Getting cozy with complexity March 29, 2016

Jeff Mohr Cofounder & CEO, Kumu my background SYSTEMS NETWORKS SOCIAL CHANGE

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•  Develop a deep understanding of what is driving current behavior •  Make the space to reframe and find new solutions, include diverse views •  See more, not always take on more •  Share stories about complexity that engage others, not overwhelm •  NOT about the perfect or “final” map •  Today is a MUCH accelerated version

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Image&via&Donella&Meadows&Ins1tute& Headlines Graphs/ Trends Causal maps

Source:&NYTimes.com&

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To recap •  Headlines tell us what is happening now •  Trends tell us what has been changing over time •  Causal maps help us understand why

Warmup (5 minutes) In your groups, brainstorm examples of each of the below for your assigned topic: •  Events •  Patterns •  Structures/mental models

Our journey today… Step 1: Pick your frame Step 2: Get to know the actors Step 3: Identify and connect key factors Step 4: Draw loops of the core dynamics Step 5: Find the deep structure Step 6: Pull it all together

Our journey today… Step 1: Pick your frame Step 2: Get to know the actors Step 3: Identify and connect key factors Step 4: Draw loops of the core dynamics Step 5: Find the deep structure Step 6: Pull it all together

PICK YOUR FRAME 1

Pick your frame •  Don’t try to map everything •  Use a question to focus your mapping: –  Despite our best intentions, why have we been unable to solve ___________? –  What forces account for ___________? –  Why are things the way they are? •  Focus on the current state

Why have we been unable to meet the needs of Syrian refugee children, who are not in school and have often been out of school for up to 5 years?

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GET TO KNOW THE ACTORS 2

Consider asking… •  Who’s involved? Who influences the dynamics we see? •  Who would be affected by any changes we might make? •  Who is needed to create the desired change?

Unpack their persona For each stakeholder group: •  What do they care most about? •  What do they uniquely believe? •  What are they constrained by? •  How aligned are they with your desired change? •  How influential are they? With who?

Syrian children & parents Care more about going to school, catching up on lost years, and finding normalcy through education. Host Country Governments Care most about securing international support/ funding; meeting the needs of their citizens in addition to refugees; maintaining quality public services for both groups International funders Care most about finding initiatives that support refugees where their contributions can have maximum impact UNHCR & UNICEF Care most about meeting the needs of refugees; finding implementing partners like MECI to deliver quality programming; and securing enough funding to be able to do so

Exercise (10 Minutes) •  Create a framing question for your group and write it on your paper •  Build a list of the stakeholder groups involved (aim for between 5 - 15 distinct groups) •  Pick two stakeholder groups and write a persona for them

IDENTIFY AND CONNECT KEY FACTORS 3

enablers inhibitors

Refugees' commitment to helping/volunteering Skilled educators in host countries Positive coordination among NGOs NGO experience & capacity to carry out programs Growing media attention on the issue Huge and growing number of refugees Poverty Restrictions around refugee employment Not enough financial support from international community / donor fatigue Safety Overcrowded classrooms Trauma

hurts behaviors policies beliefs

s" hurts behaviors policies beliefs what people think and value (attitudes, norms, views of other groups)

hurts behaviors policies beliefs the actions people take (processes and skills of key people)

hurts behaviors policies beliefs rules and structures (systems, institutions, rule of law)

behaviors policies beliefs refugees' commitment to helping/volunteering positive coordination among NGOs restrictions around refugee employment

causes FACTOR effects

huge influx of Syrian refugees overstretched systems OVERCROWDED CLASSROOMS poor education quality resentment by host communities

Exercise (10 Minutes) •  Lists as many enablers and inhibitors you can think of and cluster into themes •  Categorize each as primarily a matter of beliefs, behaviors, or policies •  Pick 3 factors that feel especially important and identify two causes and two effects for each

DRAW LOOPS OF THE CORE DYNAMICS 4

The world isn’t linear

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VS.

VS.

Source: W.K. Kellogg Foundation Logic Model Development Guide

” “ We must take care not to oversimplify an exceedingly complex and dynamic reality. This is a common mistake…resulting in a great deal of bad conventional wisdom. Larry Kramer & Daniel Stid, Hewlett Foundation

Tips for building loops •  Focus on mapping what seem like the “core” dynamics of the system •  Use the factors and initial connections you’ve created in the enablers/inhibitors and causes/ effects exercise as building blocks •  Don’t go overboard with how many factors are in a given loop (roughly 3-7 factors) •  Label each connection as ‘same’ or ‘opposite’ •  Categorize the loop as either ‘balancing’ or ‘reinforcing’

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Exercise (10 Minutes) •  Use the enablers/inhibitors and cause/ effect brainstorm as a starting point to build a loop on your own (5 minutes) •  Share your loop with your group. •  As a group, try to create two more loops or improve upon the loops created individually.

FIND THE DEEP STRUCTURE 5

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In narrative form There are two fundamental tensions: -  Commitment to the institution of congress vs. commitment to party -  Influence of a representative and engaged electorate vs. influence of policy demanders and party activists In both cases, we’re leaning towards the side that encourages further partisanship and dysfunction.

Tips for finding your deep structure •  Which factors and causal relationships show up in multiple loops? •  What underlying story seems to be at the heart of this issue? •  What keeps coming up across each of your stakeholder interviews? •  “You can’t understand [INSERT TOPIC] without understanding ___________ .”

PULL IT ALL TOGETHER 6

Tips •  Take the other loops you’ve created and add them onto your deep structure •  Try to reflect the primary dynamics, not every last detail of how the system works •  Indicate which causal linkages and loops are stronger or weaker and which factors are actively changing •  Build a compelling narrative to walk people through your map without overwhelming them

Reflections •  What was most challenging about this process? Where did you get stuck? •  What were your key learnings? •  Which of the values Rebecca discussed were reinforced in this process? Do you see why they would be more important?

Thanks to… •  Rob Ricigliano •  Karen Grattan •  Gene Bellinger •  Banny Banerjee •  Scott Spann •  Jim Ritchie-Dunham