 69
57 46 74 61
63 76 56 87
99 91 69 65
66 44
62 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 81 72 69
61 69 74 57
65 76 56 87
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 81 72 69
61 69 74 57
65 76 56 87
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 69
★ mean: 72.4
❌ mean: 67.6
difference: 4.8
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 81 72 69
61 69 74 57
65 76 56 87
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 69
★ mean: 72.4
❌ mean: 67.6
difference: 4.8
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 81 72 69
61 69 74 57
65 76 56 87
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 56 72 69
61 63 74 57
65 66 81 87
62 44 46 69
76 91
99 69
★ mean: 62.6
❌ mean: 74.1
difference: -11.6
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 56 72 69
61 63 74 57
65 66 81 87
62 44 46 69
76 91
99 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
74 56 72 69
61 63 84 57
87 76 81 65
91 99 46 69
66 62
44 69
★ mean: 75.9
❌ mean: 65.3
difference: 10.6
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 56 72 69
61 63 74 57
65 66 81 87
62 44 46 69
76 91
99 69
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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★ ❌
84 81 69 69
61 69 87 74
65 76 56 57
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 72
1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
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1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
★ ❌
74 62 72 57
61 63 84 69
87 81 76 65
91 99 46 69
66 56
44 69
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1. Shuffle Labels
2. Rearrange
3. Compute means
★ ❌
84 81 72 69
61 69 74 57
65 76 56 87
99 44 46 63
66 91
62 69
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score difference
number
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score difference
number
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16 %
score difference
number
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“A difference of 6.6 is not
significant at p = 0.05.”
That day, all the Sneetches
forgot about stars
And whether they had one,
or not, upon thars.
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Notes on Shuffling:
- Works when the Null Hypothesis assumes
two groups are equivalent
- Like all methods, it will only work if your
samples are representative – always be
careful about selection biases!
- Needs care for non-independent trials.
Good discussion in Simon’s Resampling:
The New Statistics
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Four Recipes for
Hacking Statistics:
1. Direct Simulation
2. Shuffling
3. Bootstrapping
4. Cross Validation
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Yertle’s Turtle Tower
On the far-away island
of Sala-ma-Sond,
Yertle the Turtle
was king of the pond. . .
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How High can Yertle
stack his turtles?
- What is the mean of the number of
turtles in Yertle’s stack?
- What is the uncertainty on this
estimate?
48 24 32 61 51 12 32 18 19 24
21 41 29 21 25 23 42 18 23 13
Observe 20 of Yertle’s turtle towers . . .
# of turtles
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Classic Method:
Sample Mean:
Standard Error of the Mean:
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What assumptions go into
these formulae?
Can we use
sampling instead?
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Problem:
As before, we don’t have a
generating model . . .
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Problem:
As before, we don’t have a
generating model . . .
Solution:
Bootstrap Resampling
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Bootstrap Resampling:
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21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19 18
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19 18 61
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19 18 61 29
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19 18 61 29 41
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Bootstrap Resampling:
48 24 51 12
21 41 25 23
32 61 19 24
29 21 23 13
32 18 42 18
Idea:
Simulate the distribution
by drawing samples with
replacement.
Motivation:
The data estimates its
own distribution – we
draw random samples
from this distribution.
21 19 25 24 23 19 41 23 41 18
61 12 42 42 42 19 18 61 29 41
→ 31.05
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Repeat this
several thousand times . . .
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for i in range(10000):
sample = N[randint(20, size=20)]
xbar[i] = mean(sample)
mean(xbar), std(xbar)
# (28.9, 2.9)
Recovers The Analytic Estimate!
Height = 29 ± 3 turtles
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Bootstrap sampling
can be applied even to
more involved statistics
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Bootstrap on Linear
Regression:
What is the relationship between speed of wind
and the height of the Yertle’s turtle tower?
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Bootstrap on Linear
Regression:
for i in range(10000):
i = randint(20, size=20)
slope, intercept = fit(x[i], y[i])
results[i] = (slope, intercept)
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Notes on Bootstrapping:
- Bootstrap resampling is well-studied and
rests on solid theoretical grounds.
- Bootstrapping often doesn’t work well for
rank-based statistics (e.g. maximum value)
- Works poorly with very few samples
(N > 20 is a good rule of thumb)
- As always, be careful about selection
biases & non-independent data!
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Four Recipes for
Hacking Statistics:
1. Direct Simulation
2. Shuffling
3. Bootstrapping
4. Cross Validation
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Onceler Industries:
Sales of Thneeds
I'm being quite useful!
This thing is a Thneed.
A Thneed's a Fine-Something-
That-All-People-Need!
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Thneed sales seem to show a
trend with temperature . . .
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y = a + bx
y = a + bx + cx2
But which model is a better fit?
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y = a + bx
y = a + bx + cx2
Can we judge by root-mean-
square error?
RMS error = 63.0
RMS error = 51.5
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In general, more flexible models will
always have a lower RMS error.
y = a + bx
y = a + bx + cx2
y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3
y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3 + ex4
y = a + ⋯
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y = a + bx + cx2 + dx3 + ex4 + fx5 + ⋯ + nx14
RMS error does not
tell the whole story.
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Not to worry:
Statistics has figured this out.
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Classic Method
Difference in Mean
Squared Error follows
chi-square distribution:
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Classic Method
Can estimate degrees of
freedom easily because
the models are nested . . .
Difference in Mean
Squared Error follows
chi-square distribution:
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Classic Method
Can estimate degrees of
freedom easily because
the models are nested . . .
Difference in Mean
Squared Error follows
chi-square distribution:
Plug in our numbers . . .
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Classic Method
Can estimate degrees of
freedom easily because
the models are nested . . .
Difference in Mean
Squared Error follows
chi-square distribution:
Plug in our numbers . . .
Wait… what question
were we trying to
answer again?
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Another Approach:
Cross Validation
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Cross-Validation
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Cross-Validation
1. Randomly Split data
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Cross-Validation
1. Randomly Split data
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Cross-Validation
2. Find the best model for each subset
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Cross-Validation
3. Compare models across subsets
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Cross-Validation
3. Compare models across subsets
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Cross-Validation
3. Compare models across subsets
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Cross-Validation
3. Compare models across subsets
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Cross-Validation
4. Compute RMS error for each
RMS = 48.9
RMS = 55.1
RMS estimate = 52.1
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Cross-Validation
Repeat for as long as
you have patience . . .
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Cross-Validation
5. Compare cross-validated RMS for models:
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Cross-Validation
Best model minimizes the
cross-validated error.
5. Compare cross-validated RMS for models:
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. . . I biggered the loads
of the thneeds I shipped out!
I was shipping them forth,
to the South, to the East
to the West, to the North!
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Notes on Cross-Validation:
- This was “2-fold” cross-validation; other
CV schemes exist & may perform better
for your data (see e.g. scikit-learn docs)
- Cross-validation is the go-to method for
model evaluation in machine learning,
as statistics of the models are often not
known in the classical sense.
- Again: caveats about selection bias and
independence in data.
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Four Recipes for
Hacking Statistics:
1. Direct Simulation
2. Shuffling
3. Bootstrapping
4. Cross Validation
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Sampling Methods
allow you to use intuitive computational
approaches in place of often
non-intuitive statistical rules.
If you can write a for-loop
you can do statistical analysis.
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Things I didn’t have time for:
- Bayesian Methods: very intuitive & powerful
approaches to more sophisticated modeling.
(see e.g. Bayesian Methods for Hackers by Cam Davidson-Pilon)
- Selection Bias: if you get data selection
wrong, you’ll have a bad time.
(See Chris Fonnesbeck’s Scipy 2015 talk, Statistical Thinking for Data Science)
- Detailed considerations on use of sampling,
shuffling, and bootstrapping.
(I recommend Statistics Is Easy by Shasha & Wilson
And Resampling: The New Statistics by Julian Simon)
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– Dr. Seuss (attr)
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~ Thank You! ~
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @jakevdp
Github: jakevdp
Web: http://vanderplas.com/
Blog: http://jakevdp.github.io/
Slides available at
http://speakerdeck.com/jakevdp/statistics-for-hackers/