Surveying the Landscape

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Surveying the Landscape June ’16

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I Am Peter Gasston Senior C.T. at +rehabstudio @stopsatgreen

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The realistic danger isn’t that the web disappears, but that it gets marginalized. medium.com/@cdixon/the-internet-economy-fc43f3eff58a Chris Dixon

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Threats to the prosperity of the web Commoditisation Apps App-only Strategy Instant Apps Apple & Google Advertising / Tracking Monetisation Platforms Instant Articles Canvas Ads Bots Headless Voice UI Performance

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Commoditisation Squarespace, Grid

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Commoditisation of AI Watson, Cognitive Services

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Apps Android, iOS

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twitter.com/zachleat/status/731659515154681857

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In 2016, the still-vast and still-growing web is comparatively diminished. Slightly newer platforms, such as Instagram and Vine, hardly touch it; Snapchat doesn’t even acknowledge it. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman

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App-only Strategy e.g. Myntra, Flipkart

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Apple Universal links; static Safari

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Android Instant Apps On-demand app fragments

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Google Search (Android) Pages open in-app, not browser

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Doorslams At best, very annoying

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Advertising / Tracking Chilling Effect

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secretmedia.com/secretmedianews

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Nearly one in two internet users say privacy and security concerns have stopped them from doing basic things online. washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/05/13/new-government-data-shows-a-staggering-number-of-americans-have-stopped-basic-online-activities/

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22% of smartphone users block ads from mobile web. pagefair.com/blog/2016/mobile-adblocking-report

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kpcb.com/internet-trends

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Ad-blockers reduced income from online advertising by $22bn in 2014. technologyreview.com/s/601581/how-ad-blockers-have-triggered-an-arms-race-on-the-web

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Monetisation Collapse

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In the first quarter of 2016, 85 cents of every new dollar spent in online advertising will go to Google or Facebook. nytimes.com/2016/04/18/business/media-websites-battle-falteringad-revenue-and-traffic.html

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Having a legacy business configured around a website is now almost as much of a headache as the rumbling printing press, fuelled by paper and money. theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/21/publishers-adblocking-advertising-mobile Emily Bell

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The New Day No website.

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The idea won’t be to start a website. That will be dead.  The individual website won’t matter. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ …

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The internet is not going to be about billions of people going to millions of websites. It will be about getting it from centralised websites. forbes.com/sites/roberthof/2015/09/09/mediums-evan-williams-to-publishers-your-website-is-toast/ Evan Williams

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A lot of designers are still focused on building websites and I'm not sure that's a growth business anymore. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax

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Platforms Facebook, Medium

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The trend of mobile has fundamentally changed the dynamics of how information is distributed. It turns out that people like feeds. mashable.com/2016/05/30/facebook-end-of-websites Jon Lax

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portals search platforms 1995-2001 2002-2013 2014-

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Upload Complete The Awl theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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Facebook… has gradually replaced, within its platform, parts of the web its users shared most: outside videos; outside articles; outside personal sites; outside listings; outside streams; soon, maybe, outside audio streams. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …

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The platforms that came of age on the web are leaving it behind. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …

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Understood from the perspective of the web, the last five years have represented a sort of tragedy of the commons. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year …

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The platforms grew big and strong. Websites and publishers catered to the needs of those platforms, vague worries about control and identity set aside for the necessary pursuit of audience in an unpredictable environment. theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year John Herrman

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Upload Complete The Awl, on Medium theawl.com/2016/02/been-stuck-at-99-percent-for-like-a-year

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The Next Billion 4bn people online by 2018 (estimate) 0 1 2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Social Media Messaging Internet

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108m people in India came online in 2015 864m not yet online youtube.com/watch?v=E6hGubMkNfM

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1 hour of minimum wage Cost of visiting 15 web pages in India (estimate) Photo: Rupak De Chowdhuri / Reuters

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whatdoesmysitecost.com

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whatdoesmysitecost.com

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15% of avg. months income For 1GB prepaid data in Myanmar (estimate) Photo: Lauren Leatherby / NPR

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The telcos operate on pre-paid systems. Nobody has a credit card. Everyone buys top-up from top-up shops… They feel each megabyte. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 Craig Mod

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Photo: Craig Mod

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The Facebook-Loving Farmers of Myanmar The Atlantic theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812

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Facebook has a compelling advantage over other news apps or even Twitter: The content of many posts and news items live inside Facebook itself. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812 …

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Awareness of the internet in developing countries is very limited. In fact, for many users, Facebook is the internet, as it’s often the only accessible application. qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/ Leo Mirani

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qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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As Facebook continues to ramp up their Instant Articles the amount of content that lives in Facebook will only increase. For those who are data sensitive, this is a clear virtue. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/01/the-facebook-loving-farmers-of-myanmar/424812/ Craig Mod

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Instant Articles Apple News, AMP (e.g. Twitter)

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Stories [shared on Facebook] take an average of eight seconds to load, by far the slowest single content type. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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Instant Articles makes the reading experience as much as ten times faster than standard mobile web articles. media.fb.com/2015/05/12/instantarticles

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Canvas Ads Facebook canvas.facebook.com

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Canvas loads quickly, as much as ten times faster than the standard mobile web. canvas.facebook.com

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Messaging Platforms Messenger

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Messaging apps are the new browsers. Anthony Green

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WeChat ஙמ

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At every time throughout the day, there is a touchpoint between WeChat and your normal life. medium.com/@katie/product-insights-from-wechat-97c51695e159 Stephen Wang

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qz.com/333313/milliions-of-facebook-users-have-no-idea-theyre-using-the-internet/

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Rise of the meta platforms and the new ‘web browser’ Paul Kinlan paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms

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Many of the platforms on mobile are choosing to host content within their own app experience and this is a direct and compelling threat to the web. paul.kinlan.me/rise-of-the-meta-platforms Paul Kinlan

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Bots Messenger, Telegram, Skype

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Messaging apps are the new browsers, bots are the new web pages. Anthony Green

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twitter.com/chrismessina/status/725197835134603264

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Headless Notifications

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Voice / No UI Echo, Google Home

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Wow… that was heavy.

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twitter.com/robertnyman/status/707500942648856577

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The best way to reach new consumers is through the open web. Jason Karaian

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Electron Web-tech desktop apps

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If you want apps that work like the web, the web is still your best choice. wired.com/2016/03/apple-ios-9s-universal-links-recall-the-bad-old-days-of-internet-explorer Klint Finley

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Progressive Web Apps Engaging, Installable, Shareable, FAST developers.google.com/web/progressive-web-apps

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App-only Strategy Flipkart, Myrna

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twitter.com/mikehall314/status/723074895085711360

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Flipkart Lite 70% increase in conversions from home screen icon

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Patagonia End-of-life for iPhone app

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Physical Web Nearby Notifications

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Web Bluetooth Pair with BLE devices

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WeChat ஙמ

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I believe that WeChat is an incredible driver for adoption of mobile web development techniques. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 …

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While in the West companies are still native-first (usually iOS-first), in China the most important presence one may have is a mobile-optimised website. medium.com/@alxdwn/debunking-wechat-e5805e358f8 Alessio Basso

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Light Apps ᫷ଫአ liveapp.cn/case

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Light apps are often single-page, single- message and intended to be single-use. smashingmagazine.com/2015/02/china-web-design-trends-2015 Kendra Schaefer

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Web VR Oculus, Cardboard, etc

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Technology does not have intrinsic value. It has to deliver value by enhancing the way we experience the world around us. wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/11/features/wired-world-2016-yves-behar Yves Behar

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If we are going to continue to use “the web” as a label then it needs to represent a 20+ year vision that transcends web browsers. wirfs-brock.com/allen/posts/459 Allen Wirfs-Brock

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A containerized, embeddable article that travels to any site with brand, revenue, analytics, and links attached. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Kevin Kelly

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The universally accessible, multi-device and multi-context web is there to enhance native infrastructure — not the other way around. medium.com/@stephanierieger/why-conversational-commerce-may-be-our-best-chance-to-re-imagine-the-web-32af5e22f799 Stephanie Rieger

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twitter.com/littlecalculist/status/728328046332121089

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I Am Peter Gasston @stopsatgreen