Surveying the Landscape — November 2016

Slide 1

Slide 1 text

Surveying the Landscape November 2016

Slide 2

Slide 2 text

Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

Slide 3

Slide 3 text

No content

Slide 4

Slide 4 text

The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon

Slide 5

Slide 5 text

Apps Android, iOS

Slide 6

Slide 6 text

In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished. Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman

Slide 7

Slide 7 text

App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

Slide 8

Slide 8 text

No content

Slide 9

Slide 9 text

Apple Universal links

Slide 10

Slide 10 text

Doorslams At best, very annoying

Slide 11

Slide 11 text

twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

Slide 12

Slide 12 text

Advertising And worse, tracking

Slide 13

Slide 13 text

secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

Slide 14

Slide 14 text

Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/

Slide 15

Slide 15 text

21% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

Slide 16

Slide 16 text

Global economic cost of using ad blockers 2013 2014 2015 2016 wordstream.com/blog/ws/2015/10/02/ad-blockers $7.2bn $11.7bn $21.8bn $41.4bn

Slide 17

Slide 17 text

I think the lovers of the web really need to be on the lookout for better ways to fund what we want to see out of this technology. theverge.com/2016/11/15/13465796/tim-wu-interview-attention-merchants-advertising-donald-trump Tim Wu

Slide 18

Slide 18 text

Monetisation Free, ad-supported isn’t sustainable

Slide 19

Slide 19 text

Having a legacy business configured around a website is now almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell

Slide 20

Slide 20 text

The New Day Launched with no website.

Slide 21

Slide 21 text

The idea won’t be to start a website. That will be dead.  The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams

Slide 22

Slide 22 text

No content

Slide 23

Slide 23 text

Running our own blog system is a classic case of the cobbler’s shoe syndrome. m.signalvnoise.com/signal-v-noise-moves-to-medium-c8083ce19686 David Heinemeier Hansson

Slide 24

Slide 24 text

A lot of designers are still focused on building websites and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax

Slide 25

Slide 25 text

Mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is distributed. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax

Slide 26

Slide 26 text

Industry Changes Acquisitions, closures

Slide 27

Slide 27 text

nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html Everyone else New $ spent in US online advertising, Q1 2016

Slide 28

Slide 28 text

Facebook 1.7bn monthly active users 3.45bn 1.7bn

Slide 29

Slide 29 text

portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

Slide 30

Slide 30 text

Platforms Medium, Twitter, iOS, esp. Facebook

Slide 31

Slide 31 text

Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

Slide 32

Slide 32 text

A company that can claim nearly every internet-using adult as a user is less a partner than a context. nytimes.com/2016/08/28/magazine/inside-facebooks-totally-insane-unintentionally-gigantic-hyperpartisan-political-media-machine.html John Herrman

Slide 33

Slide 33 text

The new technologies of the 20th century eventually evolved into privately controlled industrial behemoths through which the flow and nature of content would be strictly controlled. The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires Tim Wu

Slide 34

Slide 34 text

Nigel Farage/Twitter

Slide 35

Slide 35 text

Technology has made objective truth a casualty to the pursuit of happiness — or engagement, to use the — technical term and now life and liberty hang in the balance. stratechery.com/2016/why-twitter-must-be-saved/ Ben Thompson

Slide 36

Slide 36 text

0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet

Slide 37

Slide 37 text

108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM

Slide 38

Slide 38 text

1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters

Slide 39

Slide 39 text

15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR

Slide 40

Slide 40 text

The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

Slide 41

Slide 41 text

The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod

Slide 42

Slide 42 text

Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod

Slide 43

Slide 43 text

Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited. In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani

Slide 44

Slide 44 text

qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Self-identified internet users and Facebook users per 100 people 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 Indonesia Philippines Thailand Internet Facebook

Slide 45

Slide 45 text

The amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod

Slide 46

Slide 46 text

Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’ Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms

Slide 47

Slide 47 text

No content

Slide 48

Slide 48 text

Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host content within their own app and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan

Slide 49

Slide 49 text

AMP?

Slide 50

Slide 50 text

AMP is coming to eat our mobile page views. But AMP loads super, super quickly and is simply a better experience right now. theverge.com/2016/10/6/13188306/refreshing-the-verge-facebook-video-google-amp-future-of-the-web Nilay Patel

Slide 51

Slide 51 text

Instant Articles Stories rendered in Facebook UI

Slide 52

Slide 52 text

Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

Slide 53

Slide 53 text

Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

Slide 54

Slide 54 text

Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

Slide 55

Slide 55 text

Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com

Slide 56

Slide 56 text

The more it succeeds, the more Facebook warps a universe of internet content, industry norms, and consumer habits around itself. wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/ Davey Alba

Slide 57

Slide 57 text

Facebook in effect becomes the mobile internet. wired.com/2016/08/facebook-isnt-just-good-mobile-mobile-works-now/ Davey Alba

Slide 58

Slide 58 text

Shopping & Services Facebook venturebeat.com/2016/08/03/facebook-adds-shopping-and-services-sections-to-pages

Slide 59

Slide 59 text

In a way, Facebook [has] made the browser wars irrelevant by essentially itself becoming the browser. medium.freecodecamp.com/ghost-in-the-machine-snapchat-isnt-mobile-first-it-s-something-else-entirely-4f6c265152a2 Ben Basche

Slide 60

Slide 60 text

Dominant Social Platforms ஙמ (WeChat), Line, Kakao

Slide 61

Slide 61 text

Share of daily mobile time spent  (approx. 200mins), China, April 2016. All other Baidu Alibaba Tencent other QQ WeChat kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report

Slide 62

Slide 62 text

Messaging Platforms Messenger, Kik, Slack

Slide 63

Slide 63 text

Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

Slide 64

Slide 64 text

Daily and weekly use cases dominate the apps that get downloaded and used. But what about the software we use less often… Sarah Guo news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

Slide 65

Slide 65 text

… the brands we may interact with once only every few months, or spontaneously when we don’t have a fast connection? Sarah Guo news.greylock.com/the-conversational-economy-whats-causing-the-bot-craze-4dd8f1b44ba1

Slide 66

Slide 66 text

Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

Slide 67

Slide 67 text

Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new web pages. Anthony Green

Slide 68

Slide 68 text

twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

Slide 69

Slide 69 text

Apps in Messaging iMessage, Allo, FB Messenger

Slide 70

Slide 70 text

Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

Slide 71

Slide 71 text

Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

Slide 72

Slide 72 text

Wow… that was heavy.

Slide 73

Slide 73 text

twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

Slide 74

Slide 74 text

5% 95% twitter.com/lukew/status/783352086553473024 5% 15% 37% 43% Web Share of time spent on mobile Native Most-used Next Four Others

Slide 75

Slide 75 text

The best way to reach new consumers is through the open web. Jason Karaian

Slide 76

Slide 76 text

Access method for mobile shoppers % France Italy Spain UK Germany 52.1 59.3 43.1 44.7 41.9 60.1 60.5 66.4 66.6 67.3 Browser App comscore.com/Insights/Data-Mine/Mobile-App-vs-Mobile-Browser

Slide 77

Slide 77 text

WeChat ஙמ

Slide 78

Slide 78 text

While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first), in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso

Slide 79

Slide 79 text

App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

Slide 80

Slide 80 text

twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

Slide 81

Slide 81 text

No content

Slide 82

Slide 82 text

Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

Slide 83

Slide 83 text

Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

Slide 84

Slide 84 text

Many brands are finding that their mobile apps are not paying off. They simply haven’t delivered the level of adoption and customer engagement that companies expected. gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/gartner-predicts-a-virtual-world-of-exponential-change/ Gartner

Slide 85

Slide 85 text

wired.com/2016/04/wait-web-isnt-really-dead-google-made-sure

Slide 86

Slide 86 text

No content

Slide 87

Slide 87 text

twitter.com/beep/status/741335390964092928

Slide 88

Slide 88 text

Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar

Slide 89

Slide 89 text

Physical Web Nearby Notifications

Slide 90

Slide 90 text

Physical Web Nearby Notifications

Slide 91

Slide 91 text

Rich local discovery Contextual actions expressed in site

Slide 92

Slide 92 text

No content

Slide 93

Slide 93 text

Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

Slide 94

Slide 94 text

Choosing the web to enable experiences in the physical world doesn’t just expand the possibility space for IoT, it compels us to re-think the very shape of the web… slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people …

Slide 95

Slide 95 text

… from a network of monolithic ‘destinations’ to one of small, non-linear, distributed, and serendipitously discoverable (and ideally shareable) experiences. slideshare.net/yiibu/the-internet-of-things-is-for-people Stephanie & Bryan Rieger

Slide 96

Slide 96 text

Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

Slide 97

Slide 97 text

In the context of AR, equating the browser to web is not only inaccurate but limiting. medium.com/web-ar/new-challenges-ar-will-pose-for-the-web-48b754dfcdbc ‘saranyan’

Slide 98

Slide 98 text

If we are going to continue to use “the web” as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock

Slide 99

Slide 99 text

I don’t define “the web” as websites alone, but rather as any user experience that’s delivered across multiple channels and devices. recode.net/2016/6/3/11841458/heres-how-the-web-gets-conversation-optimized Dries Buytaert

Slide 100

Slide 100 text

What if everything was powered by “The Web”, but you never saw a browser? medium.com/dev-channel/the-headless-web-de81ab21651f Paul Kinlan

Slide 101

Slide 101 text

androidauthority.com/android-7-0-features-673002

Slide 102

Slide 102 text

Watch software is, in a sense, a notification framework for your iPhone app. The Watch is merely the delivery device for it. Joshua Porter blog.rocketinsights.com/we-partnered-with-virgin-pulse-to-design-and-build-their-apple-watch-app

Slide 103

Slide 103 text

twitter.com/lukew/status/751438493650264066

Slide 104

Slide 104 text

A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly

Slide 105

Slide 105 text

Embedded content Powered by the web

Slide 106

Slide 106 text

The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger

Slide 107

Slide 107 text

Messenger Web Views Messenger enriched by the web

Slide 108

Slide 108 text

twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

Slide 109

Slide 109 text

From a web of destinations to a web of experiences and interactions.

Slide 110

Slide 110 text

I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen

Slide 111

Slide 111 text

Longread version: https://medium.com/rehabstudio/surveying-the-landscape-4d7127a7d53f