坂本勇人さん改め山田哲人さんの成績予測をやってみた / Baseball Play Study 2020 Winter

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ࡔຊ༐ਓ͸͍ͭ௨ࢉ3,000ຊ҆ଧΛ ୡ੒͢Δ͔AIʹฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠ Baseball Play Study 2020ౙ - γʔζϯৼΓฦΓεϖγϟϧ 2020/12/17 Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke)

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ϫΠʮઌ೔ಉ͡࿩ΛଞॴͰͨ͠Α͏ͳʯ

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͋ͬʢ࡯͠ʣ ೔༵೔ʹʮSports Analyst Meetup #9ʯͰLTͪ͠Όͬͯ·ͨ͠ https://speakerdeck.com/shinyorke/hayato-sakamoto-performance-prediction-using-feature-engineering-with-machine-learning-and-python

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ʲ݁࿦ʳࡔຊ༐ਓબखͷ༧ଌ੒੷ 39ࡀͷγʔζϯ, ͖ͬͱΈΜͳʹॕ෱͞ΕΔͰ͠ΐ͏

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ʲ݁࿦ʳࡔຊ͞Μ3,000҆ଧ͸39ࡀ   ※2028೥γʔζϯ, ͋͘·ͰݟࠐΈͰ͢

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ΊͰͨ͠ΊͰͨ͠ ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠

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͍΍͍΍, ͜ΕͰऴΘΕΜͩΖʢ਒͑ʣ

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ͪΌΜͱωλ, ༻ҙͯ͠·͢

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ॕɾࢁా఩ਓ༷ϠΫϧτ࢒ཹ ௕ظܖ໿ظؒͷ੒੷Λ   AIʹ፻଄ͤ͞ฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠ Baseball Play Study 2020ౙ - γʔζϯৼΓฦΓεϖγϟϧ 2020/12/17 Shinichi Nakagawa(@shinyorke)

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ຊ೔ͷςʔϚ • ϠΫϧτ͍΍೔ຊϓϩ໺ٿͷਓؒࠃๅͱݴͬͯ΋աݴͰ͸ͳ͍   ࢁా఩ਓબख͕ҰମͲΕ΄Ͳͷ੒੷Λࠓޙ࢒͢ͷ͔઎͏ • ͿͬͪΌ͚ܖ໿ֹۚ෼ͷ׆༂͢Δͷ͔?͖ʹͳΔ • ΍͖͏AI͍ͥͬͯ͢͝Θ͔ͬͯ͘ΕͨΒخ͍͠ʢ͜ͳΈʣ

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Who am I ?ʢ͓લ୭Αʣ • Shinichi Nakagawaʢத઒ ৳Ұʣ • େ఍ͷSNSͰʮshinyorkeʢ͠ΜΑʔ͘ʣʯͱ໊৐͍ͬͯ·͢ • JX Press Corporation Senior Engineer   ʢJX௨৴ࣾ γχΞɾΤϯδχΞʣ • Baseball Engineer, Data Scientist   ʢ໺ੜͷ໺ٿΤϯδχΞɾσʔλαΠΤϯςΟετʣ • ࣗশʮBaseball Play StudyͷϨδΣϯυʯ, ݩɾϓϩͷ໺ٿΤϯδχΞ • ࠷ۙ, 12ٿஂതѪओٛऀʹͳΓ·ͨ͠ʢ͕஍ݩ๺ւಓͳͷͰ೔ϋϜ͖ʹͳΔʣ.

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ඵͰৼΓฦΔ2020೥ͷϓϩ໺ٿ • όϯςϦϯυʔϜφΰϠ, ര஀ • ౦ژυʔϜબख, Ҡ੶ʢ༧ఆʣ • 26 - 4ʢ࡯͠ʣ • ࢁా఩ਓબख, 7೥૯ֹ40ԯԁʢਪఆʣͰϠΫϧτ࢒ཹ

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ࢁా఩ਓ͞Μͷ7೥40ԯԁͱ͔͍͏ܖ໿ • ೥เ5ԯԁʢʴΠϯηϯςΟϒʣ×7೥, Β͍͠. • ϑΝϯ͸ΈΜͳخ͍͠Ͱ͠ΐ͏, ϫΠ΋خ͍͠Ͱ͢. • ΋͏ҰਓͷϫΠʮ40ԯԁͬͯݩ͕औΕΔΜ΍Ζ͔ʯ

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…ͱ͍͏༁Ͱ, ໺ٿAI͞Μʹฉ͍ͯΈ·ͨ͠.

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ࠓճ࢖͏΍͖͏ͷਓ޻஌ೳ PyCon JP 2020Ͱ΍ͬͨ΍ʔͭΛͦͷ··࢖͍·ͨ͠ʢ#spoana ͱಉ͡Ͱ͢ʣ. https://shinyorke.hatenablog.com/entry/baseball-and-ml-with-python

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ͻͱ·ͣ݁ՌΛ͓ݟͤ͠·͢.

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙ - ҆ଧɾຊྥଧɾଧ఺ 150҆ଧͪΐ͍, 17ʙ19ຊྥଧΛՔ͗ͭͭ, 70ଧ఺Ҏ্Ք͙੒੷

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙ - ଧ཰ 32, 33ࡀ͋ͨΓͰಥવ޼ଧʹ໨֮Ίͯͯ໘ന͍݁Ռʹ

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷࠓޙΛ·ͱΊΔͱ ͜ΕͰͣͬͱηΧϯυ΍ͬͯ͘ΕΔͳΒ͗͢͢͝Ͱ͸ ͑?τϦϓϧεϦʔ??͏ʔʔΜ ೥౓ ೥ྸ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷ௨ࢉ੒੷ʢ༧ଌʣ ͜ΕͰηΧϯυͬͯڧ͗͢͸͠·ͤΜ͔ʢ਒͑ʣ ظؒ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰ ೥·Ͱ ˞ݱ࣮ ˞༧ଌ੒੷ ௨ࢉʢ༧ଌʣ

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷ͷ௨ࢉ੒੷ʢ༧ଌʣ ͜ΕͰηΧϯυͬͯڧ͗͢͸͠·ͤΜ͔ʢ਒͑ʣ ظؒ ଧ਺ ҆ଧ ຊྥଧ ଧ఺ ଧ཰ ೥·Ͱ ˞ݱ࣮ ˞༧ଌ੒੷ ௨ࢉʢ༧ଌʣ 334ͪΌ͏Μ͔ʔ͍

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ࢁా఩ਓ༷2027ʢ34ʣ͕࢒͢ه࿥ • ௨ࢉຊྥଧɾଧ఺ɾଧ཰Ͱߴ໦कಓࢯΛ௒͑Δ • ௨ࢉ2,236҆ଧͰ໊ٿձೖΓ·ͬͨͳ͠ • ໊࣮ͱ΋ʹϓϩ໺ٿ্࢙࠷ڧͷηΧϯυʹͳΔՄೳੑ

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ͱ͸͍͑Ͱ͢Α • 7೥ܖ໿தͷτϦϓϧεϦʔʢ3ׂ30ຊྥଧ30౪ྥʣ͸ଟ෼ແཧ • ਓ޻஌ೳ͸500ଧ੮Ҏ্Ք͙༧ଌΛ͍ͯ͠Δ͚Ͳ,   ఩ਓ༷Ҋ֎ނোͱ͔཭୤͋Δͷ͕ͪΐͬͱ৺഑ • ηΧϯυ͸कඋෛ୲͕͔ͳΓ͋ΔϙδγϣϯͳͷͰ   ଧྗΛ׆͔ͨ͢Ίͷίϯόʔτ΋͋Δ͔΋͠Εͳ͍

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݁࿦ • ೔ຊҰͷηΧϯυʹͳΓͦ͏ͳͷͰ7೥40ԯͷܖ໿͸ଟ෼ଥ౰ • ͱ͸͍͑େࣄʹ࢖ͬͯཉ͍͠, ͋ΔҙຯਓؒࠃๅͰ͢͠ • ͘Ε͙Ε΋਎ମʹؾΛ͚ͭͯؤுͬͯ΄͍͠ʂ

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ήʔϜηοτ⚾ ͝ਗ਼ௌ͋Γ͕ͱ͏͍͟͝·ͨ͠. Shinichi Nakagawa(Twitter/Facebook/etc… @shinyorke)