The National Propensity to Cycle Tool: DfT funded research on cycling

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The National Propensity to Cycle Tool An online, interactive, open source evidence-based decision support application Presented at Cycle City Active 2015, Newcastle Civic Centre, 26th June 2015 Robin Lovelace, University of Leeds r.lovelace@leeds.ac.uk

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Distance and mode dependence (Sheffield)

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Overview ● Why create the National Propensity to Cycle Tool (NPCT)? ● How did we build it? ● What does it do? ● How will it be used? ● Future plans

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Why did we build it? http://homepag e.ntlworld.com/ pete.meg/wcc/f acility-of-the- month/January 2015.htm

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Tools of the trade: pricey http://www.oasys-software.com/products/engineering/massmotion.html

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The costs of transport planning

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The benefits of collaboration Credit: flickr CC license

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The costs of incompatibility

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How did we build it? ● Open Source software ● 'Agile' and open development workflow, using GitHub – see ● Multi-disciplinary team ● (Tech. Part: source code using shiny, leaflet packages which compile into html and javascript!)

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Distance decay

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Why distance decay? Source: NPCT model Output (Leeds)

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Capacity issues

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What does it do? ● Visualises current cycling rate across zones ● Interactive visualisation of flows ● Illustrates scenarios of the future… ● At high-geographical resolution ● Including route-allocated potential

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How will it be used? ● Strategic planning to determine where new bicycle paths are most needed. ● Targeting specific areas with high cycling potential ● 'Visioning' for long-term future ● Many other uses (Phase II)

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Model results

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Next steps ● Deploy the NPCT nationwide ● Add education layer ● Tweaks to the model ● Micro-level model ● Include 'amplifier' effects ● Training – allow others to modify

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Cycling is contagious! Credit: Tom Gutowski, Sustrans

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Positive social feedback Credit: Tom Gutowski, Sustrans

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Live demo!

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Thanks for listening! Thanks to the NPCT team: James Woodcock Rachel Aldred Anna Goodman Robin Lovelace