Managing for Serendipity - Remote Version

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Liz Keogh @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com @lunivore

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CC-BY-SA 4.0 Bjoervedt Anchiornis Huxleyi

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CC-BY 4.0 Dinoguy2

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CC-BY-SA 3.0 N. Tamura

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@lunivore Exaptation

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Complicated Obvious Chaotic Complex sense-analyse-respond sense-categorise-respond probe-sense-respond act-sense-respond Governing constraints Fixed constraints Enabling constraints No effective constraint Good Practice Best Practice Emergent Practice Novel Practice Material in this slide is Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. Used with kind permission. Cynefin

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@lunivore

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@lunivore

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A Safe-To-Fail Probe has… Indicators of success Indicators of failure Amplification actions Dampening actions Coherence http://cognitive-edge.com/methods/safe-to-fail-probes/

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Coherence A realistic reason for thinking the probe might have a positive impact A sufficiency of evidence to progress Can you give me an example? @lunivore

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In uncertainty… coherence over hypothesis @lunivore

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Correlated in Retrospect n t @lunivore

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@lunivore G.H.R. Koenigswald CC BY-SA 3.0 Tropenmuseum

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@lunivore “…the company that put more emphasis on profit in its declaration of objectives was the less profitable in its financial statements.” - John Kay

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@lunivore Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0 Walkman by Esa Sorjonen Space invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0 Car Genie copyright AA

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@lunivore My favourite thing

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@lunivore http://www.goodexperience.com/blog/ 2011/04/ignore-the-customer-e.php

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@lunivore

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“Humans do not make rational logical decisions… they pattern match with either their own experience, or collective experience expressed as stories. It isn’t even a best fit pattern match but a first fit pattern match.” - Dave Snowden, “Managing for Serendipity” @lunivore

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@lunivore

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@lunivore “We may conclude from an effect to the pre-existence of a cause competent to produce that effect.“ - Thomas Henry Huxley CC-BY-SA 3.0 N. Tamura

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@lunivore With kind permission of Dr Lucy King (pictured) http://elephantsandbees.com

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@lunivore

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“Once prototypes are set free in the market, they will link with the nearly infinite universe of idiosyncratic needs, contexts, wants and combinatorial imagination of users out there.” - Pierpaolo Andriani (via Tim Kastelle, “Innovation through Exaptation”) @lunivore

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Radical Emergence “Some things that weren’t possible at all before suddenly become possible. A valley opens up where there was a mountain ahead of you before.” - Alicia Juarrero @lunivore

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A Wardley Map Simon Wardley CC-BY-SA 3.0 Not just the customers you’ve got, but the customers you could have.

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@lunivore O-S Late D Cap P-Tr Tr-J K-Pg %age of marine animal genera extinct ma

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http://lizkeogh.com “Off the Charts”

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@lunivore

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@lunivore Liz Keogh liz@lunivore.com @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com

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Resources: Dave Snowden, Managing for Serendipity Alicia Juarrero, Constraints that enable innovation Tim Kastelle, Innovation through Exaptation Dave King, Using technology to facilitate “aha” moments @lunivore