SUMMER SCENARIOS An Educa1onal Webinar Series By the Consor1um for Scenario Planning www.scenarioplanning.io 

SCENARIO PLANNING BASICS PART 2: PLANNING FOR RESILIENCY AND ADAPTABILITY TO UNCERTAIN FUTURES Webinar 2 of 5: www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ 

Learning Objec1ves 1.  What scenario planning is and why it is important 2.  How to apply a step-by-step framework for scenario planning to your work 3.  How prac>>oners have approached specific steps through past projects 

Agenda 1.  Speaker introduc>ons 2.  Overview of what scenario planning is and why it is important 3.  Interview with Metrolinx and WSP & step-by-step framework for scenario planning 4.  Audience ques>ons 5.  Closing 

Speakers & Facilitator Speakers: •  Eric Petersen - Senior Advisor, Systems Planning, Planning and Policy, Metrolinx •  Lisa Salsberg - Senior Manager, Systems Planning, Planning and Policy, Metrolinx •  KiRy Chiu - Transporta>on Planner, Urban Mobility, WSP •  Daniel Haufschild - Principal, Arup (previously with WSP) Facilitator: •  Janae Futrell, AICP, LEED AP - Decision Support Fellow, Consor>um for Scenario Planning, Lincoln Ins>tute of Land Policy, [email protected] 

What is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a structured process to support decision-making that helps urban and rural planners navigate the uncertainty of the future in the short and long term. 

Why is scenario planning important? Rural and urban planners commonly face 3 challenges: Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes or uncertain>es Public engagement without communica>on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others 1 2 3 

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes 

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes 

#1 - Planning processes that are difficult to adjust to sudden changes 

Transparent underlying decision making structure with clear variables Know when an impac]ul change occurred, enables periodic “refreshing” Step-by-step framework will help clarify where transparency is lacking Requirement: In order to: Good news: 

#2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs 

#2 - Public engagement without communica1on of interconnected issues and tradeoffs 

Professionals understand concepts well first Incorporated into the “stakeholder and public engagement” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Boil down concepts to an accessible level for the public 

#3 - Planning processes lacking clarity of quality of life outcomes such as equity, health, economic development, and others 

Organiza>on has worked with staff, stakeholders, and public to clarify quality of life outcomes Incorporated into the “direc>on sebng” step in the framework Requirement: In order to: Good news: Enable transparency about the outcomes 

Scenario planning involves rethinking the planning process to increase flexibility, improve public engagement, and/or clarify the outcomes of focus. Not all 3 need to be done at once, but can build upon each other. Scenario planning is not parallel or separate to the planning process. It is a way to build elements of flexibility into your own current planning process. 

Why did Metrolinx decide to have a scenario planning component within its planning process? Tell us a bit about the broader planning process that it supported. 

Review of the RTP 

Requirement to Align with Growth Plan 

21 

Key facts about the GTHA’s transporta>on system 

The region is growing 

The region is growing 

Travel demand is growing 

The popula>on is aging 

New op>ons are emerging …and will con>nue to change… 

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Step-by-Step Framework 

Founda1on Building 

What were the central and interconnected issues addressed through the scenario planning process? And how does these pertain to drivers of change? 

Key ques>ons for the 2041 RTP •  How will region grown into the future – where will people live, work and play? •  What is the future role for transit in the region? •  How might technology change the way transporta>on op>ons func>on? •  What are the important inter-dependencies to the transporta>on system? •  What are the most resilient transporta>on strategies in the face of an uncertain future? •  How can the transporta>on plan help drive desired outcomes - environmental, land-use, economic development, quality of life? 

Travel Demand and Mode Share for different travel markets *6:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. 

Mode share (peak period) 

Drivers of Change Popula1on Size & Distribu1on Ac1vity Loca1ons Lifestyle, Preferences & Behaviours Immigra1on Genera1onal Shic Land Value Property Prices Job Availability Employment Type Fer1lity Rates Educa1onal Ins1tu1ons Local Culture 2nd Degree 3rd Degree Nth Degree Transporta1on Op1ons Automa1on Global Economy Lifestyle Trends Climate Change Carbon Tax Geopoli1cal Shic P olicy E conomy S ociety T echnology L egal E nvironment Re-Shoring Robo1cs Global Trade 

Which factors did Metrolinx have more control over, and which factors did it have less control over? 

Realm of Control Regional Bus and Rail Service OTHERS Transit Infrastructure Implementa>on Regional Farecard Long Range Planning Regional Fare Integra>on Local Bus and Rail (metro) Service Regional Land Use Policy Roads and Highways Local Development Development at Regional Transit Sta>ons Local Fare Policy Everything Else… 

What assump1ons did Metrolinx have when they began the scenario planning process, and how did levels of certainty vary? 

Assump1ons around Magnitude of Impact Different from the base case Areas of impact such as: •  Popula>on change and distribu>on •  Cost of Transporta>on •  Employment Mix •  Adop>on of Automated Vehicles •  Extent of Climate Change •  Etc. Scenario implica>ons table used to capture major assump>ons across areas of impact Valida>on of Assump>ons through a Delphi Survey with Subject MaRer Experts Implica>ons Workshop Exercise Consolidate into Model Inputs 

Direc1on Sehng 

What scenarios, or plausible future states, ended up being considered? Which type of scenario planning was used (norma>ve, predic>ve, or exploratory), or was there a mix? 

Six Alterna1ve Futures for the Region 

Scenario planning •  Alterna>ve Scenarios have been modelled to consider how the RTP’s strategies can be resilient and flexible under a range of possible future condi>ons. 

Scenario Variables 

Regional traveller personas More likely to: 

Scenario 2: Rapid adop>on of technology As a suburban traveler who is looking for beRer transporta>on op>ons, Susan will: •  Experience longer commutes as autonomous vehicle (AV) technology creates incen>ves for her to move further out •  Choose AVs a preferred mode of transporta>on •  Be less likely to use transit than today Frustrated Solu>on Seeker 

Response & Ac1on Planning 

Stakeholder & Public Engagement 

How did the scenario planning process inform quan1ta1ve and qualita1ve approaches? How did this scenario planning process relate to tradi1onal planning and modeling tools? 

2041 Regional Transporta>on Plan – vision, goals and strategies The GTHA will have a sustainable transportation system that is aligned with land use, and supports healthy and complete communities. The system will provide safe, convenient and reliable connections, and support a high quality of life, a prosperous and competitive economy, and a protected environment. 

Linkages between scenarios 

Modelled Scenarios 1.  Growth Plan: Popula>on and employment controls consistent with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2.  Market: Popula>on and employment controls derived from an assessment of the present state of land development and current trends 3.  Boom: Higher growth totals than Growth Plan; more growth beyond Greenbelt; lower auto opera>ng costs 4.  Bust: Lower growth totals than the Growth Plan; auto opera>ng costs increase; higher transit fares 

Modelled outcomes 

Tell us about how Metrolinx approached programs and projects with the scenarios. 

Preliminary por]olios Five preliminary por]olios were constructed to fit within an assumed $2 billion (annual) cost envelope. A.  Focused primarily on infrastructure to support transit, with suppor>ng strategies similar to The Big Move B.  Greater focus on opera1ons and op1miza1on of exis>ng systems, with limited infrastructure and suppor>ng policies C.  Heavily focused on ac1ve transporta1on ini>a>ves, including AT infrastructure D.  Primarily focused on pricing/transporta1on demand management (TDM)* E.  Transit-oriented land use policy and transporta>on ini>a>ves that support complete communi>es *Por]olio D includes pricing mechanisms that expand revenue available for infrastructure/opera>ons. The Next Transporta>on Plan A porjolio is a grouping of projects, programs and policies to reflect a key emphasis, such as pricing/transporta>on demand management (TDM) 

Resiliency analysis framework Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Portfolio A Portfolio B Portfolio C Portfolio D Portfolio E Assessment of Portfolio Performance against Conditions under Alternative Future Scenarios 

Infrastructure Operations Active Transportation Pricing/ TDM Land-Use Infrastructure Operations Active Transportation Pricing/ TDM Land-Use Infrastructure Operations Active Transportation Pricing/ TDM Land-Use Infrastructure Operations Active Transportation Pricing/ TDM Land-Use 

Resiliency analysis of strategic direc>ons 

Did Metrolinx come to major conclusions as an immediate result of the scenario planning process? 

A Shis in emphasis The Next RTP will have increasing emphasis on strategies other than rapid transit infrastructure. 

For more informa>on •  Visit www.metrolinx.com/theplan to find: •  The Dras Final 2041 RTP •  The Making It Happen Paper •  Engagement Report on the Dras 2041 RTP •  Final Report and Recommenda>ons of the Residents’ Reference Panel •  The Discussion Paper (2016) •  Background Papers •  Academic Research 

Audience Ques1ons 

What is the Consor1um? It provides training and peer exchange to support professionals as they get started with scenario planning and take it to more advanced levels. Who can benefit? Urban, regional, and rural planners and managers, as well as others, are welcome. Official partners include: How can I learn more? Become a par>cipant or join the mailing list by visi>ng the website at scenarioplanning.io or contac>ng Janae at [email protected]. 

Upcoming Summer Scenarios www.scenarioplanning.io/summer-scenarios/ Transporta>on Planning: How scenario planning can support performance-based planning Public Outreach: How scenario planning can be used as an engagement technique People and Economies: How quan>ta>ve regional scenarios can set the table for policy and planning July 18 August 7 August 29 

Upcoming Consor1um Conference hRp://www.scenarioplanning.io/conferences/ September 12-14 in Columbus, Ohio with host agency Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission Save the Date Call for Proposals Call for session proposals through July 10 

Thank you to the presenters and aRendees! Contact [email protected] with ques>ons.